$80,000 Bitcoin: Recovery is clear, but conviction for a bull run remains lacking

Original Author: Glassnode

Original Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Bitcoin has returned above $80,000, with improvements in ETF inflows, spot demand, and positioning. However, weaker capital inflows and heavy overhead supply near $86,000 keep market conviction below levels seen in previous bull market phases.

Summary

• US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have turned decisively positive again. As Bitcoin recovers from the mid-$60,000 range to the low $80,000s, institutional demand is rekindling.
• Bitcoin's Relative Unrealized Loss peaked at 25% of market cap during the February sell-off, then compressed to 8% after reclaiming $80,000. This supports the view of a shallow bear cycle, assuming the $60,000 level holds.
• The 30-day Net Position Change of Realized Cap has recovered to $2.8 billion per month, indicating improving capital inflows, though still far below the monthly inflows exceeding $10 billion during previous bull market expansions.
• The 30-day Cost Basis sits at $76,900, providing short-term immediate support, while $86,900 from the November-to-February accumulation range remains a key near-term resistance level for the recovery.
• The Coinbase Spot Volume Delta has turned sharply positive over the past two weeks, signaling increasingly aggressive buying activity and strengthening spot market demand.
• Hyperliquid traders have steadily rebuilt long exposure as prices rise, reflecting improved speculative sentiment and increased confidence in further upside continuation.
• Implied volatility continues to compress across all tenors of the curve, led by the front end, while realized volatility trends downward, with the market pricing in a calmer short-term outlook.
• Skew compression indicates diminishing demand for downside hedges, with the options structure around $80,000 becoming more balanced.
• Market maker positioning remains a key driver of short-term dynamics. A large cluster of negative gamma near $82,000 could still amplify price movements if spot re-enters that zone.

Macro Insights

The macro backdrop remains a tug-of-war between slowing economic growth and persistent inflation. Recent US inflation data came in stronger than expected, while the labor market proved more resilient than many anticipated. Consequently, markets have pushed back rate cut expectations, Treasury yields remain elevated, and financial conditions are relatively tight.

Liquidity continues to be a key driver for risk assets. Equity markets grind higher, but the underlying environment remains fragile as markets adjust to the reality of higher-for-longer interest rates. Meanwhile, strength in oil and commodities continues to fuel inflation expectations, especially against a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions.

For digital assets, the picture remains constructive but selective. Despite tightening liquidity conditions and a strong US dollar, Bitcoin has shown resilience, suggesting underlying demand remains intact. However, softer ETF inflows and high real yields imply that a more sustained uptrend may require financial condition easing or a new catalyst to reignite broader risk appetite.

On-Chain Insights

Moving from Fear to Uncertainty

Amid the macro backdrop of sticky inflation, high Treasury yields, and tighter financial conditions, Bitcoin continues to demonstrate relative resilience. This suggests underlying demand remains intact even as the broader risk environment remains unsettled. To assess the current cycle structurally, the Relative Unrealized Loss—which measures the total dollar value of unrealized losses held by all investors as a percentage of market cap—provides a precise cyclical barometer. During the February flash crash, this metric peaked at 25% of market cap. While indicating significant stress, this reading was far below the extreme levels recorded in previous bear cycles. After subsequently reclaiming $80,000, the metric has compressed to around 8%, shifting mainstream sentiment from fear towards uncertainty, rather than outright collapse.

If $60,000 proves to be the cycle low, this would be the shallowest bear market on record—registering fear but falling far short of the widespread washout that historically marks durable cycle bottoms.

Magnitude of Capital Inflows

As sentiment shifts from fear to uncertainty, the key question is whether the current rally is a typical bear market bounce or an early stage of a genuine bullish transition. The most direct measure is net capital inflows, represented by the 30-day Net Position Change of Realized Cap, which tracks the monthly change in total capital stored on-chain. With the recent rally to $82,000, this metric has reached $2.8 billion per month. This positive reading explains the constructive momentum seen in recent weeks.

