Fu Peng's 2026 Hong Kong Speech: Why Did I Join the Crypto Industry?

Speaker: Fu Peng, Chief Economist of Sinohope Group

Compiled by: Eric, Foresight News

On April 23, Beijing time, at the Hong Kong Web3 Festival held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, Fu Peng, the newly appointed Chief Economist of Sinohope Group and a well-known domestic macroeconomist, delivered his first public speech of 2026. In this speech, Fu Peng publicly elaborated for the first time his understanding of crypto assets and his interpretation of their position within the current macroeconomic environment.

The author has compiled the full content of Fu Peng's speech, with some edits and deletions.

Many people have been frantically asking me these past few days why I have gotten so close to this crypto circle, this crypto asset circle. Actually, this connection started around 2022, so it's been about four years now.

Even when I was in traditional finance, I was closely following and tracking the movements of the entire crypto asset market. Of course, today I'm here giving this speech for a simple reason. I'm just going to tell you a story from history because, for me, I was a major beneficiary of the last era's dividends. So you might think my title is 'economist,' but I'm not actually a scholar. My core experience over the past 25 years, what we were really doing, was what you understand as a traditional Hedge Fund.

You're probably wondering, why are these traditional capitals, these people or funds from traditional finance, starting to pay attention to it (crypto assets)?

What I've been saying over the past year or so is that the future is definitely 'FICC+C'—meaning major asset allocation will include crypto assets. Many people want to know why, so I'm taking this opportunity to briefly share my thoughts. Once you grasp this sharing, you'll probably have the answers in your mind about what the market is like, how asset prices will move, and so on. So today, I'm going to help you pierce through that layer of window paper.

We need to rewind the timeline to the origin of FICC as a major asset class. When was that? Around the late 1970s to early 1980s. In fact, over the past decade, everyone here can already clearly perceive that the world's overall framework and structure are undergoing tremendous changes. This kind of change is most similar to the period in post-WWII history that was the 1970s and 80s.

For example, just now I saw Chairman Xiao Feng also mentioned artificial intelligence, and other speakers have touched on AI integration. As an important technological advancement and productivity driver, each wave of technological progress and productivity improvement reshapes all industries. This includes all business formats, and it inevitably includes the financial sector. Our finance is not immutable; absolutely not.

Look at the finance portrayed in movies or TV shows like "The Big Short" or "The Wolf of Wall Street"—people in jackets on the trading floor shouting orders, or you go to the NYSE, and many might still think finance is about people on the floor quoting and executing trades? Of course, many journalists still like to use that floor trading backdrop for news reports.

If you go to Chicago to see the earliest interest rate derivatives market, or to the London Metal Exchange (LME), you can still see traces of that history preserved. Yes, that was the most traditional finance, you could say finance before the 1960s-70s. People in jackets quoting prices, completing transfer and payment transactions through teletypewriters and punch card machines. For the Chinese-speaking community or most Chinese people, the impression of trading might be in a stock hall, watching the so-called ticker tape, seeing prices, filling out slips, handing them to the counter, then a young lady using a dedicated phone line to call the exchange to complete the order execution.

Not all finance or trading stayed in that era. The biggest changes in finance are also bound to happen alongside technological progress.

So in the last technological advancement cycle, the productivity represented by semiconductors, computers, personal computers, DOS systems, Windows systems, etc.—that is, technological progress—reconstructed our financial industry's new landscape in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The major asset trading we are familiar with today, simply put, is a fusion of financial assets like interest rates, commodities, foreign exchange, stocks, etc.

And the birth of FICC was in the early 1980s. Around the 1970s, pricing for financial derivatives, like options pricing, the Black-Scholes model, etc.—you probably studied these in school. But think about it: without the large-scale application and popularization of computers, if it took ten, twenty, or even thirty minutes to calculate the price quote for a financial derivative or financial asset, how could I possibly complete a quote, trade, and execution?

Starting in 1985, all professional investors and investment institutions began using Bloomberg terminals. I started using Reuters' Reuters 3000, later Reuters Xtra and then Eikon, around 1997-98, during the Asian financial crisis. So, in other words, the era of computers, semiconductors, information technology, and data gave rise to the later FICC.

We had asset classes, fusion between assets, cross-asset trading, hedge funds, programmatic trading, and well-known entities like Renaissance Technologies' Medallion Fund. Without this productivity progress, finance would have remained stuck in the era many ordinary people imagine, where traders are floor traders in jackets shouting orders.

Wall Street's JP Morgan became the biggest leader in financial derivatives. At that time, JP Morgan hired Cambridge top graduate Blythe Masters. This lady became the architect of the entire financial derivatives market and turned FICC business into the most profitable part for mainstream Wall Street financial institutions. Of course, this was inseparable from the world's turbulence in the 1970s and 80s. Because remember one thing: the origin of technological progress is also the origin of world turbulence.

