“1011 Insider Whale” Agent: Comparing Current Bitcoin Trend to 2022 is Utterly Absurd

Odaily reported that Garrett Jin, the agent for the "1011 Insider Whale," stated on platform X that recent comparisons by analysts between the current BTC price trend and that of 2022 are completely absurd. The underlying logic differs fundamentally in terms of long-term price patterns, macroeconomic backdrop, investor composition, and supply/holding structure.

1. Macroeconomic Backdrop: In March 2022, the US was experiencing high inflation and a rate-hiking cycle, with capital prioritizing risk avoidance. The current macroeconomic environment is the opposite; CPI and US risk-free interest rates are declining, the AI technological revolution has increased the likelihood of the economy entering a long-term deflationary cycle, interest rates have entered a rate-cutting phase, and capital behavior exhibits risk appetite.

2. Technical Structure: 2021-2022 formed a weekly M-top pattern, whereas the current situation is a weekly breakdown from an ascending channel, which is more likely a bear trap before a rebound back into the channel. The range between $62,000 and $80,850 has seen significant consolidation and turnover, providing better risk-reward for bullish positions.

3. Investor Structure: The market was dominated by retail investors from 2020-2022. Starting from 2023, the launch of BTC ETFs introduced structural long-term holders, locking up supply and significantly reducing volatility. BTC's volatility has shifted from the historical 80%-150% to 30%-60%. The biggest difference between the current (original text stated early 2026) and 2022 BTC investor structure is that the market has transitioned from retail-dominated, high-leverage speculation to institution-dominated, structural long-term holding.