However, context is crucial: during the early stages of each major leg up in the 2023-2025 bull market, this metric quickly accelerated from around $2 billion per month to over $10 billion. While encouraging, the current reading remains far below that threshold, suggesting the conviction supporting this recovery lacks the strength seen at similar inflection points in past cycles.

Support and Resistance Through the Lens of Cost Basis

Despite a 37% rally from $60,000 to $82,000, capital inflows remain modest and uncertainty persists. The Realized Price metric broken down by holding period offers a granular framework for identifying the most immediate support and resistance levels. This model tracks the average acquisition price of coins segmented by holding period, mapping behavioral anchors of different investor groups onto the price chart.

The current rally's momentum is primarily driven by the accumulation wave of the past 30 days. This cohort's cost basis sits around $76,900, forming the most immediate support floor. Above that, investors who accumulated during the market consolidation phase between November and February have a cost basis concentrated near $86,900. This represents the most likely near-term resistance zone, as these holders approach breakeven and face increasing distribution incentives.

Off-Chain Insights

Rebuilding ETF Demand

US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have turned decidedly positive in recent weeks, with sustained inflows returning as Bitcoin reclaims ground above $80,000. After months of uneven demand and significant outflows in the first quarter, this latest shift indicates that institutional demand is beginning to re-emerge in a more meaningful way.

Importantly, the resurgence in ETF demand has shown persistence rather than being driven by a single allocation spike, suggesting institutions are steadily accumulating as market conditions improve. Inflow intensity has also accelerated alongside price, reinforcing the notion that traditional capital is once again supporting momentum rather than fading the rally.

The current structure shows significant market structure improvement compared to earlier this year. ETF inflows now act as a tailwind rather than a source of sustained selling pressure, removing one of the key headwinds that limited previous recovery attempts. If sustained, continued institutional accumulation could provide Bitcoin with the demand foundation needed to challenge higher overhead supply zones in the coming weeks.

Coinbase Spot Buying Reaccelerates

The Coinbase spot volume delta has turned sharply positive over the past two weeks, with aggressive buyer activity returning as Bitcoin reclaims the low $80,000s. This latest shift contrasts sharply with the persistent selling pressure that characterized most of the first quarter, when negative volume delta consistently reinforced downside momentum.

Importantly, the recent move higher has been accompanied by repeated increases in positive spot buying volume, rather than isolated buying spikes, suggesting consistent demand is beginning to absorb overhead supply. The strengthening of Coinbase activity is also highly correlated with the revival of ETF inflows, indicating that US-based and institutional buyers are re-engaging.

The current structure suggests spot demand is once again becoming a supportive force for price, rather than a source of distribution. Continued strength in Coinbase buyer flow, especially when rising in tandem with ETF inflows, points to improving market conviction and healthier underlying demand conditions for the latest rally.

Hyperliquid Traders Increasingly Bullish

Over the past few weeks, positioning on Hyperliquid has become increasingly skewed towards the long side, with BTC net positioning rising steadily as Bitcoin recovered into the low $80,000s. This shift marks a significant reversal from the persistent bearish bias that dominated most of the first quarter, when the market tumbled into the low $60,000s.

Importantly, the recent increase in long exposure has been gradual rather than a spike driven by single crowded positions, indicating that traders are steadily rebuilding directional bullish exposure as market conditions improve. Net positioning is now near its strongest bullish bias since late 2025, reflecting growing confidence in upside continuation.

The sustained long positioning alongside rising price action points to improving trader sentiment and a more constructive speculative backdrop. However, increasingly crowded long exposure could make the market more sensitive to short-term volatility and liquidation-driven pullbacks.

Implied Volatility Declining

Over the past week, Bitcoin implied volatility has turned lower, with the front month dropping from 39% to 34.6%. Longer tenors also declined in sympathy, with the curve falling by approximately 1 to 2 vol points across all tenors.

This move reflects a broad repricing lower across the term structure, as traders reduce expectations for near-term realized volatility. The decline follows a recent volatility bounce and coincides with more controlled spot action, reinforcing the view that the market is settling back into calmer patterns.

