BitMart Research Weekly Highlights: Macro Policy, AI Industry Trends, and Comprehensive Analysis of the Crypto Ecosystem

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2026-04-28 07:19

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Crypto has recently rebounded in tandem with the US stock market, with spot CVD data showing sustained active buying. While overall trading volume is relatively low, this is actually a positive signal in the early stages of a market uptrend.

AI 요약

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Key Insight: The AI bubble in US stocks is in its mid-to-late stages but far from over. The Federal Reserve's policy may pivot towards a dovish stance. The cryptocurrency market is following the US stock market's rebound. Derivatives data is bullish, but a full-scale altcoin bull market is unlikely. Structural opportunities exist in RWA and prediction markets.
Key Factors:
1. The value of the US AI industry chain is rotating from GPUs to power infrastructure. Optical communication (from 1.6T to 12.8T) represents a niche opportunity. The bubble has not reached its final stage as small and mid-cap AI companies have not experienced broad-based gains.
2. Federal Reserve candidate Kevin Warsh advocates using a "trimmed mean" to assess inflation, which could potentially underestimate actual inflation to support rate cuts. He favors reducing the balance sheet and recommends less forward guidance.
3. Iran and the US have significant differences on Middle East issues (nuclear facilities vs. security guarantees). The situation is expected to continue in a pattern of intermittent conflict.
4. Spot crypto ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $846 million last week, indicating sustained institutional buying. MicroStrategy added over 3,000 BTC. An entity suspected to be linked to BlackRock is reportedly planning to accumulate ETH to 5% of the circulating supply.
5. Derivatives data shows: Open Interest has hit a new high during the downtrend, funding rates remain negative, and put option premiums are declining, suggesting there is still upside potential for the market.
6. The DeFi ecosystem has been severely impacted by a black swan event, making a quick recovery in token prices unlikely in the short term. A comprehensive altcoin bull market is difficult, with the uptrend primarily driven by BTC.

一、宏观经济与传统金融市场（Macro）

1. 美股表现与 AI 产业链

市场整体概况：标普指数在历史高位震荡蓄势。当前美股的上涨几乎完全由 AI 产业链支撑，零售等其他板块实际上面临业绩承压和回调风险。在 VIX 波动率维持在 20 左右的低位环境下，算法交易和对冲基金更倾向于买入。

AI 产业链的发展与轮动： AI 产业的价值捕获正随着发展"瓶颈"的转移而不断轮动——从早期的 GPU，到高带宽内存（HBM）和光模块需求，再到当前市场开始定价的电力基础设施（因训练和推理需要海量电力支撑）。展望未来，光通信板块（传输速率从 800G 向 1.6T 乃至 3.2T/12.8T 演进）将孕育出细分领域的投资机会。

AI 泡沫阶段判断：美股的 AI 狂热目前处于泡沫的中后期，但远未进入末期。理由是目前仅有数据中心等少数板块真正兑现了收益，部分具备正向营收的 AI 中小公司以及传统数据中心相关股票尚未出现普涨或暴涨，市场尚未进入全面非理性的疯狂阶段。

2. 美联储政策与人事动向（Kevin Warsh 听证会）

通胀框架的潜在调整：美联储主席候选人 Kevin Warsh 提议改变通胀评估框架，认为当前的核心 PCE 指标存在不足，倾向于采用"截尾均值（Trimmed Mean）"。然而，在通胀呈现右偏态分布（通胀侧存在长尾）的环境下，这种计算方式会剔除涨幅过高的数据，从而显著低估真实通胀水平**——这可能是在为后续降息寻找数据上的依据。

政策工具与缩表立场： Kevin Warsh 认为利率是最核心的政策工具，而资产负债表的扩张只会推高资产价格。他主张未来推行更小规模的资产负债表，并隐含了"以缩表换降息"的政策思路。不过短期内能否实际落地，仍取决于通胀和油价数据的走势。

沟通机制与独立性问题： Kevin Warsh 倾向于减少前瞻性指引，降低美联储的透明度。听证会表现显示其与特朗普阵营立场高度一致。此外，他认为美联储的独立性仅限于货币政策层面，在国际金融领域（如提供美元流动性的 FX Swap Line）需要与政府协作，这意味着白宫未来可能拥有更多干预他国美元流动性的政策选项与政治筹码。

3. 地缘政治与大宗商品

中东局势：美伊关系与巴以问题已演变为一场"经济消耗战与耐力比拼"。伊朗提出"先保障自身安全、再谈霍尔木兹海峡管理、最后谈核问题"的三步走方案，但与美国"优先解决核设施问题"的诉求完全相反，双方分歧巨大。局势大概率将在打打停停中持续缓慢消耗。

二、Crypto 市场行情与生态

1. 行情数据与盘面表现

跟随美股反弹，现货端表现强势： Crypto 近期跟随美股同步反弹，现货端 CVD 数据显示持续的主动买入（买盘强于卖盘）。虽然整体成交量较为低迷，但这在行情启动初期反而是一个积极信号。

衍生品数据指向看涨：未平仓合约（Open Interest）创下本轮下跌以来的新高，同时资金费率持续为负（空头向多头支付费用），表明看空情绪仍较为浓厚；期权市场的看跌期权（Put）溢价持续回落。整体数据结构暗示行情仍有上行空间，后续等待价格突破带动成交量放大。

ETF 与机构买入：现货 ETF 上周净流入虽低于前值，但仍保持正向流入（约 8.46 亿美元）。MicroStrategy（微策略）常规增持 3000 余枚比特币；另一大机构（疑似 BlackRock 相关）上周买入 10 万枚以太坊，并已向 SEC 提交计划——目标是持续增持至占以太坊总流通量 5% 的水平，预计该购买态势将持续约半年。