Option market pricing shows about 40% probability that SpaceX will surpass Nvidia to become the "world's number one" by the end of 2028

According to Odaily, after its Nasdaq listing at a valuation of approximately $2.6 trillion, SpaceX quickly became the world's fifth-largest publicly traded company by market capitalization, competing with Amazon for ranking positions. However, option market pricing indicates that it will still take considerable time for SpaceX to climb to higher market cap tiers.

For SpaceX to surpass Apple and Alphabet (both with market caps exceeding $4.4 trillion) and jump to second place globally, its stock price needs to rise about 70% from current levels to $340. Option market pricing suggests the probability of SpaceX reaching that price by July 2028 is approximately 50%.

If SpaceX aims for the "world's number one" position by surpassing Nvidia's market cap, options markets estimate the probability of achieving this by June 2028 at about 38%, rising to approximately 41% by the end of 2028.

Analysts point out that option prices reflect the market's collective expectations for future trajectories. The pricing of high-strike-price options implies that while SpaceX has a strong growth narrative, its ascension to the world's most valuable company is still considered a high-uncertainty, long-cycle event. (CNBC)