The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket event "2026 World Cup Semi-Final: France vs. Spain", a smart money address (0x85f031d069de300055900c4055c1baeb6bde3f67), which has total profits exceeding $1.685 million, purchased $487,000 worth of bets on France defeating Spain. The average opening price was 41.5¢, for a total of 1,199,996.2 shares. This market only predicts the result within the first 90 minutes of regular play (including stoppage time). Additionally, this user is holding $962,000 worth of bets on France winning the World Cup, with an unrealized profit of $550,000.

The match between France and Spain is scheduled to begin on July 15 at 3:00 AM Beijing time. This marks the third time the two teams have met in a major tournament semi-final in three years. As the winner of their previous two encounters, Spain may hold the psychological advantage.

Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.

Odaily Planet Daily News: According to market sources, traders have pushed back their expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike to October.

According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 83.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 16.6%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 40.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 8.6%.

Odaily Planet Daily News: Affected by consumer price data coming in lower than expected, traders have withdrawn their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike, driving a significant surge in U.S. Treasury prices. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is highly sensitive to the short-term monetary policy outlook of the Fed, once fell by 14 basis points to 4.14%, marking its largest single-day drop since February. Meanwhile, interest rate swap markets indicate that the probability of a Fed rate hike in July has dropped from over 40% previously to around 20%.

Dan Carter, senior portfolio manager at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, said: "This is a data release that fell short of expectations across the board. The possibility of a short-term rate hike has vanished. The market had been worried that inflation data would be too high, so this data should be good for the bond market and prompt the yield curve to steepen again. Our baseline expectation is that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, and this data confirms that view." (Jin Shi)

Odaily星球日报讯 연방준비제도 의장 월시는 전반적인 경제 상황에 대해 낙관적인 입장을 가지고 있다. 그는 노동 시장이 전반적으로 안정적이며, 거의 감원 현상이 없고 명목 임금도 증가했다고 본다. 이 연준 의장은 인공지능 분야의 번영에 대해 더욱 신중한 입장을 취하고 있다. 인공지능은 기업 투자 증가를 촉진했지만, 경제에 불확실성도 초래하고 있다.

월시는 "우리는 경제가 인공지능 발전으로부터 얼마나 많은 혜택을 받을 수 있을지 아직 명확하지 않다"고 말했다. "경제 분야에 나타난 새로운 기회는 동시에 정책 입안자들에게 새로운 도전 과제를 안겨주고 있다. 연준은 이러한 변화가 인플레이션과 노동 시장에 미치는 영향을 면밀히 주시하고 있다."(금십)

Odaily Planet Daily News: "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos reported that June CPI data showed a broad-based slowdown. Core goods prices fell for the second consecutive month, declining by 0.09%. Housing prices rose by only 0.12%. Core services prices excluding housing fell by 0.2%, marking the lowest level since the pandemic began.

Odaily Planet Daily News: Chip manufacturer Tower Semiconductor announced on July 14 local time that it will invest $3 billion to strengthen its chip manufacturing in Japan, including a $1 billion subsidy from the Japanese government. The statement said the first phase will significantly increase the production capacity of 300mm silicon photonics devices, with full production expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2027. This phase includes transforming the former Fab 6 plant to have 300mm silicon photonics device production capacity and advanced packaging capabilities. The second phase will start simultaneously with the first phase, including building a new 300mm lithography manufacturing plant next to the Fab 7 plant.

Odaily Planet Daily News, Coinglass data shows that in the past hour, global liquidations reached 60.83 million USD, with long liquidations at 4.02 million USD and short liquidations at 56.8 million USD. Additionally, BTC liquidations amounted to 28.89 million USD, and ETH liquidations reached 20.72 million USD.

Odaily News: Federal Reserve Chairman Wash stated that the Fed's primary goal is to get monetary policy right—or as right as possible. If we choose the right policies, then the inflation surge of the past five years will become history. My colleagues and I recognize that high inflation has been an undue burden on American families and businesses. Over a longer time frame, underlying inflation is largely determined by monetary policy. We are jointly and firmly committed to restoring price stability, which was the core topic of our June meeting.

The most prominent feature of the current economy is business investment. Its rapid pace—which appears to be accelerating—largely reflects the construction of data centers and the enormous demand for AI-related equipment and software to fill these centers. (Jin Shi)

Odaily星球日报讯 美国 6 月份消费者价格六年来首次出现下滑，且一项衡量潜在通胀的关键指标基本持平，这在一定程度上缓解了美联储加息的压力。根据美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据，消费者价格指数（CPI）较 5 月份下降 0.4%，较上年同期上涨 3.5%。剔除食品和能源后的核心指数与 5 月份持平，较上年同期上涨 2.6%。

该报告显示，随着伊朗战争引发的能源价格冲击最严重时期开始消退，6 月份汽油价格的下跌为消费者带来了一定程度的缓解。在美联储本月底召开会议之前，美联储官员可能会对这一数据表示欢迎；不过，美伊敌对局势重燃导致油价再次上涨，这可能延长该冲突引发的通胀影响。随着投资者减少对美联储 7 月份加息的押注，美国股指期货上涨，国债收益率下跌。数据显示，核心通胀指标受到抑制，主要归因于服装和二手车等商品价格的下跌。机动车保险费也大幅下降。(金十)

Odaily Planet Daily News: Federal Reserve Chair Waller stated that AI opportunities pose challenges for policymakers, and the Fed is monitoring AI's impact on inflation and the labor market. (Jin10)

According to Gate data, after the release of the CPI data, U.S. and Brent crude oil prices showed little short-term change, standing at $79.76/barrel and $85.5/barrel, respectively.

Odaily Planet Daily News 시장 가격에 따르면, 이번 달 연준의 금리 인상 베팅이 하향 조정되었습니다. 미국 2년 만기 국채 수익률은 이날 10bp 하락한 4.18%를 기록했습니다. (Jinshi)