Odaily Editorial Office Tea Session (June 3rd)
- Key Takeaways: Multiple analysts shared their views on the current crypto market conditions, unanimously agreeing that BTC and ETH have further downside potential. However, they have either started DCA or are waiting to buy the dip, while also monitoring event-driven opportunities such as the World Cup, SpaceX IPO, and the PUMP token unlock.
- Key Elements:
- Wenser predicts BTC may see a short-term rebound but will begin to decline after mid-July due to a lack of institutional buying. He has been making small multiple purchases at lows, treating them as DCA.
- The SpaceX IPO is priced at $135 per share, with a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. However, discrepancies between the estimated equity on Pre-IPO platforms and the actual share count may lead to dilution of the SPCX contract price.
- Asher plans to start DCA for BTC below $50,000 and ETH below $1,100. There was a short-term rebound to $72,000, but no trades were executed, with focus remaining on exchange World Cup activities.
- Nan Zhi pointed out that there is no Alpha left in the entire AI hardware supply chain. However, supply shortages make it difficult to disprove earnings reports. His personal plan is to watch for the moment when top-tier tokens drop to “dirt cheap” prices.
- The Pump token will unlock 8.25% of its total supply on July 14th. Despite the bleak market conditions, Pump.fun's daily revenue still exceeds $900,000. Golem suggests monitoring buying opportunities around the unlock period.
This is an "informal" column from within the Odaily editorial department. The author shares immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their nuanced details; explores investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being verified – they may not be direct paths to wealth, but could simply be the questions themselves; shares observations gained from communicating with industry practitioners; and shares materials that have genuinely enhanced our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.
The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial members. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising, nor does it constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is merely to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to create consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram Group, X Official Account) to discuss, question, and joke around together.
Wenser (@wenser2010)
Bio: Tea refiller, crypto observer, media watcher
Sharing: 1. BTC dropped but I didn't short it, because it felt like there would be a small rebound, and a smooth decline probably won't start until mid-July, given the absence of institutional buying from that wave last year. Currently making small frequent purchases, treating it as a DCA strategy.
2. SpaceX IPO is tentatively scheduled for next week, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Polymarket's SpaceX-related positions are poised for profit-taking. The commercial aerospace stock sector might see good news turn into a sell-off event. Feels like RKLB might be something to watch out for risk-wise?
3. The World Cup is about to kick off. The odds for the champion prediction seem decent. Currently have limit orders in for France and Spain, can consider buying in moderation. https://polymarket.com/event/world-cup-winner
4. Recommend paying attention to the "Jensen Huang sector". See "Crypto-Stock Barometer" published every Tuesday at https://www.odaily.news/post/5211119
5. Odaily has been very timely recently with coverage on stocks, ZEC, HYPE, and BNB. Those who followed along profited. Suggest turning on app notifications and enabling the bell. Follow Odaily, trade global stocks, enjoy a free life – you deserve it~
Asher (@Asher_0210)
Bio: Regular routine, long-term investor
Sharing: 1. Regarding the market, I plan to start DCA buying BTC below $50,000 and ETH below $1,100. There's a chance for a short-term rebound to $72,000, but as a long-term DCA investor, I have no interest in DCAing or buying the dip now. If it doesn't drop, I'm also okay with it. First, because it's spot DCA anyway, there won't be explosive gains; the funds allocated for this BTC and ETH DCA are solely for stability. Second, I have some early-stage projects from airdrop farming; if the market recovers, they might launch tokens one after another, potentially yielding pleasant surprises.
2. Prediction markets. The World Cup is coming. Major exchanges and the prediction market duopoly, Polymarket and Kalshi, should be launching events this week. My focus remains on farming these activities.
3. Regarding PUMP, the largest unlock is coming on July 14th, unlocking 8.25% of the total supply. Although the market is bleak, Pump.fun's daily revenue remains above $900,000. There might be a buying opportunity around the unlock period. Personally, I believe even if the crypto market stays in this "half-dead" state, the Meme track will still see occasional hot topics. Therefore, trusting that as the largest Meme launch platform, I have started DCA buying PUMP. Additionally, I will soon write an analysis of the PUMP token from a supply-demand perspective. Stay tuned.
golem (@web3_golem)
Bio: golem's whimsical ideas
Sharing: I'm back to talking about SpaceX's pre-IPO valuation on the Pre-IPO platform. I am still holding a long position on SPCX. According to a Reuters report today, SpaceX plans to issue 555.6 million shares at $135 per share, corresponding to a company valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. This implies SpaceX's total shares outstanding are about 12.963 billion. Previously, in its S-1 filing, SpaceX also hinted at its total shares outstanding, roughly between 12.5 billion and 13.0 billion, which is basically consistent with this Reuters report.
Why do I care about SpaceX's total shares outstanding? Because the current SpaceX perpetual contract on Pre-IPO platforms mainly uses a valuation formula: "Current SPCX price * Estimated share count = SpaceX Pre-IPO valuation." Both tradexyz and Binance estimate SpaceX's total shares outstanding at 11.87 billion. Logically, if the actual total shares outstanding are higher than their estimates, then even if the pre-IPO valuation remains unchanged, the SPCX contract price on the platform would be diluted. This is why the SPCX pre-IPO contract dropped over 3% this morning.
It's not a valuation collapse, but rather the market independently pricing SPCX based on SpaceX's actual share count, deviating from the platform's set estimated shares. Regarding this significant deviation between the platform's estimated shares and SpaceX's actual total shares outstanding, neither tradexyz nor Binance has taken action yet. Binance, however, did add a disclaimer when listing the SPCX pre-IPO contract, stating that Binance reserves the right to adjust the contract amount of the Pre-IPO perpetual contract based on the actual share count.
In summary, this is extremely unfavorable for ordinary investors. We not only have to bet on SpaceX's actual IPO market cap but also contend with the rules of these Pre-IPO platforms. If, upon the final listing, the pre-IPO valuation roughly matches the actual market value, but the SPCX contract price plummets due to differences in total shares outstanding, who bears the investors' losses?
Pre-IPO perpetual contracts in US stocks are a new thing being widely rolled out this cycle. However, there are many rough issues in actual operation that need to be discussed and resolved.
Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
Bio: Choking on dreams together
Sharing: 1. The entire AI hardware supply chain has been thoroughly picked over. There's no Alpha in the targets, only Beta, just different magnitudes.
2. The entire supply chain is facing shortages across the board - shortages, shortages, shortages. Earnings cannot be falsified, and financial reports will only look better. So the question comes down to whether growth rates can become increasingly beyond imagination.
3. Got off the MRVL train midway. Reflecting, I underestimated everyone's demand for, imagination of, and sentiment towards building dreams.
4. Reverting to point 1, medium-term depends on sentiment. Driven by dreams, the targets will only accelerate, not "sell the news."
5. My key personal plan for dreaming: When will the token pricing for top-tier models drop to rock bottom prices?
