“White-Haired Stock Guru” Serenity: Technical Analysis is More Like "Trader Astrology"; Should Return to Fundamentals and Capital Structure

Odaily reported that "White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity posted on X platform, stating that technical analysis (TA) is more akin to "astrology for traders," essentially a combination of confirmation bias and market psychology used to gauge market sentiment, rather than a core factor determining price. The significant surges in multiple individual stocks were not driven by chart patterns, but by fundamentals and expectations. For example, SIVE surged approximately 1,900%, driven by the market repricing of future revenue expectations related to JBL and GFS. AXTI rose by about 8,000%, linked to industry logic involving indium phosphide substrates, photonics demand, and export controls.

Technical analysis can primarily only reflect the psychological expectations of market participants. While it might be useful for timing entries, the true drivers of stock price trends should include sector thematic linkages, changes in earnings expectations, the macroeconomic environment, financial performance, and the structure of the circulating supply. The factors that determine a stock's long-term potential should return to fundamentals and capital structure, rather than being based on "chart faith."