Rising up and regaining lost ground, institutional funds accelerated deployment

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2020-10-14 05:33

This article is about 8632 words, reading the full article takes about 13 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 41st week of 2020.

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Blockchain secondary market report for the 41st week of 2020.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 41st week of 2020

Highlights of this report:

Highlights of this report:

This week's market trend: the upward trend recovers the lost ground, and the institutional funds accelerate the deployment
Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 6.92%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 25.57%
USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading
USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading
Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuated upwards, and market sentiment turned greedy to neutral
Futures contract: The basis spread expands and the volume goes up, and the market remains bullish in the long run
Details of this report:
Summarize

Details of this report:

1. The trend of the market this week: the upward trend recovers the lost ground, and the institutional funds accelerate the deployment

As of the statistical time of the report (October 13, 2020), the average total market capitalization of global blockchain assets this week was US$350.121 billion, an increase of 3.12% from the same period last week; The mean is down 3.88%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 5.10%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 4.79%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 5.43%.

This week, the large-scale market rose to a new high in the near future, and the currencies with large, medium and small market capitalizations rose across the board, and investors' greed was on the rise. At the beginning of the week, the market continued the previous trend and consolidated around US$340 billion. The market accelerated its rise on Friday, recovering the US$350 billion and US$360 billion mark one after another. The daily average value of the market value rose by 3.12% from last week. In the external market, the weak dollar this week boosted risk assets, and global risk assets collectively rose. Bitcoin and U.S. stocks led the gains, with U.S. stocks recording the largest weekly gain in three months. From the perspective of the disk, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated upwards this week, once again broke through the $11,000 point and briefly stood above $11,450. After encountering resistance near $11,750, it entered a rest period and refreshed a nearly one-and-a-half-month high. The overall transaction activity is on the rise , the support levels of various indicators moved up, investors' bullish sentiment gradually warmed up, and the short-term market maintained a bullish sentiment.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 6.92%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of February, the market is positive under the influence of production reduction expectations, and the volume can be enlarged simultaneously; in March, the epidemic spread globally, and the global capital market experienced large fluctuations and panicky declines. Encrypted assets were also hit hard, with a daily trading volume of up to 400 billion yuan; as the global multi-national policies continued to exert force, global assets gradually bottomed out and stabilized under strong stimulus, global risk appetite gradually recovered, and there were obvious signs of bottom-buying funds in the encrypted market. After the panic decline ended, the trading volume of the nine major exchanges fell below 200 billion yuan; the market volume and price increased before the halving of Bitcoin, but the market reaction was flat for a period of time after the completion of the halving, and the volatility narrowed. The range fluctuated, and the trading volume showed a downward trend; after several weeks of range adjustment, the BTC price broke through 12,000 US dollars and then fluctuated and pulled back. The price rebounded again this week. The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges this week was 134.177 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.974 billion yuan or 6.92% from last week. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 25.57%

The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated 275.12%, an increase of 56.03% or 25.57% compared with last week; the highest turnover rate was 50.94%, the lowest was 30.87%, and the extreme value difference was 20.07 percentage points. Weekly rose 226.77%, an increase of 52.87% ranked first.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance remains unchanged, USDT balance decreases by 0.28%

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Figure 10 Changes in total balance of USDT on exchanges

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Source: Tradingview, TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 13 Fear & Greed Index

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week’s Bitcoin Volatility Index rose by 17.8% compared with the same period last week, with an opening value of 1.01, a maximum value of 2.59, a minimum value of 0.79, and a closing value of 1.26; the Fear & Greed Index was 52 points 7 days ago, with a maximum of 55 points this week and a minimum of At 43 points, the latest panic and greed index is 52. With the price of Bitcoin consolidating at a high level, the market sentiment level has changed from greedy to neutral.

7. Futures contracts: the basis spread expands and the volume goes up, and the market remains bullish in the long run

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Figure 14 Bitcoin futures and spot price trends in the past two weeks

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 15 Bitcoin futures premium and discount rate in the past two weeks

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Figure 16 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Comparing the dynamic rate of return of various assets in the past three years, the performance of Bitcoin is thriving. In the past three years, the dynamic rate of return of Bitcoin is 1739.38%, ranking first among all types of assets, and there is a large gap with the rate of return of other assets. Except for digital currencies, other asset yields were divided. U.S. stocks performed relatively well. The S&P 500 Index rose by 36.08%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 75.36%. In addition, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by -3.43%, and gold rose by 49.45%.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

9. Summary

9. Summary

The trend of the market: This week, the market has increased in volume and hit a new high in the near future. The currencies with large, medium and small market capitalizations have all risen, and investors' greed has risen. At the beginning of the week, the market continued the previous trend and consolidated around US$340 billion. The market accelerated its rise on Friday, recovering the US$350 billion and US$360 billion mark one after another. The daily average value of the market value rose by 3.12% from last week. In the external market, the weak dollar this week boosted risk assets, and global risk assets collectively rose. Bitcoin and U.S. stocks led the gains, with U.S. stocks recording the largest weekly gain in three months. Once again broke through the $11,000 point and stood above $11,450 for a short time. After encountering resistance near $11,750, it entered a rest period, setting a new high in nearly one and a half months. The overall trading activity rose, and the support levels of various indicators moved up. Investors are bullish Gradually warming up, the short-term market maintains a bullish sentiment.

