Polymarket's hardest prediction is... when POLY will be airdropped
- Core Thesis: Polymarket's "World Cup Winner" prediction event set a new all-time high in platform trading volume, with the sports market emerging as its new growth engine. Simultaneously, the platform quietly raised fees to boost revenue, but its POLY token airdrop plan continues to be delayed due to compliance adjustments and shifting priorities, sparking community controversy.
- Key Elements:
- The "World Cup Winner" prediction event reached a trading volume of $4.32 billion, surpassing the "2024 US Presidential Election" at $3.686 billion, making it the largest single prediction market in Polymarket's history.
- During the six weeks of the World Cup, Polymarket's football (soccer) sector accumulated a total trading volume of $8.5 billion, four times the combined total of all other sports categories during the same period.
- On July 10th, Polymarket increased the Taker fee coefficient for the sports market from 0.03 to 0.05, raising transaction costs by up to 66.7% (maximum fee per 100 shares increased from $0.75 to $1.25).
- The sports sector fee rate has been raised from the lowest tier to match categories like economics and culture, surpassed only by the cryptocurrency market ($1.75 per 100 shares). The platform is increasing revenue by gradually expanding the scope of its fee structure.
- Polymarket's official affiliated accounts deleted tweets hinting at an airdrop, making the community highly sensitive to the possibility of the POLY airdrop being canceled. However, the platform's official statement asserts, "no airdrop plans have been announced yet."
- The community speculates two reasons for the airdrop delay: firstly, waiting for a more opportune compliance window to avoid regulatory risks; secondly, the platform has already achieved profitability, reducing its reliance on token incentives, thus deprioritizing the airdrop.
Original by Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Asher (@Asher_ 0210)
Yesterday, the "World Cup Winner" prediction event finally settled with a trading volume of $4.32 billion, surpassing the "2024 US Presidential Election Winner" market at $3.686 billion, becoming the single highest-volume prediction event in Polymarket's history.
Additionally, over the six weeks of the World Cup, Polymarket's football (soccer) category accumulated a notional trading volume of $8.5 billion, four times the combined volume of all other sports markets during the same period.
The 2024 US election brought Polymarket into the mainstream spotlight, while the 2026 World Cup propelled it into the higher-frequency trading sports market. With $8.5 billion in six weeks and a single market hitting $4.32 billion, Polymarket has not only set new records but also discovered a traffic engine that runs faster than elections.
Leveraging World Cup Traffic, Polymarket "Quietly" Raises Fees in the Sports Section
On July 10, during the final stages of the World Cup, Polymarket increased trading fees for the sports market.
This adjustment wasn't announced directly to regular users but was included in the platform's developer Changelog. The Taker fee coefficient for the sports section was raised from 0.03 to 0.05, while the Maker rebate rate was reduced from 25% to 15%.
Although the fee increase from 0.03 to 0.05 seems small, the actual transaction cost rose by nearly 70%. For example, buying 100 shares of a sports event, when the share price is $0.50, results in the maximum fee. Before the adjustment, users paid a maximum of $0.75; after the adjustment, the maximum fee rose to $1.25. As the share price approaches $0.01 or $0.99, the fee symmetrically decreases at both ends. The specific distribution is shown in the table below.
With this change, the sports section is no longer in Polymarket's lowest fee tier. Previously, alongside Politics, Finance, and Tech categories, it belonged to a lower-cost trading category. After the adjustment, the maximum fee per 100 shares rose to $1.25, placing it in the same tier as the Economy, Culture, and Weather categories, and just below the Crypto market's $1.75.
Looking back over the past six months, the scope of Polymarket's fees has been quietly expanding.
In January 2026, Polymarket first introduced Taker fees in the 15-minute cryptocurrency market. In February, this expanded to parts of the College Basketball and Serie A markets. By March, all newly listed crypto markets started charging fees. Following the introduction of Fee Structure V2 at the end of March, categories like Politics, Finance, Economy, Culture, Weather, and Tech were gradually included.
For the platform, once user habits are established, raising fees has not led to widespread user churn, but allows the same trading volume to generate more revenue.
POLY Airdrop Controversy Reignites: How Much Longer Will Users Have to Wait?
Recently, the community noticed that the officially associated Polymarket account, Polymarket Traders, deleted a tweet posted on May 13. The original tweet was interpreted by the community as a hint towards a POLY airdrop. After its deletion, many users began re-examining the account's historical content, reigniting discussions around whether the "airdrop plans have changed."
The market is so sensitive because the speculation about Polymarket issuing a token is far from baseless. In October 2025, Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer, Matthew Modabber, explicitly stated on a podcast: "There will be a token, and there will be an airdrop." He also mentioned that Polymarket's primary focus at the time was re-entering the US market, and the token plan would proceed after the US business was established, praising Hyperliquid's approach to token launch.
This statement once led the community to believe that POLY was just a matter of time. Since then, trading volume, market-making scale, and active days have also been considered by many users as potential airdrop weighting factors. Even though the platform has never announced a snapshot date or distribution rules, users have continued trading, waiting for the token launch plan to materialize.
The problem is that while the US business has progressed and the highly anticipated World Cup has ended, POLY still lacks a timeline. Attentive users have noticed that Polymarket's help center on the official website has recently added a notice indicating that the platform "has not announced any plans for an airdrop or token generation event," and warns users to be wary of scams conducted under the guise of airdrops. This doesn't necessarily mean POLY is canceled, but for users who have been waiting for a long time, the question is no longer whether Polymarket will issue a token, but how much longer this "future" will be delayed.
Currently, the community has two main theories regarding the delay. One view suggests that Polymarket is waiting for a more suitable compliance window. The platform is still expanding its US business, and issuing a token along with an airdrop could introduce additional regulatory issues. Deleting overly direct hints from associated accounts before a formal plan is finalized might simply be a tightening of external messaging.
Another view posits that Polymarket no longer has an urgent need to issue a token, potentially becoming the next OpenSea. In the past, the platform relied on airdrop expectations to attract users, boost trading volume, and supplement liquidity. Now, Polymarket boasts a massive user base and genuine revenue, with fees steadily increasing. As the platform's reliance on a token diminishes, the priority for POLY may naturally continue to be pushed back.
In the past, the community discussed how POLY would be airdropped and whether trading volume counted towards the allocation. Now, the discussion has shifted to how much longer the wait will be and what the next anticipated milestone might be. Polymarket, which lists countless prediction events, has yet to set a settlement date for its own airdrop.
