比特币 반등 저항에 부딪혀 하락: 78,200달러가 저항선으로, 71,400달러가 핵심 지지선으로 전환

Original Author: Glassnode

Original Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Bitcoin remains structurally resilient, but weakening spot demand, slowing ETF inflows, and increasingly crowded long positions indicate that upward momentum is gradually cooling beneath the surface.

Summary

• Bitcoin has reclaimed the True Market Mean of $78,300 but failed to hold it. Based on historical cycles, weeks to months of consolidation near this level are typically required to confirm a credible bullish transition.
• The 30-day SMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio surged from 0.4 in February to 1.8 during the rebound, indicating that demand is insufficient to absorb the wave of profit-taking. A sustained hold above 2 is needed to signal a genuine recovery in buying pressure.
• The 30-day cost basis of $78,200 has shifted from support to overhead resistance, while the cost basis of the accumulation cohort from February to April, at $71,400, is currently the most immediate support level for this correction.
• On-chain spot market indicators have weakened in recent weeks, with the aggregate spot CVD remaining predominantly negative and Coinbase activity persistently lagging. This suggests that despite occasional bursts of speculative demand from overseas, institutional spot participation in the US remains weak.
• CME futures open interest has continued to recover alongside the price, indicating improving institutional participation in the derivatives market, although spot demand remains indecisive near the upper end of the current range.
• Momentum in US spot ETF accumulation has recently begun to slow. The 30-day change in ETF holdings has notably flattened after strong buying in April and early May, suggesting that US institutional spot demand has become less aggressive near the upper end of the current price range.
• Implied volatility is rebuilding from low levels, concentrated in the front end, while longer-dated expectations remain stable. Realized volatility continues to decline, widening the volatility risk premium and making protection relatively cheap.
• Options positioning remains defensive. Skew shows renewed demand for downside protection, while a short gamma zone near $75,000 leaves spot vulnerable to amplified hedging flows and sharper price movements.

Macro Insights

The macro backdrop has tightened significantly, with markets facing a stronger US dollar, higher yields, and renewed inflationary pressures from energy markets. The DXY has risen to six-week highs, the US 10-year yield has climbed above 4.6%, and the 30-year yield is trending towards multi-year highs, reflecting a sharp repricing of interest rate expectations. Markets are now assigning a higher probability to Fed rate hikes before year-end, reversing earlier expectations for looser policy.

Commodities are reinforcing the tighter macro shock. Oil remains elevated due to Middle Eastern supply risks, keeping inflation expectations active and limiting room for rate cuts. Gold is struggling to advance further due to rising real yields and a stronger dollar, indicating that safe-haven flows are being challenged by tighter financial conditions.

For digital assets, the landscape remains constructive but more fragile. Bitcoin's resilience in the face of higher yields and a stronger dollar suggests underlying demand persists, but the macro shock is no longer unequivocally positive. Sustained upside may require oil to stabilize, yields to retreat, and the DXY to lose momentum, allowing liquidity conditions to ease and risk appetite to expand once more.

On-Chain Insights

Testing the Bull-Bear Divide

The recent rally to $82,000 marked a significant reclaim of the True Market Mean at $78,300. This price model tracks the average cost basis of actively traded Bitcoin supply and historically serves as the dividing line between bear and bull markets. Reclaiming this level is necessary but not sufficient for a structural shift. Conventionally, the pre-bull phase requires weeks to months of sustained consolidation near this model to confirm a credible trend change. A single decisive break above the True Market Mean, while constructive, does not yet meet this requirement.

Therefore, any deeper pullback from current levels would redefine the recent rally as a local high within a continuing bear market. This structure has appeared multiple times in previous cycles and remains a higher probability outcome until the price demonstrates sustained follow-through.

Profit-Taking Outpacing Demand

Examining the internal mechanics of the recent rally, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio provides a precise measure of market health. This metric tracks the ratio of realized profit USD value to realized loss on-chain. A value above 1 indicates profit-taking dominance, while below 1 reflects loss realization dominance.

The 30-day SMA of this metric surged from a February low of 0.4 to 1.8, reflecting a logical shift in spending behavior after the price recovery. However, the market's inability to sustain momentum amidst this rising wave of profit-taking suggests demand has not yet recovered sufficiently to absorb sellers capitalizing on the bounce.

A decisive and sustained stabilization of the 30-day (or 90-day) SMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio above 2 for multiple weeks would constitute a more meaningful signal of genuine buyer conviction recovery and the market's ability to absorb distribution pressure without rolling over.

Cost Basis Levels Define New Range

With the price retreating below the True Market Mean, realized price metrics segmented by holding period offer a granular framework for mapping the most immediate support and resistance levels. This model tracks the average purchase price of coins by holding period, directly plotting behavioral anchors of different investor cohorts onto the price chart. The cost basis for the recent 30-day accumulation wave (which drove the rally momentum) is approximately $78,200. With the price now below this level, this cohort has shifted into unrealized loss, transforming the former support floor into an overhead supply zone, adding selling pressure during any rally attempts.

Below the spot price, the cost basis of investors who accumulated during the February-to-April consolidation (now classified as 1-3 month holders) is near $71,400. As this cohort's profit margins shrink and they face increasing incentives to protect gains should conditions deteriorate further, this represents the most probable near-term support level.

Off-Chain Insights

Spot Selling Pressure Returns

The latest spot flow data continues to show weak aggregate demand beneath the surface. The aggregate exchange spot CVD remains biased negative during the recent pullback towards the $77,000 highs. This indicates that selling pressure continues to outpace aggressive spot buying across major trading venues.