As implied volatility compresses, the cost of options across tenors decreases, particularly at the front end, which is most sensitive to short-term positioning and demand changes.

The current structure reflects reduced expectations for large directional moves ahead, with volatility supply continuing to outpace demand across the curve.

Volatility Risk Premium Remains Positive

While implied volatility continues to compress across all curve tenors, realized volatility has declined even faster. Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility now stands at 30.48%, steadily declining over recent weeks as spot action remains relatively controlled.

Meanwhile, front-month implied volatility remains around 36.4%, still above realized levels, maintaining a positive volatility risk premium. In other words, options continue to price in more volatility ahead than Bitcoin has delivered recently in spot terms.

The spread between implied and realized volatility has also been rebuilding over the past two to three weeks, recovering to near 6 vol points after a brief compression to parity in April. This suggests that despite the overall downward volatility reset, options demand relative to realized volatility remains elevated.

Therefore, while overall volatility continues to soften on both the implied and realized dimensions, the conditions for selling volatility remain favorable.

Skew Compression Indicates Diminishing Demand for Downside Hedges

As volatility expectations continue to reset lower, skew is also normalizing across the curve. This move is most pronounced at the front end, where the 1-week 25-delta skew compressed from around -10% to -4% over the past week. Longer tenors also softened in sympathy, with the 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month tenors all losing approximately 1 to 2 points of put premium.

Notably, this compression occurred against the backdrop of Bitcoin consolidating around the $80,000 range and a less supportive macro environment. The options surface did not show increased demand for downside protection, but rather continued to reprice towards a more balanced structure.

This upward move reflects a steady decline in the premium of put options relative to calls, indicating that demand for downside protection across the curve is gradually waning rather than intensifying.

While skew across all tenors remains in bearish territory, the ongoing compression suggests that hedging demand for the downside is gradually easing rather than accelerating.

Market Maker Gamma Keeps Spot Sensitive Near $82,000

Market maker positioning continues to create a reactive structure around the current price level. The largest concentration of negative gamma is at the $82,000 strike, with an exposure of approximately $2.6 billion, while positive gamma accumulates near $85,000, approaching $1.8 billion.

With spot still below the negative gamma cluster at $82,000, a re-entry into that price zone could trigger reactive market maker hedging flows, reinforcing momentum and amplifying price moves. Higher up, the concentration of positive gamma near $85,000 could potentially dampen volatility.

Flows also reflect the shift in positioning. Over the past 7 days, put buying accounted for 71% of premium flow, reflecting elevated demand for downside protection during the recent consolidation. In the last 24 hours, 58% of flow came from put selling, suggesting some of that hedging is being unwound.

This structure leaves the market increasingly sensitive to amplified hedging flows if spot re-enters the large negative gamma cluster near $82,000.

Conclusion

In summary, Bitcoin's recovery continues to strengthen beneath the surface. Spot-led demand, rekindled ETF inflows, and improved speculative positioning are combining to foster a more constructive market structure. The sharp compression in Relative Unrealized Loss, along with stabilization in key on-chain profitability and liquidity metrics, suggests the February decline is increasingly viewed as a cyclical reset rather than the start of a deeper bear market.

At the same time, the characteristics of this rally are distinctly different from the aggressive expansions seen during the 2023-2025 period. Capital inflows are recovering but remain far below previous breakout thresholds. Volatility compression and calmer derivatives positioning point to a market gradually rebuilding confidence rather than entering a euphoric phase. This makes the current uptrend look more like a structurally supported recovery than a fully confirmed momentum breakout.

As Bitcoin now re-enters the dense overhead supply zone between $82,000 and $87,000, the market is moving into an area where price discovery becomes increasingly important. Sustaining gains above this zone will likely require stronger spot participation and deeper capital rotation to absorb the remaining overhead supply. Until then, the broader structure continues to improve, but conviction appears to be rebuilding rather than fully returning.