A good friend sent me a message that resonated with me through the successes and failures of several recent trades, so I'd like to share it with you: We often misassess risk in two scenarios: 1. Betting too heavily on low-conviction outcomes (over-risking). Knowing how to quit is essential to preventing the escalation of life's "tail risk." "Cutting losses" isn't just financial jargon; it's a life principle. 2. Betting too light on high-conviction outcomes (missing opportunities). But when the signal is clear enough, be bold and go all-in, because: Life's returns follow a power law; it's a very small number of bets that truly change your destiny. My advice: 1. Most people over-bet on marginal hands (relationships, jobs, projects that "seem OK"). 2. True winners are those who dare to wait, brave enough to be bored, and brave enough to hold onto their positions until their pocket aces appear. 3. Avoid letting mediocre choices monopolize your attention, otherwise you won't see the bright spots. 4. Having the courage to exit and the courage to hold a large position are two different levels of courage.