连续三季下跌后，加密市场第三季度能否迎来企稳窗口？
- 핵심 의견: 2025년 2분기 암호화폐 시장은 2022년 이후 최악의 분기 실적을 기록하며 총 시가총액이 12.6% 급락한 2.1조 달러를 기록했습니다. 이는 내부 순환보다는 대규모 자금 이탈이 주요 원인이었으며, 핵심 요인으로는 연준의 매파적 정책, ETF 순유출 지속, 규제 입법 정체 등이 꼽힙니다.
- 핵심 요소:
- 시장 총 시가총액은 3048억 달러 감소한 2.1조 달러를 기록하며, 사상 최고치 대비 52% 이상 급락했고, 일평균 거래량은 20.9% 감소한 931억 달러를 기록했습니다.
- 스테이블코인 시가총액은 3년여 만에 처음으로 감소해 1.6% 줄어든 3051억 달러를 기록, 자금이 암호화폐 시장을 떠나고 있음을 시사합니다.
- 비트코인은 분기 기준 14.2% 하락한 약 58,500달러, 이더리움은 25.4% 급락한 약 1,625달러를 기록했습니다. 비트코인과 미국 증시 간의 연동 논리는 붕괴되어 위험 자산과의 디커플링 현상을 보였습니다.
- 미국 비트코인 현물 ETF는 2분기에 약 46.7억 달러의 순유출을 기록했으며, 6월 한 달에만 약 45억 달러가 순유출되어 사상 최악을 기록했고, 이는 비트코인 현물이 지속적으로 거래소로 유입되는 현상과 맞물렸습니다.
- 연준은 금리를 3.5%-3.75%로 유지했으며, 다수의 위원들이 연내 추가 인상 가능성을 시사했습니다. 7월 28-29일 FOMC 회의는 3분기 최대 이벤트로 간주됩니다.
- 《CLARITY Act》 입법이 정체되면서 시장의 2026년 통과 확률 전망은 82%에서 40%-45%로 하락했으며, 규제 불확실성은 모든 암호화폐 상품의 위험 프리미엄을 높였습니다.
- 예측 시장(거래량 전년 동기 대비 48.7% 증가한 1,138억 달러)과 토큰화된 수집품(거래량 전 분기 대비 143% 증가한 14억 달러)만이 역성장 속에서 성장을 기록했으며, 자본은 소수의 안정적인 수익성을 가진 기업으로 집중되었습니다.
Original Author: Ashrith Rao
Original Translation: Saoirse, Foresight News
The crypto market has just experienced its worst quarter since 2022. Combining the price trends from July to date, let's sort out the various difficulties that urgently need to be reversed in the third quarter.
If the market continues to decline for three consecutive quarters, it cannot simply be defined as a correction.
The total market capitalization of the overall cryptocurrency market shrank by $304.8 billion, a drop of 12.6%, falling to $2.1 trillion. Compared to the all-time high of $4.27 trillion set in October 2025, the current market cap has plummeted over 52%, hitting its lowest point since September 2024.
The average daily trading volume was $93.1 billion, a year-over-year decline of 20.9%. Data from leading compliant exchanges shows: perpetual contract trading volume fell by 10% to $12.7 trillion; spot trading volume dropped by 27.9% to only $1.95 trillion.
Stablecoins, once the most stable growth sector in the industry since 2023, have experienced their first contraction in over three years, with market cap declining 1.6% to $305.1 billion.
All core indicators point to the same conclusion: capital is fleeing the crypto market, not being reallocated within the industry.
Compared to the scale of total losses, the structural impact suffered within the market is more noteworthy.
At the end of June, the price of Bitcoin fell to around $58,500, hitting a low for 2024, with a quarterly decline of 14.2%. Ethereum's performance was even more severe, plummeting 25.4% in the quarter, with prices bottoming out around $1,625.
Many experts have formed a consensus view: In the second quarter, Bitcoin and US stocks weakened simultaneously. It wasn't a passive following of the stock market; in terms of price action, it even replaced risk stocks. During the rebound phase of the S&P 500, Bitcoin and related risk assets continued to underperform the broader market.