So, technological progress, at a certain stage, coexists with the turbulence of the world's institutional order. So in the 1970s and 80s, we experienced the Cold War, the Middle East wars, the US dollar oil crisis, the so-called surge in gold prices, and systemic decoupling. However, human civilization always walks a path where opportunities and risks coexist.

While world order was in chaos on one side, our computers, semiconductors, and information technology were rising. I used to joke that during that time, there was a strange investment portfolio: simultaneously investing in "humanity has a future" and "humanity has no future."

Think about it—not going back ten years, that's a bit long—but roughly from around 2019 onwards, look at your holdings. Haven't you held onto both "humanity has a future" and "humanity has no future" assets until today? Of course, by today, when we all start to realize that artificial intelligence, data, and computing power will become the most important productive forces of the next era, the entire game is actually already more than half over.

And the entire first half is what everyone recognizes as the traditional crypto circle. Why am I talking about this? Because remember, nothing is immutable. Everything is constantly being reconstructed and reborn during its development process.

So I said back then, the moment I enter this circle might very well leave an important mark in history. Just like when Blythe Masters entered JP Morgan, would it become an important node?

(This node) is declaring the end of the early development stage of the past 10 to 15 years and the arrival of a new development stage. In these two stages, investors, participants, market systems, and game rules will all undergo tremendous changes. Or rather, they are already undergoing tremendous changes. Just now when I was interviewed by a journalist, I said that many of the thought patterns you were familiar with over the past 15 years—the paradigms you've gotten used to over the past 10-15 years—might undergo massive changes. Of course, if you have been in traditional finance long enough, you actually know exactly what's about to happen. It's like China back in the day; we had exchanges set up by provincial financial offices, we had massive financial assets. But as compliance gradually strengthened later, to put it simply, the fittest would survive.

Then financial derivatives would gradually be incorporated into financial institutions' asset portfolios. Our entire crypto asset industry is actually going through the same process. Like now, everyone might take commodities for granted, but you need to know that before the 1980s, financial derivatives for commodities were not widespread; most people couldn't truly trade them.

Assets like copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, palm oil, etc., which seem commonplace now, didn't exist back then. Now you might think trading foreign exchange is convenient, but back then you'd find that didn't exist either. Now we can easily trade government bonds, trade interest rate futures; that didn't exist back then either. Actually, doesn't this feeling resemble 2009, when we started having stock index futures, options, and derivative products?

If you have that feeling, then you understand this is the same point in time. So back then, technological progress drove the transformation and fusion of traditional finance into FICC. Today, it's the same logic. Data, computing power, artificial intelligence, plus the underlying technology—this underlying technology is actually encryption technology or blockchain technology—with technology at its core, is reconstructing finance. Our finance is also changing.

So we've been watching in the past, but honestly, we wouldn't participate, absolutely not. So I joked that maybe in the early days, you really needed to talk about belief, talk about so-called fundamentalism, right? People needed to have faith in this thing. But as real capital, they wouldn't excessively participate in this kind of faith-based trading in the early stages.

Only when (crypto assets) gradually grow up and achieve certainty will they be incorporated into the asset management framework. For example, if we used to trade something like red beans or mung beans, do you think large financial institutions would consider them as an asset allocation? Impossible. But today we can turn copper into futures and options, we can make it into ETFs, we can incorporate it into the entire investment portfolio.

This kind of transformation is exactly the scenario happening in the entire crypto circle's ecosystem. 2022 was the first time I truly started having intersections with some of the big names in this circle. The connection began in 2021. At that time, I said something in an interview. Bitcoin was around $70,000 then, but when the journalist asked me, I'm a straightforward person, I said it's simple: according to our framework and path, we really can't understand what this asset is.

Because all the belief-based things you're talking about, we don't recognize. We have our own way of explaining it, for example, about its value preservation function; we would interpret it using our framework and language.

(In the interview, I indicated) I thought we didn't have the time yet, or hadn't reached the time to介入 this asset. But I said we are indeed observing, but still not very clear about the narrative you're telling. My understanding and model for it (crypto assets) weren't fully formed yet. But I said I had a hunch because the US CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) had already clearly defined it as a commodity, a tradable financial asset. For me, I could simply and completely use this definition to understand one of its attributes.

I said one sentence at the time: I'll make a blind guess. If in 2022, with a significant tightening of liquidity, then in our traditional asset circle, I can easily see those valuation assets experiencing a large-scale valuation compression. I said if my understanding of it is correct, it will accompany the valuation compression of those valuation assets and bring about the same valuation compression行情. I said I'll make a blind guess (Bitcoin would) fall by half. This is why later, when it fell to $20,000 at the end of 2022, many people from the crypto circle came to me because they suddenly realized if the times had changed.

