Strategy valuation dips below Bitcoin holdings, mNAV falls below 1 for first time, drawing market attention

Odaily reported that Strategy's enterprise value has dropped below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, with its market value to net asset value (mNAV) falling below 1 for the first time, signaling a shift in the market's valuation logic for the company.

Data shows that Strategy's current stock price is approximately $82, down about 85% from its all-time high in November 2024. Its enterprise value is around $50.4 billion, while the value of its Bitcoin holdings is approximately $51.1 billion (calculated at a Bitcoin price of around $60,000). This means the market currently values the entire company lower than the value of the Bitcoin it holds.

For a long time, the market valued Strategy significantly higher than its Bitcoin reserves, allowing the company to raise funds at a premium and continuously accumulate more Bitcoin. This model was considered a key foundation of Michael Saylor's capital strategy. However, with the mNAV now below 1, raising funds through issuing new shares could have a dilutive effect on existing shareholders.

Analysts point out that this change also makes Strategy's valuation structure more similar to a "closed-end fund," akin to the discount trading state that Grayscale Bitcoin Trust experienced in different market cycles. Such structures typically lack effective arbitrage mechanisms, making it difficult to quickly correct discounts or premiums.

However, unlike traditional closed-end funds, Strategy still possesses a variety of capital instruments, including debt financing, equity financing, cash flow from its software business, and capital restructuring measures, theoretically giving it some flexibility to navigate market volatility. (CoinDesk)