Analyst Lower SK Hynix Q2 Earnings Expectations, But Expects Long-Term Earnings Growth to Continue

Odaily Planet Daily News: Citrini analyst jukan posted on platform X that KIS Semicon analyst Minsook Chae predicts SK Hynix's operating profit for the second quarter of 2026 to be 60.4 trillion won, a 61% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 556% increase year-on-year, which is 8% lower than the market consensus of 65 trillion won.

The analyst stated that the downward revision is mainly due to SK Hynix's higher proportion of HBM sales compared to peers, lower-than-expected price increases for general DRAM, and the stabilization of ASP (Average Selling Price) due to Long-Term Supply Agreements (LTA). The forecast for the sequential growth rate of DRAM composite ASP in Q2 2026 has been lowered to 28.9% from the previous 50.0%; the growth rate for commodity DRAM ASP has been lowered to 34.2% from the previous 60.6%. As mass production of HBM4 officially begins in the third quarter of 2026, the composite ASP growth rate is expected to return to around a 10% market average sequential level.

However, the analyst believes this adjustment is not a signal of an industry downturn. The recent expectation revision is a more realistic reflection of the 3 to 5-year LTA structure and is expected to lead to more stable long-term earnings growth. The year-on-year operating profit growth rates for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 are forecast to be 419%, 53%, and 19%, respectively.