Editor's Note: This article comes fromOrange Book (ID: chengpishu), Author: orangefans, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.

Editor's Note: This article comes from

Orange Book (ID: chengpishu)

, Author: orangefans, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.

At the end of each year, Token Daily will invite foreign KOLs in the crypto circle to make a prediction for the new year. Basically, the people invited are good, and the quality of the answers is also high. The Orange Book has translated this forecast, which can be regarded as a forecast reference for foreign communities.

A selection of some of the brighter forecasts:

1. In 2018, it was stable currency, in 2019 it was DeFi, and in 2020 it was "encrypted bank" to combine the two into products.

2. At least one DAO will be taken over by maliciously colluded voters with a profit of more than $1 million.

3. The platform currency of the exchange will continue to be the most eye-catching investment target.

4. NFT (Non-Fungible Tokens) ushered in a big explosion.

5. Ray Dalio announces he holds BTC due to rising political tensions.

6. USDT will become the third place in the total market capitalization.

Tyler & Cameron Winklevoss, Winklevoss Capital

7. The trading volume of options has increased by 10 times to 100 times

Sunayna Tuteja, TD Ameritrade

By the way, this year Orange Book also invited friends in the circle to make a forecast for the Chinese community version. This fresh article will be released next Tuesday, remember to pay attention~

The following is the text:

The Bitcoin halving is supposed to be reflected in the price, but it hasn't happened yet (in fact, it never happened earlier), so it will lead to a massive bull market (always has). NFT non-fungible tokens will be one of the most exciting areas in the crypto space, driving mainstream users to embrace cryptocurrencies. For unlicensed exchanges, development opportunities will gradually shrink globally, while for licensed operators, opportunities will become more. China will launch its own stablecoin, which will be of great benefit to the entire crypto industry and to Bitcoin.

Linda Xie, Scalar Capital

There will be a new change in startups and developers, from the development of "technology-based products" to "user experience-based products". Because more attention is paid to the needs of users, simple and smooth user experience and solutions will make great progress.

Mohamed Fouda, Token Daily Capital

Balaji Srinivasan, Investor

Yele Bademosi, Binance Labs

As the dust settles over the decade, it's clear that Bitcoin is the best investment since 2010. Not tech companies like Uber, Airbnb or Snapchat. In retrospect, the theme of the past decade has been infrastructure. Mining, exchanges, digital currencies, and communities—it’s all there. Not just from 0 to 1, but from $0 to $100B. The next decade will be about decentralization. All the technologies being built in the industry—from zero-knowledge proofs and DeFi to new consensus algorithms and scaling schemes—will be used to decentralize large existing services. Finance, IM tools and social media are some of the earliest representatives. Due to their relatively low bandwidth, Twitter and Craigslist may be the first targets of this decentralization movement.

Meltem Demirors，CoinShares

I think we will continue to see the expansion of decentralized finance (DeFi), primarily stablecoins and lending. Other financial products such as insurance, swaps, options and bonds will have more construction and use. It essentially recreates the fundamental components of the traditional financial system in a more open and composable way.

Bitcoin’s third halving dynamic will be significantly different than the previous two halvings, the Lightning Network will continue to grow, and we will see many UX improvements/abstractions. Phase 0 of Ethereum 2.0 will be completed in Q1 and Q2, but Phase 2 will not happen in 2020. Many newly launched smart contract platforms (public chains) will have difficulty capturing any potential energy, and will either shrink or transform.

2020 promises a very powerful new narrative around cryptocurrency use cases in Africa. Many projects will focus on the African region, and a batch of products will complete PMF (product market fit). Price predictions are hard, but I can expect the lowest price of BTC in 2020 to be above the yearly low of 2019 (~$3,300).

1. Bitcoin continues to dominate.

2. Bitcoin halving looks different from the previous two. It's going to get weird. In the last halving, we actually had no direction (this means that it is not easy to be short, most people are basically long).

3. Bitcoin is more and more like banks and traditional finance. Expect more cash-settled derivatives. Expect more middlemen to emerge. For example, deposit bitcoin with a custodian, and then they will give you a depositary receipt, which you can use to conduct all transactions on the platform. The custodian will take the coins to make loans.

Alexander Leishman, River Financial

4. The theme of 2020 is transaction fees. If the internet just “monetizes” eyeballs and traffic, crypto networks monetize blockchain activity by charging transaction fees. In 2020, this situation will become more obvious. We will see exchanges and companies with liquidity continue to earn 90% of the industry's revenue. More companies will switch to this business model. As spreads get tighter, it becomes harder and harder for traders and investors to make money.

