BIT Research: Multiple Signals Simultaneously Turn Bullish – Has Bitcoin’s Repair Rally Already Begun?

Previous reports in the past two issues had suggested that the bear market phase for Bitcoin might be nearing its end. Currently, as the price reclaims key technical levels, multiple indicators such as the trend model, the 21-week moving average, and on-chain capital flows are forming a confluence, gradually increasing market confidence in this assessment. Meanwhile, the $73,000 level has remained a significant dividing line since March 2024 and is a critical threshold for confirming whether this trend has truly reversed.

From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin has returned above the 21-week moving average, an indicator that holds key significance in the framework for distinguishing bull and bear markets. Additionally, the monthly RSI and weekly stochastic oscillator are both within ranges historically associated with bottoming zones, further reinforcing the judgment that the market is transitioning from a cyclical bottom to a recovery phase. Although short-term fluctuations may still be influenced by macroeconomic variables, against the backdrop of gradual technical improvement, Bitcoin's trajectory is beginning to exhibit structural characteristics of a shift from a "rebound" to a "trend recovery."

Technical Signal Confluence: Key Moving Average and Trend Model Point to Recovery Phase

Currently, Bitcoin's price has reclaimed the 21-week moving average. Historically, this signal has been viewed as an important confirmation condition for entering a new upward cycle. If the weekly close can stabilize above this level, the market is likely to transition from a consolidation and recovery phase to a trending uptrend.

Historical backtesting shows that the 21-week moving average not only effectively identifies trend reversals but also helped investors avoid significant drawdowns during the 2021/2022 bear market. In the current cycle, if the price confirms support within the $78,000 – $79,000 range, this indicator may trigger an entry signal once again.

At the same time, the trend model has turned bullish. Given Bitcoin's strong trend-following and high-volatility characteristics, and after several previous false signals, this trend exhibits stronger conditions for continuation. The simultaneous strengthening of multiple technical indicators across different timeframes makes the current market environment more closely resemble historical key phases of bottoming and recovery.

Capital Flow Recovery Accelerates: Multi-Channel Inflows Support Market Structure Improvement

As technical factors strengthen, changes in capital flows are further reinforcing this trend. Since April, combined inflows from stablecoins, Bitcoin ETFs, futures leverage, and Strategy purchases have amounted to approximately $18.7 billion, pushing total capital inflows to their highest level since July 2025.

On-chain data also shows that after experiencing outflows of roughly $25 billion, the market's capital flow situation has begun to recover, with the pace of recovery noticeably faster than in the 2022 cycle. This suggests that the market structure is rebalancing more quickly following this adjustment period.

Notably, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to raise funds and purchase Bitcoin through its STRC instrument. So far this year, its cumulative fundraising scale has reached approximately $11 billion, providing a stable source of buying support for the market. As long as the STRC spread remains within a reasonable range, this financing mechanism can continue to operate and convert into incremental demand. Capital inflows are no longer reliant on a single channel but are improving synchronously across multiple dimensions. This reduces the probability of another significant Bitcoin price decline and also lays the foundation for a subsequent push toward the $88,000 target range.

Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a critical phase transitioning from "technical repair" to "capital-driven recovery." Multiple indicators, including the trend model, the 21-week moving average, RSI, and on-chain capital flows, are forming a confluence. Historically, such signals often correspond to windows where a market moves from a periodic rebound toward a trending recovery. Concurrently, the improvement in capital flows is accelerating and coming from more diverse sources, making the market structure more robust compared to previous cycles.

However, macroeconomic variables may still cause periodic disruptions. For instance, uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy path or changes in the STRC spread could influence short-term momentum. Bitcoin is unlikely to experience a unilateral rapid rally; instead, it is more probable to grind higher amidst volatility. But based on the current combination of technical and capital flow factors, the market direction has become clearer than before, and a trend recovery is gradually unfolding.

Some of the above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of individual circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.