BIT Research: Why Are Stocks Hitting New Highs While Gold and Bitcoin Are Falling?
- Core Thesis: Since the start of 2025, the market has been alternately driven by three major macro catalysts—Fed rate hikes, geopolitical conflicts, and the AI investment boom—leading to a significant divergence in the performance of the S&P 500, gold, and Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin is approaching a cyclical bottom, and an improvement in the macro environment after September is expected to drive these assets higher once again.
- Key Factors:
- Significant Asset Divergence: The S&P 500 is up 9%, gold is down 6%, and Bitcoin is down 31%, showing a decoupling among three traditionally correlated assets.
- Fed Policy Pressure: Rate cut expectations have completely reversed. The hawkish stance of the June FOMC meeting has put pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets like gold and Bitcoin.
- Geopolitical Shockwaves: The US-Israel strike on Iran triggered a rise in oil prices, sending Bitcoin down to $60,000 and breaking the traditional safe-haven model.
- AI Narrative as the Main Theme: Anthropic's annual revenue exceeded $30 billion, and NVIDIA invested in Marvell, driving the Nasdaq index significantly higher.
- Slowing Trading Momentum: Post-June, corporate focus shifted to AI costs and the entry of Chinese open-source models into the market. Bitcoin fell back to $63,000 after May's CPI data came in higher than expected.
The current market is in a repricing phase driven by multiple macro catalysts. Since the start of this year, the S&P 500 has risen 9%, gold has fallen 6%, and Bitcoin has dropped 31%, showing a clear divergence among these three asset classes that have traditionally exhibited some correlation. Factors such as Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and AI infrastructure investment have sequentially become the dominant market narratives, continuously reshaping the pricing logic for risk assets.
From the current perspective, asset performance is no longer determined by a single factor. Instead, assets are being repriced around new catalysts at different stages, shifting from the Fed’s hawkish stance, to the escalation of the Iran conflict, and then to the AI infrastructure investment boom.
Fed and War Dominate the Market: Liquidity Expectations Weigh on Risk Assets
Since the beginning of the year, the biggest market change has come from a reversal in expectations for Fed policy. Following Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh, the market began to price in a more hawkish monetary policy, completely reversing expectations for three rate cuts this year. Subsequently, the June FOMC meeting further confirmed the hawkish stance, keeping liquidity-sensitive assets like gold and Bitcoin under sustained pressure.
Simultaneously, military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran led to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices, and a stock market pullback. Gold also declined, as markets speculated that central banks in the Middle East might prioritize funds for reconstruction financing rather than increasing gold holdings. Bitcoin fell to around $60,000 under significant liquidation pressure, breaking its previous performance pattern observed during geopolitical conflicts.
AI Narrative Takes Over: From Infrastructure Boom to Slowing Trading Momentum
As the conflict de-escalated, market focus quickly shifted to AI infrastructure construction. NVIDIA announced a $2 billion investment in Marvell Technology, and Anthropic's annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassed $30 billion, exceeding OpenAI's previously disclosed ARR of $20 billion. This propelled the Nasdaq-related index from 23,200 points to 30,500 points, establishing AI as the new market主线.
However, entering June, the momentum in AI trading began to wane. The "tokenmaxxing" trend subsided as companies started focusing more on token usage costs. Chinese open-source models accelerated their entry into the market, OpenAI postponed its IPO to 2027, and Meta plans to sell surplus AI computing power, leading the market to reassess AI investment returns. Concurrently, the US CPI for May rose from 3.3% to 3.8%, exceeding market expectations. Bitcoin ETFs saw significant net outflows, divesting $9 billion worth of Bitcoin; the price of Bitcoin fell back from around $82,000 to approximately $63,000, once again demonstrating its high sensitivity to inflation and Fed policy expectations.
Overall, the market has experienced three core catalytic shifts this year—Fed policy, geopolitics, and the AI narrative—driving a clear divergence among stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. Looking ahead, we believe the Fed's hawkish stance is likely to gradually reverse after the summer. Gold has entered a technically oversold zone, and Bitcoin is approaching its cycle bottom target range of $50,000 to $55,000. With the September FOMC meeting approaching, a rebound in AI usage demand, and cooling inflation expectations, gold, Bitcoin, and AI-related trades are all expected to regain upward momentum.
Some of the above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: Markets are risky, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
