According to Odaily, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has risen to 5.177%, reaching its highest level since 2007.
Odaily Planet Daily News Anthony Willis, Senior Economist at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, stated in a report that financial conditions have tightened—a trend clearly visible in the global bond market, where yields are rising significantly. He pointed out that due to rising energy costs, market expectations are for inflation to remain high for a longer period, leading to an upward trend in bond yields across many developed markets. Willis said the European Central Bank is expected to take the lead in raising interest rates at its June meeting, followed by the Bank of England in July. He added: "As for the Federal Reserve, market expectations have undergone a dramatic shift this year, moving from expectations of aggressive rate cuts under new leadership to current market pricing that reflects rate hikes over the next 12-18 months." (Jin Shi)
Odaily星球日报讯 대화은행 글로벌 경제 및 시장 리서치 부서의 전략가 Quek Ser Leang은 주간 차트 기준으로 미국 10년물 국채 수익률이 추가로 상승할 가능성이 있다고 밝혔습니다. 그는 10년물 국채 수익률이 지난주 23.1bp(베이시스 포인트) 상승 마감했으며, "과거 몇 차례 10년물 국채 수익률이 이처럼 뚜렷한 주간 급등을 기록한 이후, 수익률이 모두 추가 상승했다"고 지적했습니다. 그는 또한 지난주의 강한 상승이 "수익률이 5.021%와 4.809% 고점을 연결하는 주간 하락 추세선을 돌파하면서 발생했으며, 이는 수익률의 지속적인 상승 가능성을 높인다"고 덧붙였습니다. (금시)
Odaily星球日报讯 摩根士丹利划定的美股“警戒线”已经失守。该行首席投资官、华尔街知名大多头警告，若美债收益率继续上行且波动率攀升，美国股市将迎来“自 3 月底以来的首次显著回调”。摩根士丹利首席投资官迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）表示：“如果长期收益率上升伴随着债券波动率上升，我们预计股市将自 3 月底见底以来出现首次显著回调。”摩根士丹利将 10 年期美债收益率达到 4.5%标记为“收益率可能对股市估值构成更明显阻力的临界点”。（金十）
Odaily星球日报讯 由于投资者对通胀加速的担忧引发全球债券市场抛售，美国长期国债的收益率升至近三年来的最高水平。
在美国总统特朗普向伊朗施压，要求其就结束伊朗战争达成协议，导致油价延续涨势后，30 年期美债收益率一度上涨 4 个基点至 5.16%，创下 2023 年 10 月以来的最高水平。10 年期国债和 2 年期国债收益率分别触及 4.63%和 4.10%，为 2025 年 2 月以来最高。日本方面，30 年期日债收益率飙升 20 个基点至 4.2%，创下自 1999 年发行以来的最高水平。
债券交易员常将 30 年期美债 5%的收益率水平视为“分界线”，认为该位置会吸引抄底买家。法巴银行美国利率策略主管古尼特·丁格拉表示：“5%以上没有任何锚定点。”他建议客户关注 30 年期美债 5.25%至 5.5%的交易区间。(金十)
Odaily Planet Daily News After the 30-year US Treasury yield broke through the 20-year high of 5%, selling panic continued to spread on Monday. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield soared to 2.8%, a 30-year high; the South Korean stock market plunged during trading, triggering a circuit breaker; gold lost $4,500.
Investors said the key is that as long as the standoff in the Middle East continues to block oil flow through the vital Strait of Hormuz, the pressure on bonds will persist. Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, said: "This price action is worrying for two reasons: long-term interest rates are rising globally, they tend to influence each other, and the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is entering the market narrative." (Jin Shi)
Odaily Planet Daily News The recent sharp volatility in the US Treasury market presents a significant early test for incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh.
Subadra Rajappa, Head of Americas Research at Societe Generale, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on May 15 that bond yield movements have shown clear anomalies due to expectations of accelerating inflation.
Rajappa pointed out that the surge in energy prices caused by the war with Iran is intensifying inflationary pressure in the US. This will limit Walsh's room to push for interest rate cuts, a policy direction he himself has previously supported and which US President Donald Trump has also demanded. She stated bluntly: "I'm starting to get a bit concerned because bond yields do look like they are getting out of control. We should pay close attention to the signals the bond market is sending."
Expectations in the interest rate market have also shifted rapidly. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that traders now see nearly a two-thirds probability of the Fed raising interest rates by December. Just on February 27, the day before the US and Israel launched a military operation against Iran, the market was broadly betting on more than two rate cuts within the year. (Jinshi)
