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The market expects the U.S. economy to continue to grow strongly in the third quarter, while inflation is close to or even below the Fed's 2% target.
2024-10-30 07:52:00
Odaily News According to market forecasts, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Wednesday will show that gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a strong annualized rate of 3% in the third quarter, unchanged from the previous value, after seasonal adjustment and inflation adjustment. If this expectation comes true, it will mark the 10th consecutive quarter of expansion of the U.S. economy. At the same time, the market also expects the report to show that the core PCE price index in the third quarter will slow sharply from the previous value of 2.8% to 2.1%, close to the Fed's 2% inflation target. The Fed uses the PCE price index included in GDP estimates as its main inflation indicator. Another driver of the Fed's policy rate cuts is inflation, and the core PCE price index in the second quarter is likely to get closer and closer to the Fed's target. Citigroup expects U.S. GDP growth to be lower than expected, at only 2.6%, but expects the inflation indicator for the quarter to reach the 2% target, a figure that may help to consolidate Fed officials' decision to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. (Jinshi)