Polymarket "Strait of Hormuz normalization by June 30th" probability drops to 25%, down 25% in a week

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket for the "Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by June 30th" event has dropped to 25%, a 25% decline in a single week. As of now, the total trading volume for this event has approached $12 million.

The contract rules for this event state: If the IMF Portwatch reports that the 7-day average number of vessel arrivals transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, is equal to or greater than 60, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Daily transit vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

US and Iranian forces previously clashed again near the Strait of Hormuz. However, former President Trump stated earlier today that negotiations with Iran over a temporary peace agreement would "yield good results." He faces a need to balance between potentially unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian funds at Tehran's request, a move that would invite criticism, and the pursuit of a deal. Trump had indicated last Friday that he would make a "final decision," but delayed it as both sides continue to negotiate details, including Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and how to reopen the Hormuz waterway, which may require mine clearance first.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.