Colleen Sullivan, CMT Digital

5. Businesses that cater to "institutional investors" will need to find new buyers. Many companies will transform into "digital asset" services. However, "digital assets" are still largely limited to "liquidity", which is not as simple as listing assets, but about price discovery, tradability, exchangeability, and other more related to driving desire. Esoteric factors (prestige, exclusivity, etc.).

6. Governments will continue to strengthen the concept propaganda of "CBDC" (digital currency issued by the central bank), but apart from a large number of press releases, a large number of summits, round table discussions and private meetings, we will not see any real deploy. Now can someone please figure out if the Petro actually exists?

I think 2020 will be the year that most Silicon Valley VCs realize their understanding of "Web 3.0" is incorrect. Some of these much-hyped blockchain projects will launch, but they are far from their original promises. Popular narrative themes will continue to converge around Bitcoin, and people will realize that decentralized protocols like Lightning Network, Discreet Log Contracts are more promising, but also more difficult to invest in directly.

The Silvergate Exchange Network (SEN) launched by Silvergate bank allows customers to send US dollars 24/7/365, which effectively provides instant settlement for US dollars. Before the launch of SEN, trading companies could only complete USD transfers every 5 days during banking days, which is obviously problematic in the cryptocurrency market where transactions are carried out 24/7/365. Of course, the irony is that we still don't have the instant settlement function of Bitcoin.

Hasu，Deribit

Whether it is on-chain activities, exchanges or OTC platforms, there is a need to confirm the settlement of Bitcoin transactions, but Bitcoin settlement still takes an hour to complete. From a transaction perspective, this efficiency is very low. I believe that in 2020, we will see the use of the Lightning Network for transactional purposes, especially exchanges and OTC platforms, where they can establish private channels with each other to conduct transactions to settle Bitcoin transactions instantly.

Nic Carter，Castle Island Ventures

Although the primary use cases for the Lightning Network will eventually be microtransactions, business transactions, and machine-to-machine payments, I think it will take some time for that to materialize. In the United States, we have a certain amount of friction in our tax system. Treating Bitcoin as a kind of "property" for tax purposes. When a consumer buys a cup of coffee with Satoshi and expects a cash-like transaction to generate sales tax, this approach is not Best option, transaction friction doesn't really exist. And, because self-trading firms do not have third-party capital to manage, they are more receptive to the risks of using emerging technologies such as the Lightning Network, especially when there are visible gains and benefits in doing so.

Jill Carlson, Slow Ventures

I also hope to see more derivatives for cryptocurrencies, such as mining difficulty derivatives, transaction fee derivatives and staking derivatives.

Charlie Noyes, Paradigm

We will learn more about the security model of Bitcoin and other permissionless blockchains. There is a growing realization that these systems need sufficient block rewards to survive. As a result, high transaction fees are increasingly seen as an important indicator of network security, somewhat akin to a "heartbeat".

Steve McKeon, Collaborative Fund

Fiat-backed stablecoins face intense regulatory scrutiny as regulators realize issuers are doing minimal monitoring of the network. Binance will be forced to leave Malta and look for a new base again. The SEC’s victory in its lawsuit against Kik set a regulatory precedent and led to the immediate dissolution of dozens of similar token projects. A major exchange in the United States will launch a user-oriented proof-of-reserve protocol.

Johnny Dilley, Mempool Partners

The theme of 2020 will continue to revolve around developers, developers, and developers. We will see more and better developer tools, protocols, and platforms being built, but one big question remains: who are we building for?

Dani Grant, USV

At least one DAO will be taken over by maliciously colluded voters with over a million dollars in profits.

Ethereum will continue to be the dominant permissionless smart contract platform, but Tezos will take some market share, especially through STOs. Increased DAO activity will drive research and development of proxy voting solutions. With more cases, we will also make regulation more clear in 2020.

Everyone forgot about the halving. When we halve, fomo will join.

James Prestwich, Summa

1. Bitcoin will continue to lead.

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2. Someone will develop and release a breakthrough encrypted consumer product. I predict the first such applications will be very fun, social and gamified, followed by DeFi and other more serious applications.

Jinglan Wang, Plasma Group

3. Many new chains will be launched at the end of 2019 and will be launched in 2020 (Polkadot, Algorand, Dfinity, Flow, etc.). These new chains will attract talents in the current Ethereum development community and stimulate development of developer tools and applications. The new ecology challenges the leading position of Ethereum as an application platform.

