特朗普的一条推文使BTC时隔三个月重返8万美元
- 핵심 의견: 트럼프 대통령이 "자유 계획"을 발표하며 호르무즈 해협에 무력을 투입해 좌초된 선박을 구출하겠다고 밝히자, 글로벌 금융 시장이 요동쳤습니다: 비트코인은 8만 달러를 돌파했고, 아시아 증시는 상승했으며, 유가는 소폭 하락했습니다. 그러나 실제 실행 가능성은 의문이며, 시장은 이것이 또 한 번의 "허세"에 불과할 수 있다고 보는 분위기입니다.
- 핵심 요소:
- 비트코인이 3개월 만에 다시 8만 달러 선을 돌파했습니다. 지난 12시간 동안 전체 시장에서 2억 8600만 달러 규모의 청산이 발생했으며, 이 중 공매도 청산 규모는 2억 5100만 달러에 달합니다.
- 아시아 증시도 동반 상승했습니다. MSCI 아시아 태평양 지수는 1.9% 상승했고, 기술주가 반등하며 SK하이닉스, TSMC 등이 큰 폭으로 올랐습니다.
- 트럼프 대통령은 중동 시간 기준 월요일에 "자유 계획"을 개시한다고 발표하며, 호르무즈 해협에 좌초된 선박들의 항로를 안내하겠다고 약속했으며, 미군의 군사적 지원을 받을 것이라고 밝혔습니다.
- 이란은 이 조치를 주권 침해라고 강력히 반발하며, 동시에 "호르무즈 해협 관리법"을 통해 선박 통행을 제한하겠다는 입장을 재확인했습니다.
- 트럼프 대통령의 지지율은 62%로 임기 중 최고치를 기록했으며, 그는 해협 통행권을 회복함으로써 국정 성과를 높이고 유가를 낮추며 경제를 안정시킬 필요가 절실합니다.
Author｜Golem (@web3_golem)
Crazy Monday! After three months, Bitcoin has once again broken through the $80,000 mark.
The altcoin market is also recovering. According to Quantify Crypto data, over the past 24 hours, more than 80% of the top 200 altcoins by market cap have seen varying degrees of increase. Among them, DOGE rose over 5.43%, ZEC surged over 10.78%, and WLFI gained over 7.06%.
In terms of derivatives, Coinglass数据显示，过去 12 小时全网爆仓 2.86 亿美元，主爆空单，金额达 2.51 亿美元，并且爆仓时间集中在比特币突破 8 万美元时，此外 BTC 爆仓 1.52 亿美元，ETH 爆仓 7550 万美元。
This rally was not exclusive to the crypto market. Asian stock markets opened sharply higher on Monday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 1.9%, erasing losses since the Iran war. Tech stocks rebounded; SK Hynix shares surged nearly 10%, TSMC jumped over 6%, and Hong Kong-listed tech and internet stocks also rose collectively. Xiaomi Group climbed over 10%, and Alibaba (09988.HK) gained more than 6%.
Meanwhile, according to Gate data, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices also dipped slightly, with WTI crude oil prices hovering around $101 per barrel.
When both the crypto and stock markets rise on a Monday, accompanied by minor fluctuations in oil prices, investors familiar with this scenario can probably guess: Trump, the market manipulator, is at it again.
2. Market Expects Trump's "Operation Freedom" May Open the Strait of Hormuz
On the evening of May 3rd, Eastern Time, Trump posted that he would help ships leave the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday (Middle East time). He stated that many countries unrelated to the current Middle East dispute are appealing to the US for help in releasing vessels blocked in the Strait of Hormuz. To provide humanitarian aid, the US will safely guide their ships out of the restricted waters, naming the operation "Project Freedom."
Following Trump's post, US Central Command also stated it would provide military support for the operation to guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, including destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 military personnel. It claimed this was in response to Iranian military attacks on commercial ships transiting the strait.
Such a unilateral action by Trump was naturally bound to anger Iran. As early as May 2nd, Ali Nikzad, Vice Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly of Iran, emphasized in an interview on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz that Iran would absolutely not take a step back from the Strait of Hormuz. He stated that the parliament had approved a "Strait of Hormuz Management Law," which includes permanently banning Israeli vessels from passing through this key waterway, requiring ships from "hostile countries" to pay "war reparations" for passage permits, and necessitating Iranian authorization for other vessels.
Therefore, Iran views Trump's "Operation Freedom" as an infringement on its management rights over the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after Trump announced the operation, Ebrahim Azizi, Chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that any US intervention in the new maritime order of the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
On April 8th, the US and Iran signed a two-week temporary ceasefire agreement. Just before the agreement was set to expire on April 21st, Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire to continue negotiations with Iran. Although the ceasefire is in place, control over the Strait of Hormuz has remained in Iranian hands during this period, and it has never fully opened the strait for passage.
Looking at the consequences, if Trump forcibly enforces "Operation Freedom," the current situation between the US and Iran could escalate from negotiation back to armed conflict. Not only would the Strait of Hormuz become impassable, but in the long run, the impact of war on global financial markets would be far greater than today's market rallies.
Of course, whether the "Gunslinger" Trump will actually execute the "Operation Freedom" plan remains uncertain. It is currently Monday morning (May 4th) Middle East time, but there are no reports yet of US forces successfully escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Could this be another classic T.A.C.O. (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade? (Related reading: Did He Win or Lose the War? Trump: I'm Profiting)
The Iranian side seems accustomed to this Trump-style "cry wolf" story. Iranian scholar Seyed Mohammad Marandi, commenting on Trump's posts manipulating oil prices back in late March, said, "Every week when the market opens, Trump makes these kinds of statements to suppress oil prices." Similarly, Ebrahim Azizi dismissively remarked when Trump announced "Project Freedom," saying no one believes this kind of "buck-passing" trick.
Although whether "Operation Freedom" will actually be implemented remains unknown for now, Trump's eagerness to restore normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz is evident. This is not only related to US national interests but also crucial to whether Trump can secure his presidency.
On May 3rd, according to the latest ABC/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, Trump's disapproval rating reached 62%, the highest of his two terms. With midterm elections approaching, such approval ratings are quite unfavorable for Trump, making him desperately in need of achievements that can turn the tide. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the most ideal goal (even though the current problems are largely of his own making).
On one hand, externally, opening the Strait of Hormuz is a re-demonstration of American global deterrence. Trump can package it as a complete victory over Iran, showcasing American strength. On the other hand, domestically, restoring passage through the Strait of Hormuz can lower global crude oil prices, appeasing the discontent of the American public and related stakeholders. Simultaneously, lower price levels could increase the probability of newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh convincing other officials to agree to an interest rate cut at the June FOMC meeting, injecting vitality into the market. (Related reading: Powell Exits But Doesn't Leave Stage; Trump's Rate Cut Plans May Falter)
On the morning of May 4th, Trump also posted a photo on Truth Social. The photo shows him holding multiple cards with the caption, "I have all the cards." On the surface, this projects confidence, but often, those with the weakest hand are the ones who boast the most.
