BitMart Research Weekly Highlights: RWA Sector Bucks Trend Amid Rising Fed Hawkish Expectations and Continued Crypto Market Pressure

1. Macro Economy & Traditional Financial Markets

1. U.S. Stock Market Highly Divergent: Slowdown Signals & Middle East Uncertainty Intertwine

The U.S. stock market showed high divergence last week. The S&P 500 edged down 0.22%, the Nasdaq rose 0.27%, and the Dow Jones increased 0.39%. Macro data continued to weaken: the Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged from 19.6 to 5.7, housing starts plummeted to 1.177 million units, and May retail sales grew by 0.4% month-over-month. Overall, the data indicates that the high-interest-rate environment is gradually dampening aggregate demand.

The labor market remained resilient, with initial jobless claims at 226,000 and the four-week moving average slightly increasing to 223,250, providing some support for overall consumption. The structural divergence between resilient consumption and weakening real estate/manufacturing sectors complicates the Fed's policy path, as the pace of economic cooling is insufficient to quickly drive inflation down.

2. Fed Holds Rates Steady, Half of Officials Expect Hikes This Year; Warsh’s Communication Style Shifts

The Federal Reserve voted 12-0 to maintain the policy rate at 3.75%. Among 18 officials, 9 expect at least one rate hike this year, with 6 expecting more than one hike. Only 1 official expects a rate cut this year, and 1 official did not submit a Summary of Economic Projections. The Philadelphia Fed's "Prices Paid" index rose from 47.9 to 53.2, further reinforcing the hawkish stance.

Chairman Warsh adopted a communication style differing from his predecessor, frequently referencing "first principles," "alternative frameworks," and "terms of reference." He was the sole official in this dot plot who refused to submit future rate forecasts, emphasizing that the Fed's core mission is achieving price stability. This FOMC statement was almost entirely rewritten and significantly shortened, increasing market uncertainty regarding the Fed's future communication and policy path.

2. Crypto Market

1. Market Overview: BTC Underperforms ETH, Sentiment Remains in Extreme Fear

BTC fell 3.7% last week, oscillating within the $62,000-$65,000 range. ETH dropped 1.2%, holding near the $1,700 level. Due to BTC’s notable underperformance relative to ETH, the BTC/ETH ratio declined by 1.6%. Total crypto market cap fell 3.1%. Excluding BTC and ETH, the market cap decreased by 2.3%. The altcoin market (excluding the top 10 tokens) fell 3.0%, presenting a clear picture of widespread decline.

The average decline among the top 30 crypto assets was 2.5%. XLM was a notable exception, surging 12.2%, driven by Stellar’s roadmap focusing on RWA tokenization, payments, and corporate settlement. Market sentiment remained in the "Extreme Fear" zone, with the Fear & Greed Index holding at 20. Additionally, jaredfromsubway.eth, one of the largest MEV sandwich bots on Ethereum, suffered a reverse attack, losing approximately $7.5 million, rekindling market focus on on-chain security risks.

2. ETF Flows: BTC Net Outflows of $226.8 Million; Institutional Buying Yet to Resume

U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $226.8 million last week, while Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net outflows of about $10 million. On a trading day basis, BTC ETFs saw net outflows of ~$64.09 million on June 15th, minor net inflows of ~$10.06 million on June 16th, and net outflows of ~$82.16 million and ~$90.66 million on June 17th and 18th respectively. U.S. markets were closed on June 19th for the Juneteenth holiday.

For ETH ETFs, there were still minor net inflows on June 15th and 16th, but flows turned negative again from June 17th to 18th, resulting in a slight weekly net outflow. Overall, while the outflow pressure eased compared to the significant outflows of the previous week, institutional funds have not yet resumed consistent buying.

3. On-Chain Data: Stablecoin Supply Stabilizes, Showing Structural Divergence

According to DeFiLlama data, as of June 22nd, the total stablecoin market cap stood at approximately $315.3 billion, with a 7-day increase of ~$287 million (up ~0.09%). USDT's market share was ~59.05%. USDT decreased slightly by ~0.12% over 7 days, while USDC grew marginally by ~0.06%, indicating overall stability in mainstream settlement funds. USDS fell by ~3.47% over 7 days, continuing the trend of ecosystem-native stablecoins contracting more readily in volatile market conditions.

USD1 and USDG grew by ~9.27% and ~6.74% respectively, reflecting the ongoing expansion of compliance-oriented stablecoins and distribution channel networks. USDe was roughly flat over 7 days, as the growth pace of yield-bearing stablecoins slowed without significant redemptions. BUIDL and USYC maintained modest growth, indicating persistent demand for institutional on-chain cash management. Overall, the stablecoin market transitioned from a total supply contraction in the previous week to a stabilization with structural divergence, though capital still favors high-certainty dollar instruments.

4. Industry Narrative: STRC Trades Below Par for Fifth Consecutive Week; Strategy’s Funding Flywheel Under Pressure

STRC has traded below par for its fifth consecutive week, with prices briefly dropping to around $82 before recovering to ~$88, though weekly trading volume still reached $1.6 billion. The nominal dividend yield has risen to 11.5%, with market discussions on whether it will be further increased to 11.75% or 12%. Notably, Strategy, which previously declared it would "never sell Bitcoin," sold 32 BTC for the first time in late May, raising approximately $2.5 million to pay preferred share distributions.

Strategy currently faces three potential paths: raising the STRC dividend yield (each 0.5% increase would add ~$52.45 million in annual extra dividend costs); selling Bitcoin holdings to pay dividends, which would weaken the core narrative; or issuing new STRC shares below par value, which would structurally raise the dividend burden over the long term. Last week, STRC accounted for 76.2% of the total trading volume in Bitcoin Treasury preferred securities, down from 80% the previous week, while the second-largest traded instrument was Strive’s SATA, representing 15.8%.

This article is solely market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing involves high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly manage risk before trading.