Jefferies Warns: Legislative Uncertainty over CLARITY Act Could Trigger Cryptocurrency Market Volatility

Odaily Planet Daily News According to the latest report from investment bank Jefferies, although the US "Clarity Act" passed a bipartisan 15:9 vote in the Senate Banking Committee, the subsequent legislative process still faces significant hurdles, and political uncertainty could intensify cryptocurrency market volatility in the coming weeks. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory boundary between digital assets overseen by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and is considered a core legislative framework for the US crypto market structure. Jefferies pointed out that smooth passage would significantly boost institutional participation, while delays would prolong regulatory uncertainty.

Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 has dropped to 48%, a significant decline from 70% in mid-May, mainly due to disputes over ethics clauses, anti-money laundering reviews, and a congested Senate agenda. Analysts note that with only about 20 legislative days left before Congress's August recess, it needs to complete the coordination of House and Senate versions, procedural votes, and submission to the President for signature. If it fails to advance before the recess, it could be delayed until next year, or even further postponed due to changes in the election cycle.

Jefferies believes that if the bill is enacted, it will drive the expansion of tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and crypto ETFs, and benefit the development of markets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, delays could potentially curb institutional investment in on-chain infrastructure and crypto-related IPOs.

Additionally, the market expects policy uncertainty to continue impacting the stock performance of crypto-related public companies such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish. Jefferies added that even as regulations gradually become clearer, increased competition in the stablecoin space could become a long-term source of pressure for companies like Circle. (CoinDesk)