BitMart Research Weekly Highlights: Macro Policy, AI Industry Trends, and a Panoramic Analysis of the Crypto Ecosystem
- Core Thesis: The AI bubble in U.S. stocks is in the middle-to-late stages but far from over. The Federal Reserve's policy may shift towards a dovish stance. The cryptocurrency market is following the U.S. stock rebound, with derivatives data suggesting bullishness. However, a broad altcoin bull market remains challenging, while structural opportunities exist in RWA and prediction markets.
- Key Elements:
- The value chain of the AI industry in U.S. stocks is rotating from GPUs to power infrastructure, with optical communication (1.6T to 12.8T) being a niche opportunity. The bubble hasn't reached its final stage as small and mid-cap AI companies have not experienced widespread gains.
- Federal Reserve candidate Kevin Warsh advocates using "trimmed mean" inflation measures, which could underestimate actual inflation to support rate cuts; he also tends to favor shrinking the balance sheet and suggests reducing forward guidance.
- Iran and the U.S. have significant differences on Middle East issues (nuclear facilities vs. security guarantees), and the situation is expected to continue consuming resources in a pattern of "sporadic conflict."
- Crypto spot ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $846 million last week, with continued institutional buying. MicroStrategy increased its holdings by over 3,000 BTC, and an entity suspected to be related to BlackRock plans to increase its ETH holdings to 5% of the circulating supply.
- Derivatives data shows: open interest hit a new low on the way up, funding rates remain persistently negative, and put option premiums have declined, indicating further upside potential for the market.
- The DeFi ecosystem has been severely impacted by black swan events, making it difficult for token prices to recover in the short term. A comprehensive altcoin bull market is challenging, with the upside primarily driven by BTC.
1. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets
1. US Stock Market Performance and the AI Industry Chain
Market Overview: The S&P 500 is oscillating and consolidating at historical highs. The current rally in US stocks is almost entirely supported by the AI industry chain. Other sectors, such as retail, are actually facing earnings pressure and correction risks. In the low-volatility environment where the VIX remains around 20, algorithmic trading and hedge funds are leaning towards buying.
Evolution and Rotation of the AI Industry Chain: Value capture in the AI industry is continuously rotating as development "bottlenecks" shift — from early-stage GPUs to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and optical module demand, and now to the power infrastructure that the market is beginning to price in (as training and inference require massive amounts of electricity). Looking ahead, the optical communication sector (with transmission rates evolving from 800G to 1.6T and even 3.2T/12.8T) will give rise to investment opportunities in niche areas.
Judgment on the AI Bubble Phase: The AI frenzy in the US stock market is currently in the middle-to-late stage of a bubble but is far from its end. The reason is that currently, only a few sectors like data centers have truly realized gains. Some smaller and medium-sized AI companies with positive revenue, as well as traditional data center-related stocks, have not yet experienced a broad rally or surge. The market has not yet entered a phase of widespread, irrational frenzy.
2. Federal Reserve Policy and Personnel Developments (Kevin Warsh Hearing)
Potential Adjustment to the Inflation Framework: Fed Chair candidate Kevin Warsh has proposed changing the inflation assessment framework, arguing that the current core PCE indicator is insufficient and favoring the adoption of a trimmed mean. However, in an environment where inflation distribution is right-skewed (with a long tail on the inflation side), this calculation method would exclude high-rising data points, thereby significantly underestimating actual inflation levels. This might be an attempt to find data-based justification for subsequent rate cuts.
Policy Tools and Stance on Balance Sheet Reduction: Kevin Warsh believes interest rates are the most critical policy tool and that expanding the balance sheet only pushes up asset prices. He advocates for a smaller balance sheet in the future, implying a policy approach of "exchanging rate cuts for balance sheet reduction." However, whether this can be implemented in the short term still depends on the trajectory of inflation and oil price data.
Communication Mechanism and Independence: Kevin Warsh tends to favor reducing forward guidance and lowering the Fed's transparency. His hearing performance indicates a high degree of alignment with the Trump camp. Furthermore, he believes the Fed's independence is limited to monetary policy. In international financial areas, such as providing dollar liquidity through FX swap lines, coordination with the government is necessary. This implies the White House may have more policy options and political leverage to intervene in the dollar liquidity of other countries in the future.
3. Geopolitics and Commodities
Middle East Situation: The US-Iran relationship and the Israeli-Palestinian issue have evolved into an "economic war of attrition and endurance test." Iran has proposed a three-step plan: "first, ensure its own security; second, discuss the management of the Strait of Hormuz; finally, address the nuclear issue." This is completely opposite to the US's demand to "prioritize resolving the nuclear facilities issue," indicating significant differences between the two sides. It is highly likely that the situation will continue to slowly and steadily deplete with intermittent conflicts and pauses.
2. Crypto Market Trends and Ecosystem
1. Market Data and Price Action
Following the US Stock Recovery, Spot Side Shows Strength: Crypto has recently rebounded in tandem with US stocks. Spot CVD data shows sustained active buying, with bids stronger than asks. Although overall trading volume is relatively low, this is actually a positive signal in the early stages of a rally.
Derivatives Data Point to Bullishness: Open Interest has hit new highs since the start of this downtrend. Simultaneously, the funding rate remains negative, with short positions paying fees to long positions, indicating that bearish sentiment is still strong. In the options market, the premium for put options continues to decline. Overall, the data structure suggests there is still room for an upside move. We need to watch for a price breakout to amplify the trading volume.
ETF and Institutional Buying: Although net inflows into spot ETFs last week were lower than the previous period, they remained positive at approximately $846 million. MicroStrategy conducted its routine purchase of over 3,000 Bitcoins. Another major institution, suspected to be related to BlackRock, bought over 100,000 Ethereum last week. It has also submitted a plan to the SEC aiming to continuously increase its holdings to 5% of the total circulating supply of Ethereum. This buying spree is expected to continue for about six months.
2. Ecosystem Sectors and Future Investment Opportunities
DeFi Ecosystem Suffers Setback: The DeFi ecosystem has been hit hard recently due to black swan events like project hacks. Even if institutions attempt to fill the funding gap in the short term, it will be difficult for this sector to see strong token price performance this year.
Outlook for Sector Opportunities: From a macro perspective, the likelihood of a full-blown Altcoin Season is quite low. The current upward trend is primarily driven by Bitcoin's own rise. We need to observe how Bitcoin behaves after it stabilizes above $80,000 before making a judgment. In specific sub-sectors, there may be structural opportunities in RWA (Real World Assets) and Prediction Markets.
This article is a market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment involves high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk management before trading.
