美股喊单王Serenity：领先机构低位建仓，年回报3840%

Original by Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Golem (@web3_golem)

If you are an investor focused on US-listed AI and semiconductor stocks and haven't heard of Serenity yet, chances are your research is still on the sidelines.

Why is that? Because he is currently the hottest stock picker on the internet, with everyone from retail investors to Wall Street reading his reports and copying his trades. Some have even packaged his free public insights into paid courses sold within online communities.

On May 24, Serenity revealed his investment performance for the year on X: a year-to-date return of 3840.39%. Just a day earlier, he had also posted his return over the past two years, an astounding 2256.99%.

Serenity: "Miles Ahead"

Serenity only joined X in July 2025, but by May of this year, his follower count had surged to 358,000, with over 32,000 subscribers, trailing Elon Musk's subscriber count by fewer than 15,000. Yet, no one knows Serenity's true identity. What people know of his background comes solely from his bio:

• Former Reddit WSB (Wall Street Bets) trader who moved to X (Note by Odaily: Wall Street Bets is the largest retail trading community in the US. Serenity was banned for recommending a stock ticker AXTI in 2022. This stock has since gained over 700% year-to-date);
• AI and semiconductor supply chain analyst, former RISC-V Foundation member, former AI research scientist;
• Currently primarily trades "bottlenecks that no one is paying attention to";

From this bio, it's clear Serenity positions himself as an AI expert, once claiming he turned down a job offer from Nvidia's AI team in 2018. In one post, Serenity stated that his investment approach is based on a thorough understanding and research of the AI and semiconductor industry. His typical research process is: first, conduct initial paper research, then transform these ideas into actual strategies and trades, followed by due diligence on the alpha, and finally, celebrate when the stock goes up.

As shown below, community user @kaikaibtc compiled Serenity's current major stock holdings, primarily concentrated in the AI supply chain sectors like optical modules, silicon photonics, memory, CPO, and substrates. Not one of these 21 stocks has a profit lower than 100%, and AXTI, Serenity's most frequently mentioned stock pitched for over two years, has yielded over 10,000% profit. He has publicly stated that AXTI is his most legendary trade.

However, what's perhaps more remarkable than these exaggerated profits is that Serenity often identified these targets before they were on the radar of not just retail investors, but even institutions.

When Serenity first posted about and pitched a stock, he was mostly met with skepticism. It was only months, or even a year later, when investors saw the stock's phenomenal performance, that they realized he was right – RPI, AXTI, SIVE are vivid examples. After this pattern repeated itself, the Serenity account became a must-read for retail investors, Wall Street, and even Silicon Valley investors.

Why is Serenity always able to stay ahead of the market and uncover undervalued stocks? His secret is the self-constructed supply chain bottleneck (Chokepoint) investment theory.

The Chokepoint Investment Method

"Chokepoint" is the most frequent word in Serenity's posts and his core investment logic.

AI is undoubtedly the world's dominant narrative today, but the AI industry faces a clear supply-demand imbalance. On one side, internet giants are pouring massive capital into AI infrastructure in an "arms race." On the other, the supply side is clearly insufficient, with Nvidia orders even entering a "rationing system." Capital has thus realized that the current stage of AI development is not about downstream applications, but the upstream supply chain. Whoever holds a critical, irreplaceable position in the AI supply chain is the most deserving of being revalued.

Consequently, in recent months, the market's hype around the AI industry has dismantled from the initial focus on GPU computing power step-by-step down the chain: the second layer is memory, data centers, and optical modules; further down is electricity, materials, and network equipment. This layered deconstruction of the AI supply chain to find key "bottleneck" enterprises in each segment is essentially Serenity's chokepoint investment method, except he acts far earlier than most retail investors and institutions.

On March 31, Serenity used an analogy when pitching AXTI to vividly illustrate what a chokepoint is. He compared it to the Strait of Hormuz, through which over 20% of the world's crude oil supply passes – a critical chokepoint in global energy trade. He argued that AXTI's role for AI optical module companies is analogous to the Strait of Hormuz's role for global energy trade.

The essence of Serenity's ability to generate excess returns still stems from market information asymmetry. Through sharp thinking and forward-looking vision, he seeks out "hidden champions" in the AI supply chain that are not yet fully priced in. These companies are not as glamorous as giants like Nvidia, Micron, or SK Hynix, but they are small monopolies whose shortage or shutdown could create seismic shocks for the trillion-dollar downstream AI industry.

For example, when pitching IQE in February-March this year, Serenity repeatedly noted that both IQE and Landmark are major photonic chip epitaxial wafer foundries, but IQE's overall production capacity is much larger. At the time, Landmark's market cap was around $3.8 billion, while IQE's market cap was only $135 million.

It's worth noting that Serenity is not a superhuman with encyclopedic knowledge of every link in the AI supply chain. He often mentions using AI assistance for his AI supply chain research, including deconstructing the industry chain, discovering suppliers, and debating viewpoints with AI.

True Legend or "Photoshop Master"?

In the investment world, over-mythologizing any single person is extremely dangerous. Serenity's win rate is not 100%. Stocks he recommended earlier this year, like CPSH and INFQ, experienced significant drawdowns in February and March. Instead of blindly copying his portfolio, retail investors and traders should learn from his research framework and mindset, develop their own system, and ultimately find their own alpha.

Serenity is also a highly idealistic and mysterious figure. None of his publicly available personal information has been verified by a third party; no one even knows if he is male or female. The only personal details he has shared are that he lives a digital nomad lifestyle and is currently in Japan learning Japanese. He briefly lived in mainland China, so he understands some Chinese, and frequently travels to South Korea, the UK, Singapore, and Canada, claiming to have visited at least 28 countries.

Because Serenity only shows rate of return figures, not his actual portfolio, some have questioned whether his returns are fabricated. Serenity's response is: "The reason I don't disclose the exact amounts is that the amounts are irrelevant." He says he simply wants to prove that users can find pure, valuable information from free posts, and that market returns expressed as percentages are the best way to validate a thesis. He also states he dislikes the traditional KOL style of flaunting money, luxury watches, cars, and private jets.

Opposing paywalls or paid communities is another distinct characteristic of Serenity. Serenity publishes most of his core market research directly on X for anyone to read for free, with no barriers or paid communities. His X subscription costs only $1/month and contains just an Excel sheet. Not subscribing doesn't hinder the understanding of his core viewpoints.

In a world where "everyone flocks for profit," Serenity's behavior of generously sharing his views seemingly for neither fame nor fortune appears abnormally selfless. Consequently, some speculate that Serenity is merely using his influence to manipulate the prices of these low-market-cap stocks, building a position at lows, pumping and dumping, and leaving a "token position" in his account to mislead followers, especially given he only discloses returns, not actual profits.

This feels a bit like "a thief thinks everyone else is a thief." Of course, Serenity has his own explanation.

He believes the stock market is a positive-sum game. His aim is to share key information before institutions "buy in," allowing retail investors to follow the right path and capture profits. He says he feels particularly proud when they find wealth-creation codes without paying over $2,000 for any paid community. He claims he is changing the old model. For example, he said if he hadn't told the IQE story, institutions like AVGO would have quietly bought out IQE, preventing retail investors from capturing any gains.

Which version of the truth is correct? Is Serenity a true visionary who sees through the AI supply chain, or a master player using a "bottleneck narrative" to harvest traders? For now, we don't know. Whether Serenity ultimately becomes a legend or a bubble is something only time will tell.