Of course, actually, after exchanges over the past few years, many of the real big names in the crypto circle, as I see them, are just like the big names in traditional finance back in the day. In the early days, everyone was relatively rough. Think about it, including China's, for example, the big shots in commodity futures trading. In the early years, who wasn't rough? Who didn't need to take a gamble, turning a bicycle into a motorcycle? But those who can truly achieve the future are the ones who, when it's time to turn—not transform, but转折—quickly absorb and complete that转折.

And those who still follow the old ways will basically be gradually淘汰掉 by the era that once made them. From my personal observation, 2025 and 2026 might be what we call the time point for crypto assets.

You can tell me what you think it (crypto assets) is, and I will also absorb and integrate from a genuine traditional finance perspective to understand this matter again. I will also tell you how I understand this type of asset using our path logic. After a few years of包容融合, a new system has actually formed.

And these past few years, including the end of last year. Actually, from our perspective, it's the valuation squeeze brought by a new round of liquidity tightening. And the crypto asset circle experienced the same story again. What does that indicate? It indicates the path we are taking is correct. This包容融合 will ultimately form an inseparable whole, just like the traditional stock traders of the 70s and 80s, like in "The Wolf of Wall Street," and those later doing major asset trading.

So the future is definitely 'FICC+C,' with not much distinction between you and me. Of course, for us, another most important point on the other end is compliance. So 2025 is actually an important元年. Whether it's the stablecoin bill or the确定性 bills we see for digital assets or crypto assets, two important bills have actually already told us the answer for this market. At this point, it's simple. In the future, you will see Wall Street financial institutions, former traditional financial institutions, quickly entering this market. Just like diversified foreign exchange reserves, it will be incorporated like diversified asset reserves.

(Crypto assets) will transform from a single reserve asset or trading asset into a diversified trading asset. Back then, I could add commodities, add foreign exchange, add interest rates. Today, I can add crypto assets. But remember one thing: when it融合, the market logic will宣告 the arrival of a new era, no longer the habits of the old era. Of course, we say that after the 1980s, the proportion of retail participation in the US stock market also gradually declined. That is, the proportion of散户 directly participating in the market also gradually declined, while the proportion of financial institutions participating gradually increased. This will also happen in any market.

Is now the必经的阶段 from early stage to maturity? My answer is yes. Stablecoins have carved out the payment function of blockchain technology. So you can think about what Bitcoin really is. Just now a journalist asked me if it's a digital gold. I said this statement is actually somewhat controversial. Why?

Because it depends on the individual. For me, for example, I might immediately get what you're trying to say. But if you say this to an ordinary investor, their first reaction in their mind is gold. So what exactly is gold? We can only say the definition is a tradable commodity asset with a value preservation function. That's a complete definition. We can say some assets have a value preservation function, but they don't necessarily possess what we call large-scale financialization or tradability.

Let me give a simple example. For instance, my little son's AJ basketball shoes, do they have value? Regarding the understanding of value, many people have a huge偏差. For example, the figurines you buy, do they have value? The Richard Mille watch you buy, does it have value? First of all, if it's a broad sense of value, that's fine. Emotional value is also value, companionship value is also value. But whether it possesses large-scale financialization and tradability is not certain.

Then you say, old-timers, does the wood in your hand have value? Do walnuts have value? Does the Clivia flower have value? Saying it has no value is incorrect because if the definition is a broad sense of value, then saying it has no value is definitely wrong. Saying it has value, if referring to financialization and tradability, is also incorrect because it doesn't have that. So a complete definition here, a complete definition for any asset, is very important.

The standard definition for crypto assets is now very clear to you. The development path of Western society is actually very clear in its core. If the law doesn't prohibit it, you do it first. So it encourages innovation, it encourages exploration. Just like our financial derivatives back in the day. People said, my clients have demand for options, for swaps, but we don't have this market, we don't have this regulation, what to do? Do it first. After doing it, compliance follows, layer by layer of nesting, letting it gradually mature. So the entire Western finance is: financial innovation, then compliance catches up, finally entering maturity.

Crypto assets follow the same logic. Now what you need to judge is, has the financial regulatory catch-up in 2025, has the确定性 answer already emerged? My answer is: Yes. So in the future, you will see the technical application in payments is stablecoins. Then what will Bitcoin become? An asset with a value preservation function that can be financially traded—this is its full meaning. Of course, I know this definition will definitely make the fundamentalists of the last era very unhappy.

But I want to tell you, this is the era. There's no way around it. This is a整套符合逻辑框架的东西. At this point, Wall Street can fully介入. A new chapter is about to begin.

I don't know if today's speech will go down in history. Of course, I hope it will go down in history and provoke some