BitMart Research Weekly: ETF Outflows Continue + AI Drain, Crypto Market Struggles to Find Bottom

1. Macroeconomic & Traditional Financial Markets

1. AI Narrative Strengthens: Anthropic Files Confidentially, Alphabet Doubles Down, Tech Stocks Hit New Highs

This week, the three major U.S. stock indices continued their upward trend, maintaining strong momentum. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.13%, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.81%. The S&P 500 has accumulated a gain of approximately 16% since April, marking its ninth consecutive weekly gain and the longest winning streak since 2023. AI remains the core driving force, with the chip and storage sectors continuing to lead the rally. The narrative of an AI infrastructure "arms race" continues to receive positive feedback from the capital markets.

The most significant event this week was Anthropic officially filing its S-1 confidentially with the SEC on June 1st, targeting a valuation of approximately $965 billion, with potential IPO fundraising reaching up to $75 billion. If successful, it could become one of the largest IPOs in history. Simultaneously, Alphabet announced a massive $80 billion new round of AI infrastructure financing, with Berkshire Hathaway participating to the tune of $10 billion. These signals further reinforce the market's pricing expectations for the long-term expansion potential of AI infrastructure. However, the potential liquidity drain effect of the Anthropic IPO is also beginning to attract market attention. While the company's annualized revenue has surpassed $47 billion, it remains in a high-growth phase, and its current valuation is essentially dependent on a deep discounting of future AI application layer revenues. If the post-IPO market cap validation falls short of expectations, or if it pressures public market liquidity concurrently with SpaceX, the correction pressure on AI tech stocks will increase significantly.

2. Geopolitics: US-Israel Military Action Escalates, US-Iran Negotiation Window Remains, Energy Prices Come Under Pressure Again

Geopolitical developments diverged this week. On one hand, Trump indicated that US-Iran negotiations were progressing well, with discussions on extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz continuing, leading to a temporary narrowing of tail-risk expectations for a full-scale Middle East conflict. On the other hand, Israel announced an expansion of ground operations in Lebanon, and joint US-Israel military actions triggered a new wave of regional tensions. Brent crude oil rose about 1.3%, back to near $93 per barrel. Energy market volatility reflects the current contradictions in macro pricing: the AI-driven tech investment boom has reduced market recession fears, but unstable energy supply, persistent core inflation, and the second estimate for Q1 US GDP being revised down to an annualized rate of 2.5% mean the Federal Reserve still lacks sufficient room for rate cuts. Copper prices also rose further due to the approaching US tariff review, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup successively raising their full-year price targets.

3. New Fed Framework & Rate Expectations: Warsh Officially Takes Office, June FOMC Window Opens

Newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in on May 22nd. The market views the June 17th FOMC meeting, which he will lead, as a key node for H2 macro pricing. According to the latest CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed maintaining the current rate range in June is as high as 99.4%, and 93.0% for July, indicating extremely limited short-term rate cut expectations. With U.S. Treasury yields remaining high recently, the macro-financial environment is effectively equivalent to a "stealth rate hike" of about 75 basis points in real terms, implicitly suppressing risk asset valuations. Last week, the U.S. Dollar Index fell back to 98.942, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.437%, and gold closed at $4,538, reflecting the market's dual pricing for "prolonged high interest rates + rising safe-haven demand." The May non-farm payrolls data due this week will be a crucial variable for verifying the Fed's subsequent policy path.

Additionally, the Japanese Yen continues to weaken, falling 1.7% in May alone and approaching the critical 160 level. The Japanese Ministry of Finance spent approximately $7.36 billion on intervention over the past month, but bearish bets on the Yen by leveraged funds have risen to their highest level since July 2024. If the Bank of Japan delivers a larger-than-expected rate hike at its June 16th meeting, the unwinding of global carry trades could marginally tighten liquidity, potentially suppressing both tech stocks and crypto assets.

2. Crypto Market

1. Market Overview: BTC Falls ~6% for the Week, ETF Sees Record Consecutive Net Outflows

The crypto market continued its correction this week, diverging significantly from the new highs in U.S. equities. BTC opened the week around $77,267 and fell to approximately $72,675 by June 1st, a weekly decline of about 6%. ETH concurrently dropped about 4.5%, with the ETH/BTC ratio remaining roughly flat, indicating similar capital pressure on both assets rather than independent ETH weakness. ETF fund pressure was particularly prominent. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their longest consecutive net outflow streak since listing in January 2024, with net outflows for nine consecutive trading days totaling approximately $2.8 billion. On its single largest outflow day, BlackRock's IBIT saw net outflows of about $528 million, its second-largest single-day outflow since listing. Spot Ethereum ETFs also experienced net outflows for 13 consecutive days, totaling roughly $694 million. The market Fear & Greed Index further dropped from 39 last week to 29, entering the "Fear" zone.

On the derivatives front, BTC open interest declined in tandem with the price drop. Deribit's options skew rose back to around 16%, with Put option premiums approaching extreme levels, indicating a significant increase in hedging demand. The total stablecoin market cap decreased by approximately $2.758 billion over the past 7 days, reflecting continued weakness in on-chain spot buying power. Overall, the Crypto market lacks independent incremental capital drivers and remains suppressed by institutional capital flowing towards AI tech assets.

2. RWA & On-Chain Equities: DTCC Connects to Stellar

On May 27th, DTC, a subsidiary of DTCC, announced plans to integrate its tokenized asset services onto the Stellar public chain, expected to go live in the first half of 2027. This will cover the tokenized issuance, corporate action processing, and cross-chain interoperability of blue-chip stocks, ETFs, and U.S. Treasuries. DTCC processes approximately $4.7 quadrillion in securities transactions annually. Its integration with Stellar signifies that tokenized equities are formally entering the core U.S. securities settlement infrastructure, moving beyond being merely built on the issuance layer of on-chain platforms. Following this news, XLM surged over 30% on the day, with 24-hour trading volume spiking more than 9-fold.

3. Long-Term Perspective: MicroStrategy Pauses BTC Purchases, Anthropic IPO Could Be a Liquidity Inflection Point

MicroStrategy's actions this week are noteworthy. Between May 26th and 31st, the company sold a small amount of 32 BTC to pay preferred stock dividends while also pausing its ATM equity offering program used to raise funds for BTC purchases. Its current holdings stand at approximately 843,700 BTC. The company's strategy has shifted towards debt management, prioritizing the buyback of approximately $1.5 billion of its zero-coupon convertible bonds due in 2029, while its BTC buying operations have temporarily stalled. As one of the major incremental buyers in the crypto market over the past two years, MicroStrategy's slowing pace implies a reduction in short-term support.

From a broader macro perspective, Anthropic formally filed its S-1 on June 1st, and SpaceX is also progressing towards a massive IPO. The combined potential fundraising scale of these two could exceed $100 billion. Historically, mega-IPOs often create a liquidity drain on secondary markets in the short term. Both AI tech stocks and crypto assets, as high-beta risk assets, will face pressure from the periodic diversion of capital. Overall, the biggest macro headwind currently facing Crypto is the continuous strengthening of the AI landscape. With high-valuation tech assets like Anthropic and SpaceX successively impacting public market liquidity, the window for Crypto to stage an independent rally remains limited. If the AI bubble undergoes a phased correction in the future, BTC may experience a significant adjustment synchronously. However, this window could paradoxically become the formation point for the bottom of a new Crypto cycle.

This article is solely a market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment involves high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk controls before trading.