Global capital is undergoing a restructuring: The logic of risk asset pricing has entered a new phase

AI continues to push valuation highs, while the crypto market is still waiting for truly incremental capital.

Over the past period, global risk assets have shown clear divergence: on one hand, the US stock market's AI industry chain continues to attract institutional capital inflows, with valuations and earnings expectations rising in tandem; on the other, the overall liquidity of the crypto market remains weak, and apart from core assets like BTC, most sectors are still in a state of oscillation and rotation.

Both are risk assets, so why have they developed completely different rhythms?

Focusing on the theme "Global Capital is Restructuring: Risk Asset Pricing Logic Enters a New Phase," a recent Space discussed this change from the perspectives of capital structure, market expectations, and trading behavior.

The Divergence between AI and Crypto: Capital Seeks "Verifiable Certainty"

Regarding the most obvious market divergence, the consensus among several participants is that capital hasn't left risk assets but is instead reselecting directions with "stronger verifiability."

区块国宝 (Blockchain National Treasure) first pointed out that a key reason for the continued capital attraction of the current AI rally is that the industry chain has entered a "phase of deliverability."

More and more tech companies are beginning to show real revenue and growth paths. Institutions can price assets based on profit models, cash flow, and industry cycles, giving AI assets stronger explainability and a more sustainable allocation logic.

In contrast, aside from a few assets like BTC, most projects in the crypto market still rely on narratives and expectations. From Layer2 to Meme, and then to AI Agents and RWA, the rotation of hotspots is fast, but lacks a capital narrative capable of sustaining for several quarters.

In his view, the essence of this divergence is not a decline in risk appetite, but a repricing of "certainty" by capital.

From Broad Rally to Divergence: The Market Enters a Structural Phase

pandaWL believes that the current market state is closer to structural divergence rather than a simple correction.

He points out that BTC maintains a relatively stable market structure overall, but liquidity for small and mid-cap assets continues to decline. This indicates that the market has shifted from a phase of "overall upward momentum driving returns" to a phase of "capital concentration towards a few assets."

In this process, the importance of asset quality and capital efficiency has significantly increased.

He further states that for the market to re-enter an upward cycle in the next phase, relying solely on internal rotation is difficult; new sources of capital are needed.

For example, directions like RWA, stablecoin payments, and on-chain finance are essentially attempts to connect with the traditional financial system and build new capital gateways. Only when these channels truly achieve scale effects can the crypto market regain sustained incremental capital.

Beyond the World Cup, What Matters More is How the Market Prices Sentiment

As the World Cup enters the knockout stage, event-driven trading has once again become a focus of market discussion.

Crypto.0824 stated that compared to predicting match outcomes, he is more interested in the process of market sentiment change.

When the market forms a highly consensus expectation on a certain outcome, odds and prices have often already reflected the information. The real opportunity often lies in the capital redistribution phase *after* the expected outcome materializes.

Therefore, his focus is less on the results themselves and more on *how* the market reprices risk before and after the event.

He also pointed out that the World Cup is not just a sports event; it also drives synchronized fluctuations in prediction markets, sports-related assets, and community sentiment. From a trading perspective, it's more worthwhile to capture the impact of the event on capital flow rather than a single outcome.

Where Will the Next Wave of Incremental Capital Come From?

Regarding the market direction over the next 6-12 months, the judgment of the multiple participants is quite aligned: the market is transitioning from "narrative-driven" to "value-driven."

katelynn believes that future sectors capable of continuously attracting capital need to possess real commercial viability, not just rely on concept expansion.

She specifically highlighted three directions:

RWA: Bringing real-world assets on-chain, becoming a vital channel connecting traditional finance.

Stablecoin Payments: Evolving from a trading tool into a global payment and settlement infrastructure.

AI + Crypto Integration: Including AI Agents, on-chain data services, and decentralized compute networks.

The commonality among these directions is that they are gradually forming real users and actual demand, rather than solely relying on market sentiment.

Global Capital is Restructuring, Market Pricing Logic is Changing

Throughout the discussion, "restructuring" was a frequently mentioned keyword.

Whether it's the AI industry entering a phase of profit deliverability or the changes in liquidity structure within the crypto market, they all point to the same trend: global capital is redefining how risk assets are priced.

The broad-based rallies of the past, driven by liquidity, are being replaced by "structural selection." Capital is more inclined to flow towards assets that can continuously create value and demonstrate long-term deliverability.

At the same time, event-driven trading is becoming one of the new incremental scenarios for the crypto market. With the occurrence of global events like the World Cup, the interaction between market sentiment, outcome expectations, and capital flow is becoming more frequent.

In this context, prediction markets and event trading are becoming one of the evolving new narratives of the market.

Risk Warning: Digital assets and leveraged trading carry high risk, and market fluctuations may lead to the loss of principal. Please make rational judgments and prudent decisions.