Analyst: ChangXin's massive first-day surge, but still struggles to alter the global DRAM competitive landscape

Odaily Planet Daily News, Milk Road AI analyst posted on X analyzing the surge in CXMT's stock price. The analyst stated that in less than the past year, CXMT's global DRAM market share has risen from less than 4% to approximately 7.7%-8%, with first-quarter revenue this year surging 719% year-on-year to 50.8 billion RMB. This growth is primarily driven by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron shifting more production capacity towards AI server memory (especially HBM), creating a supply gap in the traditional DDR5 and LPDDR5 markets, allowing CXMT to fill the demand for mid-to-low-end DRAM.

However, CXMT's current production capacity is far from sufficient to meet global demand. Its current monthly wafer production capacity is approximately 290,000 to 320,000 wafers, lower than Samsung's ~630,000 wafers and SK Hynix's ~500,000 wafers. Furthermore, US export restrictions on advanced lithography equipment are also limiting CXMT's ability to further expand its capacity.

The analyst believes that CXMT will still struggle to enter the HBM market in the short term and thus will not alter the AI memory supply-demand dynamics. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will continue to maintain their advantages in high-margin products like HBM, server DRAM, and LPDDR5X, and the global memory shortage cycle is likely to persist.