In 2027, North American AI data center demand is expected to be approximately twice the deliverable supply, with electricity becoming the decisive constraint

According to Odaily, FUNDA stated on the X platform that in 2027, North American AI data center demand, measured by IT load, will reach approximately 35GW, while the actual deliverable supply is only 16.5 to 23.4GW. The overlapping range of the two independent supply estimates shows that the gap between demand and deliverable supply is 1.8 to 2.1 times, which serves as the core of this report.

Demand was cross-validated through two methods, yielding similar results. Based on CoWoS capacity build-out estimates, global chip-level electricity demand in 2027 will be 44 to 49GW; based on platform-by-platform bill of materials estimates, the result is 48.4GW. The current market discussion range is 40 to 60GW, and the report projects global demand at approximately 50GW, with North America accounting for about two-thirds.

Supply is largely locked in, and capital investment cannot change this situation. The grid interconnection pathway can deliver 11 to 14GW of IT load, entirely dependent on which projects enter the interconnection queue before mid-2025; applications submitted today cannot form supply by 2027. Behind-the-meter equipment, after accounting for overlaps, can add 5.5 to 9.4GW of IT load, but large gas turbine orders are already booked through 2031. Since it typically takes 4 to 5 years from order placement to commercial operation, units ordered today will form supply between 2030 and 2032.

Electricity delivery is the decisive constraint, and it sits upstream of all stages that project developers can accelerate with capital investment. Permitting approvals prevent 78% of the 43GW of shelved projects from progressing. Over the past 12 months, electricity-related factors have caused 60% to 70% of project delays on a megawatt-weighted basis. This is followed by a shortage of certified labor: skilled electricians require 10,000 hours of training, and currently only about 30% of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing/HVAC workers are located in the regions that host 70% of projects. Modular construction can compress construction timelines, but it cannot shorten queue times, only reducing the probability of commercial operation delays by 10% to 20%.

Scarcity is already reflected in prices. Annual recurring revenue per GW among the four comparable companies ranges from $8.3 billion to $50 billion, and NBIS has signed contracts within 18 months at prices 3 to 4 times its existing installed unit price. The major repricing in Q1 and Q2 has concluded, and the report expects the market to stabilize and rise modestly starting in Q4 2026. As new supply comes online, rents calculated on a generational basis are expected to decline by approximately 20% to 30%, while utilization rates will remain relatively high.

The four electricity procurement pathways correspond to four different risk profiles. xAI trades speed for doubled electricity costs and permitting approval risks, holding the shortest contract terms among the four companies; CRWV converts electricity delivery risk into refinancing risk; NBIS operates on customer prepayments and serves as the most direct evidence of price changes; IREN possesses legacy energized capacity and has the lowest capital cost among the four, but its queue position for new capacity is the same as the others.