比券商更准？TradeXYZ提前定价长鑫科技

Original by Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Golem (@web3_golem)

On July 27, the domestic memory chip leader ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) made its debut on the A-share STAR Market (科创板), setting multiple A-share historical records on its IPO day. It became the first stock in A-share history to surpass a market cap of 3 trillion yuan at the open (opening market cap of 3.31 trillion yuan), and the first individual stock to exceed a trading volume of 100 billion yuan within its first hour of trading. CXMT closed its listing day up 465.82%, with a total market cap fixed at 3.28 trillion USD, ranking first in the A-share market and surpassing the market cap of U.S. stock Intel globally.

Another notable aspect is that CXMT's listing has for the first time confirmed the "dominance" of TradeXYZ in pricing the A-share market.

As the first pre-market contract for an A-share individual stock listed on TradeXYZ, CXMT opened on the A-share market at 49.5 yuan. Based on the current USD/CNY exchange rate of 6.77, this equates to approximately 7.31 USD. At the same time, the CXMT contract on TradeXYZ was quoted at 7.12 USD, a deviation of less than 0.2 USD.

TradeXYZ Successfully "Pre-Priced" CXMT's IPO

As a hot tech stock, most domestic brokerages and institutions predicted before CXMT's IPO that a reasonable valuation on its listing day would fall between 2 trillion and 3 trillion yuan. Expectations above 3 trillion USD were already considered to fully incorporate the "domestic scarcity premium" and future performance assumptions, with a valuation of 4 trillion yuan only possible under extremely optimistic scenarios.

However, reality proved that the reports from domestic brokerages and institutions were still too conservative, whereas the overseas platform TradeXYZ was more accurate in its price discovery for CXMT.

On July 15, TradeXYZ listed the CXMT pre-market perpetual contract on Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market, supporting up to 5x leverage. Within hours of listing, buy orders worth millions of USD for CXMT appeared at the $6 level on Hyperliquid's order book, and the price subsequently rose steadily, hitting a high of $8.64 that day. Based on the pre-market price at that time, CXMT's market cap exceeded $550 billion, equivalent to over 3.72 trillion yuan, surpassing even Tencent to rank 32nd globally by market cap.

The CXMT contract on TradeXYZ reached a high of $8.64 on its first day of listing.

As the first individual stock contract for the A-share market listed on TradeXYZ, it provided risk exposure to investors who were not eligible to participate in CXMT's IPO subscription and trading. Therefore, there was also an emotional element in pricing CXMT on its first day of listing, which excessively pushed up the pre-market contract price.

The market quickly returned to rationality. On the eve of CXMT's listing on July 27, the CXMT pre-market contract price generally showed a correction trend, eventually stabilizing around $6.1-6.4 (approximately 41-43 yuan) on July 26, with market valuation still near 3 trillion yuan.

On July 27, CXMT opened with a market cap of 3.31 trillion yuan, which did not deviate significantly from its Pre-IPO valuation on TradeXYZ. During the call auction phase before CXMT's opening, the CXMT pre-market contract price on TradeXYZ further converged towards CXMT's A-share auction price. Ultimately, when the A-share market opened at 9:30 AM, the CXMT pre-market contract price was $7.12, with a deviation of less than $0.2 from CXMT's A-share spot opening price.

This left arbitrage-seeking investors hoping to profit from the difference between the on-chain market and traditional financial markets empty-handed. Well-known crypto KOL Jiang Zhuoer posted that there was "nothing to play with" for CXMT, as the call auction price on CXMT was virtually identical to the price on TradeXYZ, "making it currently impossible to buy or conduct arbitrage."

Therefore, TradeXYZ's price discovery for CXMT's IPO has been extremely successful. This means TradeXYZ's price discovery mechanism is becoming increasingly sophisticated and is further encroaching on traditional finance's pricing power for corporate IPOs in the global market.

Discounted Trading After the Opening

However, after the market opened, as CXMT was converted to a standard XYZ perpetual contract supporting up to 10x leverage, the mark price of the CXMT contract on TradeXYZ diverged from CXMT's A-share spot price. The CXMT contract on TradeXYZ traded at a discount compared to CXMT's A-share spot.

This is actually related to TradeXYZ’s oracle mechanism. During the Pre-IPO phase, since there was no external real price, the CXMT contract price was determined by TradeXYZ's internal oracle. After CXMT officially listed, the CXMT contract price gradually switched to tracking an external oracle based on A-share spot trading prices. Consequently, the deviation in the CXMT contract's mark price essentially stemmed from the difference with the external oracle price.

After the market opened, the CXMT contract's mark price deviated from the oracle price, with the gap widening to $0.4 at one point.

The reason for this deviation is that TradeXYZ implemented a gradual convergence limit during the transition period when the contract price switched from tracking the internal oracle to the external oracle. This means the contract's mark price was restricted to slowly converge towards the target price at a controlled speed. The oracle price update frequency was approximately every 3 seconds, but each change was limited to ±1%, and the contract's mark price could only converge progressively towards the target price. Hence, this restriction caused the CXMT contract's mark price to trade at a discount while catching up to the external oracle.

