Predictive markets bet on Fed holding rates steady in September, Polymarket probability at 63%
2026-08-09 17:43
Odaily Planet Daily News Predictive markets show that the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is dominant. Polymarket's related market trading volume has exceeded $20.3 million, with a 63% probability of keeping rates unchanged; Kalshi's corresponding probability is 65%, with trading volume approaching $4.9 million.
CME FedWatch shows a 55.6% probability that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on September 16, and a 44.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. As of July 31, CME FedWatch had put the probability of a rate hike at 67%.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 7 showed non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The Fed kept rates unchanged at its July 28-29 meeting, and the next meeting is scheduled for September 15-16.
CME FedWatch shows a 55.6% probability that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on September 16, and a 44.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. As of July 31, CME FedWatch had put the probability of a rate hike at 67%.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 7 showed non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The Fed kept rates unchanged at its July 28-29 meeting, and the next meeting is scheduled for September 15-16.
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