Recently, institutional funds have accelerated the deployment of digital currency. This week, Square, an investment platform under Twitter, announced that it bought $50 million in Bitcoin. During the same period, Grayscale, Coinshares, MicroStrategy, and many other NYSE-listed companies announced their holdings of Bitcoin. Holding nearly 600,000 bitcoins, bitcoin has become a financial allocation asset for more institutions; on October 12, Grayscale announced that the Ethereum Trust has been officially approved by the US SEC (previously Grayscale Bitcoin Trust became the first US securities exchange). Commission standard digital asset tool), the price of Ethereum rose rapidly in a short period of time; although the US regulators imposed penalties on Bitmex and others to suppress the market’s long sentiment, the price recovered quickly after several rounds of corrections, and overall there was a strong If the market maintains the strength of the previous rebound, the upward channel is expected to continue to extend, and it can continue to be held before it effectively falls below $11,100; considering that the resistance above $12,000 is strong, there will be a phased back step in the stage of profit taking In the short term, it may maintain a high position and change hands, and you can build a position and buy at a low price.

The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 7.71% to 40.25 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 24.65% to 10.716 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 9.35% to 1,343.50 billion bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 44129.04VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 30.44472 million yuan; A decrease of 12.90% in the previous week.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 25.57%. The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated 275.12%, an increase of 56.03% or 25.57% compared with last week; the highest turnover rate was 50.94%, the lowest was 30.87%, and the extreme value difference was 20.07 percentage points. Weekly rose 226.77%, an increase of 52.87% ranked first.

The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are EOS (655.71% this week, up 226.77% from last week, or 52.87%), ETC (505.45% this week, up 50.57% from last week, or 11.12%) , LTC (417.85% this week, up 120.22% from last week, up 40.39%); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are XLM (62.92% this week, up 3.77% from last week, up 6.38%), BTC (72.23% this week, down 3.06% from last week, down 4.07%), XRP (113.66% this week, up 32.69% from last week, up 40.37%).

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance remained unchanged, USDT balance decreased by 0.28%. This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 2.27554 million BTC, unchanged from the same period last week; the USDT balance on the exchange was 7.0179 billion USDT, a decrease of 0.28% from the same period last week; the current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC- 20) It was US$15.613 billion, an increase of 0.65% over the same period last week.

USDT premium rate: The premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading. The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range this week, maintaining a positive premium at the end of the session. The USDT/USD trading pair on the Kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.03% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.2%, a minimum premium of -0.08%, and a closing premium of 0.04%. The price fluctuated at a high level. This week, the market sentiment became greedy and neutral. The USDT premium rate remained within a narrow range. Overall, the premium level was in a relatively low range.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuated upwards, and market sentiment turned greedy to neutral. This week’s Bitcoin Volatility Index rose by 17.8% compared with the same period last week, with an opening value of 1.01, a maximum value of 2.59, a minimum value of 0.79, and a closing value of 1.26; the Fear & Greed Index was 52 points 7 days ago, with a maximum of 55 points this week and a minimum of At 43 points, the latest panic and greed index is 52. With the price of Bitcoin consolidating at a high level, the market sentiment level has changed from greedy to neutral.

Futures contracts: This week, the market volume can be enlarged, the overall basis difference amplitude is enhanced, the bulls maintain their relative advantage, and the market is bullish and expects to increase. Demand for Ethereum futures continues to grow, with Ethereum futures trading volume up nearly 320% since the start of 2020. The ratio between Bitcoin and Ethereum futures volume also fell from 9.6 in early 2020 to 2 in September, a record low. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.08%, with a premium of 0.05 percentage points; the average premium of next-week contracts is 0.01%, with a premium of 0.01 percentage points; the average premium of quarterly contracts is 1.65%, with a premium of 0.20% percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.01%. This week, OKEX's weekly contract price rose by 0.18%, and the quarterly contract price rose by 1.97%. As of the report statistics time, the 24-hour long-short ratio in the BITMEX BTC/USD margin market was 51.69%:48.31%, with long positions slightly dominant. On the whole, the current price fluctuates greatly, and it is difficult to choose a direction in the short term. However, the Bitcoin quarterly contract maintains a relatively high premium, indicating that investors continue to be bullish on the follow-up market, and the market is still bullish in the long run.

The copyright of this report is only owned by TAMC Research Institute. If you want to quote the content of this report, please indicate the source. Please let me know in advance if you need to quote a lot, and use it within the scope of permission. Under no circumstances shall any quotation, abridgement and modification contrary to the original intention be made to this report.

risk warning

Price correction risk

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

The risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

disclaimer

TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.

The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.

The content of the report is for reference only, and the facts and opinions in the report do not constitute any investment advice on relevant digital assets. TAMC Research Institute shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of the contents of this report, unless expressly stipulated by laws and regulations. Readers should not make investment decisions solely based on this report, nor should they lose the ability to make independent judgments based on this report.

The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.

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