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Analysis: Non-farm payroll data still shows significant volatility, and the threshold for the Fed to adjust policy is quite high

2026-04-03 13:33

Odaily News: Zachary Griffiths, Head of Investment Grade Credit at Creditsights, stated: The data is still subject to further downward revisions, with February revised down by 133,000, indicating significant volatility and frequent revisions in the data, which are typically adjusted again during annual reviews. Therefore, it is difficult to derive clear signals from the net data of the past few months. As for the Fed's policy based on this data, the threshold for any policy adjustment is currently very high. I believe they may be in a wait-and-see mode, especially given that we have seen employment data significantly exceeding expectations, which is far above the Fed's discussions regarding the breakeven level corresponding to the unemployment rate. Therefore, we believe the threshold for raising interest rates is higher than for cutting them, but policy is likely to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future, and today's report undoubtedly reinforces this view. (Jin10)