However, during A-share market closing hours, the CXMT contract price will switch back to being determined by the internal oracle price, essentially entering a "pre-market" trading phase.

Although CXMT is not the first individual stock Pre-IPO contract listed on TradeXYZ – which previously excelled in price discovery for U.S. companies like Cerebras and SpaceX – for TradeXYZ, pricing CXMT was also a significant test of its contract pricing mechanism, funding rates, and liquidity performance. Notably, the oracle also needed to apply a USD/CNY exchange rate conversion on top of the raw tracking price. This meant that the P&L of holders had to reflect both stock price and exchange rate fluctuations.

Judging from the results, aside from the brief episode of discounted trading caused by the oracle limit, TradeXYZ's transition of CXMT from a pre-market contract to a standard contract was relatively smooth. It avoided the public controversy that occurred with the SpaceX listing (Related reading: Hyperliquid Pre-Market Contract Controversy: What happened to the promised SpaceX share count?).

From a data perspective, as of press time, the open interest for CXMT on Hyperliquid was $91.85 million, peaking at $100 million. The 24-hour trading volume was $232 million, approximately 0.16% of CXMT's A-share spot trading volume on its first day.

Hyperliquid CXMT contract OI and trading volume.

However, judging TradeXYZ's value solely by trading volume would clearly underestimate its significance. The hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume on TradeXYZ is still just a drop in the ocean compared to traditional stock exchanges, and its liquidity position cannot shake the status quo. What it truly changes is the barrier to entry and the method of participating in the price discovery game for stocks like CXMT.

For global investors, TradeXYZ provides a novel channel to gain exposure to the price of the A-share market without needing to enter it directly. In the past, ordinary investors faced enormous barriers to participating in the A-share STAR Market, and it was even more difficult for overseas investors to directly obtain A-share risk exposure.

On TradeXYZ, however, without the need for a securities account, asset thresholds, or geographical restrictions, any wallet user holding stablecoins can gain risk exposure to trade CXMT. Moreover, it operates unaffected by traditional financial market closures. Even at this moment, the price discovery game for CXMT continues on-chain.

CXMT's Largest On-Chain Short Seller Faces Floating Losses Exceeding $1.4 Million

On CXMT's listing day, the bearish on-chain whales suffered significant losses, with the most representative being the "largest CXMT short seller."

Before CXMT's listing, the "largest CXMT short seller" address (0xf2...1244) on Hyperliquid had been increasing its CXMT short position for several consecutive days. According to hypurrscan data, this address currently holds a short position of 2.6 million CXMT, valued at approximately $18 million, with an average entry price of $6.4 (equivalent to 43.3 yuan). As of press time, it has an unrealized loss of $1.39 million.

The largest CXMT short position on Hyperliquid.

Notably, one hour before CXMT's listing today, he placed close orders for his short position at prices between $2 and $4.5 (equivalent to approximately 13~30 yuan). This suggests he believes CXMT's reasonable valuation is at most 2 trillion yuan.

Conversely, an on-chain whale who went long on CXMT before the market realized substantial gains. The address 0x2b6…32f6c had been consistently adding to its CXMT long position since July 23. According to hypurrscan data, this address currently holds 977,000 CXMT long positions, valued at approximately $6.77 million, with an average entry price of $6.71 (equivalent to 45 yuan). As of press time, it has an unrealized profit exceeding $200,000. This whale also holds a long position in SK Hynix valued at $380,000.

Furthermore, this whale has placed take-profit orders for his long positions at prices ranging from $7.1693 to $7.688. This implies he believes CXMT's market cap could still surge again to over 3.4 trillion yuan (its intraday high market cap exceeded 3.5 trillion yuan).

Analyzing the long-short divergence from a regional perspective, according to HyperInsight monitoring, on the eve of CXMT's listing, attributable CXMT wallets on Hyperliquid showed that wallets tagged as US, Hong Kong, and Mainland China were predominantly bullish, while wallets tagged as South Korea were the primary bearish force in this sample. Specifically, South Korean wallets held short positions of approximately $760,000, with a short-to-long ratio of about 38x. Wallets tagged as Taiwan were also bearish, with a net short of approximately $329,000.

On the long side, wallets tagged as the US held $1.6 million in long positions and $345,000 in short positions, resulting in a net long of approximately $1.255 million. Wallets tagged as Hong Kong held $1.3 million in long positions and $431,000 in short positions, resulting in a net long of approximately $869,000. Wallets tagged as Mainland China held only $83,000 in long positions and $16,000 in short positions, resulting in a net long of approximately $67,000.

Assuming the $760,000 short position from the South Korean wallets was all opened before the market opening at a uniform price of $6.48 with no subsequent adjustments and using 1x leverage, the theoretical floating loss on the short position would be approximately $48,500, a loss rate of about 6.4%.