The correlation trading logic prevalent in 2024 and 2025 has collapsed. At that time, Bitcoin was regarded as a risk-on asset, highly correlated with the Nasdaq index.
The current situation is completely different: affected by sustained redemptions from spot ETFs, the Fed's tightening policies, and massive Bitcoin sell-offs by corporate treasury institution Strategy, the entire crypto industry is undergoing a proactive deleveraging process. Strategy's previous strategy of continuously accumulating coins was once a significant force supporting the market's upward expectations in 2024.
ETF Fund Flows Completely Reverse
US Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted $2.02 billion in April, but faced massive redemptions in the following months, ultimately recording a net outflow of approximately $4.67 billion in the second quarter.
Capital flight in June was close to $4.5 billion, marking the worst monthly performance in the category's history.
This is by no means a minor signal that can be ignored. ETF subscriptions and redemptions directly correspond to real market buying and selling actions, not merely influenced by market sentiment. Continuous capital redemptions mean that spot Bitcoin is continuously flowing to exchanges for sale.
The market experienced a significant pessimistic expectation adjustment: Citigroup, one of the most bullish institutions on crypto assets on Wall Street in 2025, announced on July 1st that it had lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000.
However, some early signals suggest that this round of capital outflow may be nearing its end.
Data from Santiment shows that since May 6th, the cumulative ETF outflow has exceeded $8.5 billion. Historical patterns suggest that capital flight of this magnitude often corresponds to a phase of selling at lower levels, rather than the beginning of a new sharp decline.
Glassnode data indicates: Despite the continuous exodus of institutional capital, Bitcoin long-term holders began accumulating coins again in early July.
When the market approaches a cyclical bottom, the divergence in operations between retail investors and institutions often becomes more apparent than in the middle of a crash.
In early July, ETF fund flows briefly reversed, recording a net inflow of $46.6 million, signaling a positive turning point. Subsequently, driven by BlackRock's IBIT fund, $510 million flowed in over three days. However, this recovery was difficult to sustain, and funds turned to outflows again, with a net single-day outflow of approximately $85 million on July 8th.
During the first three weeks of July, Bitcoin prices oscillated in the $56,000–$64,000 range, repeatedly testing the resistance level of $63,700–$64,000 but failing to break through and retreating under pressure.
Now, the entire market's attention is solely focused on the Federal Reserve; the market's focus has become highly singular. The June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting kept interest rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range, which was also the first rate-setting meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh.
The benchmark rate has remained unchanged since December 2025. Despite this, several Fed officials have signaled the possibility of a rate hike within the year, while Warsh himself has not provided a clear policy forecast. This stance is far more hawkish than the market anticipated and explains why non-yielding assets like Bitcoin have struggled to sustain an upward trend.
Currently, almost all trading desks view the July 28–29 FOMC meeting as the most important event of the third quarter. Two scenario analyses: If the Fed signals a more dovish stance, Bitcoin could stabilize in the $68,000–$84,000 range, providing a foundation for ETF fund inflows; if the policy stance is hawkish, then $50,000–$56,000 will become Bitcoin's new oscillation center.
Beyond this, corporate Bitcoin holdings constitute a unique tail risk for this cycle.
The asset sell-off in June was initially marketed as a proprietary operation aimed at generating dividends.
Over the past two years, the crypto industry has accumulated stable institutional capital support. However, if other corporate treasury entities, pressured by balance sheet concerns, follow suit in selling Bitcoin, the entire industry could lose its institutional capital backing.
Regulatory Progress: Where It's Stalled and Where Progress Has Been Made
From 2025 to early 2026, the industry vigorously pushed for the legislation of the
The House of Representatives passed the bill back in July 2025 with a vote of 294 in favor and 134 against; in May 2026, the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee by a vote of 15:9. However, since then, the legislative process has stalled.