Recently, Binance spot flow has shown a modest recovery from deeply negative levels, while Coinbase activity remains relatively subdued. This divergence suggests stronger speculative participation from overseas, while US institutional spot demand lacks conviction near current price levels.

Despite Bitcoin's relative structural resilience, the latest spot positioning data indicates that broad-based spot accumulation has not fully re-emerged.

CME Recovers While ETF Demand Slows

CME futures open interest has continued to rise steadily alongside Bitcoin's recovery to the low $80,000s, indicating that institutional traders are rebuilding exposure after the February sell-off. The revival in CME activity suggests growing institutional participation in the derivatives market, even as macro conditions remain restrictive.

Concurrently, the momentum of US spot ETF accumulation has started to decelerate. The 30-day change in ETF holdings has notably flattened after strong buying in April and early May, suggesting that the US institutional cohort's spot demand has become less aggressive near current price levels.

The result is a market increasingly driven by futures positioning rather than robust spot accumulation. The recent upside continues to attract leveraged participation, but the pace of fresh spot buying has slowed as Bitcoin approaches the upper end of the current range.

Weak Spot, Crowded Longs

The latest order flow data reveals a correction primarily driven by spot flows beneath the surface. Futures open interest has only moderately declined and remains elevated relative to the last time Bitcoin traded in this range, while spot CVD is significantly weaker than futures CVD. This suggests the recent downside is driven more by persistent spot selling than aggressive short positioning.

Funding rates reinforce this picture. They did not reset alongside the price decline but instead remained positive and recently started firming again, indicating that leveraged longs continue to pay fees to maintain exposure during the weakness.

Taken together, the market maintains elevated long positioning even as spot demand softens—a setup typically resolved either through spot buying or a broader derivatives reset.

Implied Volatility Rebuilding from Lows

Starting with implied volatility, the market is beginning to price volatility again, but from a low base.

Bitcoin's implied volatility across tenors has risen from last week, with the front end moving from 32% to 36%. The 6-month tenor remains relatively stable near 42%, suggesting little change in longer-term expectations despite recent spot movements.

The chart shows the front end reacting more clearly as spot moves within the range, while the back end remains anchored. This indicates traders are paying slightly higher premiums for short-dated options but have not yet priced in a broader shift in volatility.

With implied volatility still near recent lows, the cost of hedging remains relatively cheap, especially for short-term event risk.

The current structure reflects a mild rebuilding of short-term volatility demand, while longer-dated expectations remain stable and largely unchanged.

Realized Volatility Declines, Volatility Risk Premium Widens

As implied volatility rebuilds modestly, realized volatility continues its downward trend.

Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility is currently at 27%, continuing the overall decline of recent weeks. Meanwhile, 1-month implied volatility remains near 37%, meaning implied volatility trades significantly above realized volatility.

This pushes the 1-month volatility risk premium back towards 10 vol points, the highest level in recent weeks. The right side of the chart shows a steady widening, driven more by the continued compression of realized volatility as spot action stabilizes, rather than aggressive implied buying.

For hedgers, the key takeaway is that despite the recent rebuilding of implied volatility, the cost of protection remains relatively cheap.

The current structure reflects a market where realized volatility is declining faster than implied volatility is re-pricing lower, allowing the volatility risk premium to continue expanding.

25 Delta Skew Shows Renewed Downside Demand

While implied volatility has begun to rebuild modestly, skew indicates traders are primarily bidding for protection over upside exposure.

Bitcoin's 25 delta skew has become more bearish over the past week, with traders paying a higher premium for downside protection across tenors. This shift is most pronounced in the front end, where skew has risen from 2.7% to 6.2%, indicating a significant increase in demand for short-dated puts.

Longer tenors also show higher put premiums, though to a lesser degree, with the 6-month tenor remaining near the 10% area. This suggests the market is not only hedging short-term risks but maintaining a broader preference for downside protection.

The current skew structure reflects a clear defensive tilt, with short-dated hedging demand rebuilding even as implied volatility remains relatively low.

Gamma Exposure Reveals Vulnerable Price Zone

The largest cluster of short gamma is near the $75,000 strike price, with approximately $2.5 billion in negative exposure below the current spot price of $77,500. Another significant short gamma cluster remains near $82,000, with exposure close to $2 billion. However, nearly $2 billion in positive gamma is dispersed across three strikes above the spot price, creating resistance before reaching the higher short gamma acceleration zone at $82,000.

This structure makes spot more sensitive to sharp downward moves near the major negative gamma strike of $75,000, where dealer hedging flows could amplify weakness. This accumulation aligns with recent flow activity. Put buying has accounted for 55.5% of taker premium flow over the past 7 days and over 90% in the past 24 hours, indicating a clear rotation towards downside hedging.

The current Gamma distribution reflects a more fragile structure, with concentrated put option demand creating a critical zone that could amplify volatility if spot re-enters it.

Conclusion

Bitcoin remains in a constructive structural position, but the latest positioning and flow data suggest momentum is becoming increasingly selective beneath the surface. Institutional futures participation continues to recover, and the price holds resilience above key support levels. However, broad spot demand has not yet fully re-accelerated, particularly across US institutional venues.

Meanwhile, options positioning and the volatility market indicate a more cautious environment is forming near the upper end of the current range. The combination of weaker aggregate spot accumulation, softer ETF momentum, and resurgent downside hedging demand suggests the market is still searching for a stronger catalyst to sustain expansion above the low $80,000s.

In summary, the broader trend remains constructive, but the latest data shows the market is increasingly driven by positioning and derivative activity rather than widespread spot conviction. Until liquidity conditions improve further and stronger spot demand re-emerges, Bitcoin may continue to experience more choppy price action within its current range.