Glassnode: Bitcoin Still in "Capitulation Phase," Current Rebound Should Be Viewed as a Local Recovery Within the Bottoming Process

Odaily Planet Daily News: Glassnode's latest report indicates that Bitcoin's on-chain structure remains in the "capitulation phase," with the short-term holder cost basis having fallen to approximately $68,500, below the real market average of around $75,800. At the same time, the current relative unrealized loss peaked at about 25%, significantly lower than the over 60% level seen during capitulation phases in previous cycles. This suggests that the current market loss is relatively shallower but more dispersed in distribution, which may require a longer period to complete the clearing process.

Glassnode also stated that the 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio currently stands at 0.75, whereas historically this indicator typically drops below 0.5 before seller exhaustion occurs. Therefore, true seller exhaustion has not yet emerged. Glassnode further noted that until this indicator breaks back above 2, any price rebound should be viewed more as a local recovery rather than a fundamental shift in market trend.

Additionally, the 30-day directional premium in the perpetual futures market turned significantly negative during the latest decline but has now rebounded clearly and re-entered positive territory. This indicates that leveraged traders are once again willing to pay a premium for long exposure, suggesting that speculative risk appetite has improved somewhat. However, in contrast to the improvement in the perpetual futures market, the Coinbase Premium Index remains persistently negative, indicating that demand from the U.S. spot market has yet to show a meaningful return.