Joey Krug, Pantera Capital

My predictions for 2020 are pretty simple:

Avichal Garg, Electric Capital

Cryptocurrencies will continue to inject significant amounts of money and time into the Rust ecosystem.

Katherine Wu, Notation Capital

2019 is the year of research. 2020 is the year of delivery. In 2020, we will see more promising testnet launches than the past three years combined, and integrations between existing projects will increase.

By the end of 2020, we will see over $2 million in weekly bets on Augur.

Ari Nazir, Neural Capital

2020 is the first year for crypto projects to showcase PMFs — a space where entrepreneurs and VCs outside the circle are starting to take notice. But with so many short-term bears, few will notice that some applications have real product-market fit, and institutional capital is finally coming.

1. Design! It has been said for a long time, but I really feel that 2020 will be the year of better, human-centered design. Many complex and difficult-to-use product experiences will be discarded, resulting in a more intuitive product design. One way is to have more and better tools, so that designers outside the circle can easily design decentralized products.

Laolu, Lightning Labs

I Wumbo. You Wumbo. He, she, me Wumbo.

Val Wallace，Square Crypto

2. Regulatory tensions: Many predictions from SEC/IRS/CFTC are enough to dampen the enthusiasm of American entrepreneurs/investors. I think that in 2020 we will see a lot of companies/projects avoid US users/customers when they go live.

Jeremy Welch, Casa

1. The platform currency of the exchange will continue to be the most eye-catching investment target. Specifically, FTX will gain greater trading volume and market share among the current exchanges, and enter the top five in terms of total trading volume.

Matt Lucas, Collaborative Fund

2. Brokerage service companies will become the default way for traders to interact with cryptocurrencies. The remaining over-the-counter trading desks will consolidate into a few players, with smaller OTC desks transitioning into trading-enabling companies.

Su Zhu, Three Arrows Capital

More Lightning-integrated games, the rise of AMP, the consolidation of Schnorr/taproot proposals, and steps to streamline the core review process.

Matt Corallo, Square Crypto

In 2020, the best developers will ignore price fluctuations and continue to build. Like 2019 and every year before that.

Casey Caruso, Bessemer Venture Partners

The biggest cryptocurrency-related event of 2020 isn’t what happens to our small industry (existing digital assets and the mushrooming infrastructure that supports them), but the impact cryptocurrencies have on other economic systems. Expect to see big moves in open source development, open API access and “protocolization” (yes, even some blockchains) from the big tech finance companies as they try to adapt and preempt the changing landscape.

Bitcoin breaks its all-time high sometime during the year. As BTC is added to DeFi and average transaction fees increase, it will become more attractive to trade BTC on sidechains like Ethereum, Liquid, etc. Options trading volumes increased 10x to 100x as options products from CME and Bakkt brought significant institutional interest and liquidity.

Increased regulatory conflict - doesn't necessarily mean things will pass.

1. The enthusiasm for Web 3.0 will continue to wane as people realize that it will take at least years if not decades for this massive cultural shift to occur.

2. The community will realize that DeFi is a misnomer, as most "decentralized finance" projects are actually centralized.

Jacob Horne, Coinbase

3. Consolidation of financial products (derivatives, loans, etc.). Many separate projects will merge into subsidiary functions of larger companies.

4. Because the value is not enough to convert the POC into an annual contract, it will be difficult for the enterprise blockchain to obtain considerable income

5. BTC will continue to maintain its position as the top cryptocurrency.

1. If 2018 is the year of stablecoins and 2019 is the year of DeFi, then 2020 will be the year when "encrypted banks" combine the two into products. Encrypted banks will serve individual consumers and Agency develops products.

2. We will see mainstream DeFi teams successfully decentralize their own protocols, allowing the team to get out of the role of managers.

Imran Khan, Token Daily Capital

3. There will be a DAO managing more than $10 million in funds. There will be more than 10,000 DAOs.

4. The total market value of individual tokens will exceed $10 million.

5. The outstanding supply of USDC will exceed $1 billion.

Anthony Lusardi, Advisor

1. Most institutions have already allocated a small amount of positions to Bitcoin. After the halving, we will see the positions of these institutions double.

Ash Egan, Accomplice

2. Facebook's Libra will receive limited approval from US regulators, but it will not have an impact on the entire encryption market in the short term.

Bram Cohen, Chia

3. Gaming will be one of the successful use cases and will spawn a new smart contract platform to compete with Ethereum.