三个月“入熊”概率67%？美股“双重背离”罕见同时出现

Odaily Planet Daily News: Recently, multiple key indicators of the US stock market have simultaneously shown rare divergences, prompting institutions to reassess market risks. On one hand, the performance of the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq has clearly diverged; on the other hand, the semiconductor sector has continued to hit new highs, while the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, which have long led the market rally, are noticeably lagging behind. Multiple institutions believe that both sets of signals have appeared near historically significant market tops, warranting investor attention.

However, analysts also emphasize that the current market environment does not fully replicate that of 2021. At that time, the chip industry benefited from the recovery of demand for consumer electronics after the pandemic, whereas the current rally is primarily driven by the construction of artificial intelligence infrastructure. Companies in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and data center supply chains have become the biggest beneficiaries. As capital expenditures continue to rise, the free cash flow of large technology companies is under pressure, and the market is beginning to pay more attention to whether AI investments will ultimately deliver returns. This is also a key reason for the recent pressure on tech leaders. (Jinshi)