Bitcoin's June correction triggers $8.6 billion in options 'out of the money', 80% of positions nearing expiration could amplify volatility

According to data from market data platform Deribit, as Bitcoin continued to decline in June, the options market expiring this month showed a significant imbalance. Approximately $8.6 billion notional value in BTC options are out of the money (OTM), facing the risk of expiring worthless.

Data shows that of the approximately $10.6 billion in open interest for options expiring on June 26, only about 20% are in the money (ITM), with the remaining 80% currently in a losing position. Analysts point out that this structural imbalance could trigger concentrated hedging adjustments by market makers and traders before expiration, thereby amplifying short-term market volatility.

The current market Max Pain price is approximately $74,000, about 14% higher than Bitcoin's current spot price of around $65,000. Theoretically, this price level means the most options contracts will expire worthless. Therefore, it may exert an upward price pressure effect as expiration approaches, but the effectiveness of this mechanism in the crypto market remains controversial.

Additionally, the bullish and bearish structures in the options market are relatively close, with a Put/Call ratio of about 0.87, indicating increased market sentiment divergence. Approximately $450 million in positions are concentrated in the $60,000 put option, while the $80,000 call option also forms a key resistance level worth about $406 million.

Analysts believe that with the quarterly expiration approaching, concentrated exercises and hedging adjustments could become important drivers of short-term price volatility, and Bitcoin may face a more intense directional window. (CoinDesk)