Delphi Digital: Since January Last Year, Only About 12% of New Tokens Listed on CEXs Are Above Issuance Price; Market Liquidity Imbalance

Odaily Planet Daily News Delphi Digital released the "Token Market Status Report," pointing out that the token market performance in this cycle is suppressed by multiple structural issues, including fixed-schedule token unlocks regardless of project performance, protocol revenues failing to flow back effectively to token holders, and airdrops gradually evolving into sources of exit liquidity.

The report shows that since January 2025, among all newly listed tokens on major centralized exchanges (CEX), if purchased on the listing day and held to date, an average of $1,000 would be worth only about $500; the median decline reaches 82%, and only about 12% of tokens remain above their issuance price, reflecting a market structure problem prioritizing "listing quantity over quality."

In terms of tokenomics design, the study points out that across over 400 unlock events, within a sample of 33, 28 tokens significantly underperformed Bitcoin in the three weeks before and after unlocking, causing an average excess return loss of about 7%. Moreover, most unlocks occur within 30 days, making it difficult for the market to effectively absorb supply shocks.

The report also notes that the long-standing industry issue of "lack of value accrual" is changing, as more protocols are beginning to return revenues to token holders through "Fee Switch" mechanisms. For example, Hyperliquid uses nearly all transaction fees for buybacks, Uniswap destroyed 100 million UNI tokens, Jupiter allocates 50% of fees to buybacks locked for three years, and Aave also passed a DAO-approved weekly buyback plan of $1 million.

However, the report emphasizes that fee-based buybacks alone are insufficient to address supply pressure. For instance, the scale of buybacks at some projects still cannot offset the selling pressure from token unlocks, leading to a situation where "buybacks only counteract inflation but fail to generate net buying pressure."

Meanwhile, the structure of institutional capital is changing. Institutional holdings in Bitcoin-related ETFs like IBIT have grown 62% year-over-year, with advisory channel growth at 204%, sovereign wealth funds and endowments up 228%, while arbitrage-focused hedge funds continue to exit. Long-term capital, including BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Mubadala Investment Company, is increasing allocations.

The report concludes that the next generation of more attractive token assets will simultaneously possess "revenue accrual mechanisms" and "supply release structures linked to protocol performance," while the current market remains in the early stages of structural repair.