The soothsayer predicted the Hantavirus 4 years in advance, is the prediction market's "prophet" among the people?

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010 )

Last night, an old tweet from June 11, 2022, detonated across the public opinion sphere on X platform like a nuclear bomb. The tweet came from a fortune teller claiming to "read the future," who not only predicted that COVID-19 would end in 2023 but also accurately foresaw the recent emergence of the hantavirus, like a prophet.

Suddenly, countless people flocked in, leaving various comments, but the account vanished after just five tweets, like a wild goose flying into the void, adding a layer of urban legend mystery to the whole affair.

Under the lingering uncertainty of the post-pandemic era, discussions about hantavirus quickly spilled over from public health topics into emotional amplifiers on social media. They were swiftly absorbed by the crypto market as a new trading narrative — from meme coins to prediction markets, speculative capital always finds emotional hotspots first.

Amid the resonance of truth-blurred information flows and collective sentiment, the crypto market once again reveals its instinct: quickly converting attention, anxiety, and expectations into tradable products and prices.

Mysterious tweet from 4 years ago links to cruise ship virus that killed 3 recently

The story begins with an account named @soothsayer.

This account, which only posted five tweets, had previously received little attention. Setting aside that "hantavirus prediction" tweet, you might think it was no different from the ordinary accounts on X platform that churn out daily "chicken soup for the soul" or "inspirational quotes."

But as discussions about hantavirus have escalated in recent days, this old tweet has taken on a "cyber-mystical" aura.

In April this year, a cruise ship named "Hondius" departed from Argentina in South America, originally planning to cross the entire Atlantic Ocean to the Canary Islands in Spain. However, en route, a Dutch man suddenly died on board, later confirmed to be due to hantavirus. As of May 6, the death toll has risen to 3, and the number of infections has increased to 8, including tourists from the Netherlands, the UK, Germany, and other countries. Currently, the cruise ship has been temporarily denied docking due to hantavirus, and the WHO is closely monitoring the situation. Notably, about 30 passengers had disembarked from the ship in the two weeks prior without any tracking procedures, scattering across 12 countries.

Therefore, although the WHO has clarified that the virus has not previously shown widespread transmission, it inevitably stirs public anxiety, with many exclaiming, "It reminds me of the fear of being dominated by COVID-19."

It is worth noting that, according to test results from South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases and the Geneva University Hospitals in Switzerland, the virus type in this outbreak has been confirmed as the Andes hantavirus.

Most hantaviruses do not transmit from person to person, but the Andes virus is the sole exception; this transmission typically occurs among close household contacts or healthcare workers. Additionally, hantaviruses mainly infect humans through "rodent-borne" routes, with three primary transmission methods: respiratory infection, via inhalation of aerosols contaminated by rodent excrement; contact infection, through direct contact of broken skin or mucous membranes with virus-carrying rodent excreta; and digestive tract infection, by consuming food contaminated with rodent excreta.

As for whether the virus will spread to China, a concern for many,reliable sources indicate that in China, the disease caused by hantavirus is known as "epidemic hemorrhagic fever." China has achieved significant results in preventing and treating this virus and disease, with no current risk of large-scale outbreaks. The Chinese Embassy in Cape Verde also previously issued a notice confirming that there are no Chinese citizens on the ship.

Looking back at the soothsayer's tweet, not only did it directly mention "Hantavirus," but it was also posted four years ago, making it undeniably newsworthy.

Hantavirus in Crypto: Meme Coins and Prediction Markets

Following the emergence of hantavirus, the crypto market also shook, with meme coins and prediction markets quickly starting their performances.

A community member unearthed a meme coin called HANTA (Hantavirus) (2tXpgu2DLTsPUf9zFmuZmA4xrYxXKBTpVq9wAM7hzs9y), created about a year ago and officially launched externally on May 4. Its market cap currently stands at approximately $12 million, making it a veritable "OG play."

Additionally, in the prediction market space, both Polymarket and Predict.fun have listed hantavirus-related betting events.

On Polymarket, the probability for the "2026 Hantavirus Pandemic" event is currently around 10%, having previously risen to nearly 35%. The betting volume is currently about $2.27 million. Its resolution criteria are: "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the World Health Organization (WHO), in an official public announcement between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, explicitly characterizes hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or an outbreak associated with hantavirus as a 'pandemic.' Otherwise, the market will resolve to 'No.' Explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press conferences, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a 'pandemic.' A mere declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) does not meet the criteria unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary basis for resolving this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also serve as a basis."

On the Predict.fun platform, the identically named betting event shows a probability of 11%, slightly higher than Polymarket's data. The betting capital pool is smaller, at around $4,400. Its resolution rules are similar to Polymarket's, also relying on public statements from the WHO.

For many, betting real money on the future is inherently addictive. The growing popularity of prediction markets essentially stems from turning human anxiety, curiosity, and desire about the unknown directly into tradeable commodities.

At the article's end, let's return our focus to X platform. It is still littered with numerous old posts about "hantavirus," some from 2020, others dating back as far as 2012. Some people dig up fragments and call them "prophetic predictions," others piece together blurry screenshots into a full story, and some firmly believe everything was pre-written long ago.

Truth doesn't matter; what's truly captivating is how the internet can blend coincidence, fear, emotion, and imagination into something between reality and urban legend, making you unable to resist clicking for a look.

As the soothsayer @soothsayer left behind: "Today we laugh, tomorrow we weep."