The bill originally had an informal review deadline of July 4th. After failing to advance as scheduled, market expectations deteriorated sharply: in February, the market estimated the probability of the bill passing in 2026 at about 82%; by mid-July, this probability had fallen to the 40%–45% range. The Senate was originally scheduled to discuss the bill on June 1st, but ultimately did not do so.
Several unresolved points of contention remain: President Trump's crypto asset holdings and disclosure obligations, Section 604 of the bill regarding developer protection clauses, and rules related to stablecoin yields.
To reach the 60-vote threshold needed to overcome a filibuster in the Senate vote, support from 7 Democratic senators is required, but currently, only two Democratic senators have publicly expressed support for the bill.
Analysts from Stifel and Beacon Policy Advisors warn: If there is no progress in July, substantive advancement of the bill could be delayed until 2027. By then, the Senate will be in recess, and the US midterm elections will be approaching.
The current ambiguity of regulatory rules is continuously impacting the price trends of crypto assets.
When allocating capital, investors are increasingly valuing the risks associated with long-term unclear regulatory jurisdiction. This has pushed up the risk premium for all crypto products, even the most conservatively designed projects cannot escape it.
This uncertainty continuously affects core areas such as token issuance, asset custody, and exchange registration.
As a result, capital in the industry is no longer widely distributed across sectors this quarter. Instead, it is concentrated in a few companies capable of generating stable profits.
Few Bright Spots, But with Substantive Growth
While most sectors of the market are shrinking, only two segments are bucking the trend and expanding. This phenomenon reflects a shift in real market demand.
The prediction market has exploded, with nominal trading volume up 48.7% year-over-year, reaching $113.8 billion. June was a watershed month for the industry, with monthly trading volume approaching $50 billion to $53 billion, setting a new monthly high.
Kalshi holds a 58.9% market share in the industry; over the past year, approximately 80%–87% of Kalshi's trading volume came from sports derivative contracts.
The sector is growing rapidly with clear target customers but is highly constrained by laws and policies.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a new draft rule on June 10th, opening a 45-day public comment period. The regulatory idea is to allow the vast majority of sports trading markets to operate normally while prohibiting derivative contracts related to player injuries, referee decisions, and some real-time in-game events.
Meanwhile, several state governments are embroiled in complex legal disputes with prediction markets; Arizona has already filed a formal lawsuit. These judicial disagreements may ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court.
Relying on a mature ecosystem of institutional partnerships, the sector continues to expand: Polymarket partnered with Dow Jones, and Kalshi teamed up with Nasdaq. However, related lawsuits at the state level are ongoing, and a complete legal framework has not yet been established.
Tokenized collectibles performed strongly in the second quarter, with trading volume surging approximately 143% quarter-over-quarter, totaling $1.4 billion. Collector Crypt saw particularly astonishing growth, with June trading volume jumping 317% to $406 million, over 12 times the trading volume of OpenSea NFTs during the same period.
Even during a downturn, Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) continues to develop steadily. The total on-chain value of tokenized assets issued by 177 entities is approximately $28.1 billion.
The growth driver for this sector stems from the fundamentals of yield-generating real collateral assets, independent of the fluctuations in the crypto market risk cycle. This developmental characteristic is very similar to the trend of institutional ecosystem building in the prediction market.
Key Factors Determining the Direction of the Third Quarter
Despite Warsh's reluctance to provide policy guidance and the dot plot signaling a tightening bias, the market still views the July 28–29 FOMC decision as the most important event of the quarter.
It is currently unclear whether the Senate can consider the
Looking at various indicators, the market temporarily lacks the basis for an extreme crash.
Although the market's profit-making effect has significantly weakened, with on-chain fees across major sectors averaging a 44.6% decline in June, the Bitcoin price remains close to the 200-week moving average, and the long-term support structure has not been broken.
The market's trading logic has changed: participants no longer rely solely on various narrative hype. Trading decisions are more centered around price movements, policy choices, and interest rate expectations. A broad-based rally fueled purely by optimistic sentiment is unlikely to occur.
