SUNX Research Weekly Report: Geopolitical Tensions Ease and "Old Money" Rushes In, Deconstructing the Underlying Logic of BTC Stabilizing Above $75,000

I. Macro and Traditional Finance (Macro): Recovery Amid Geopolitical Easing and Inflation Concerns

1. Risk Appetite Rebounds, U.S. Stocks and AI Supply Chain See Oversold Bounce

Recently, there have been signs of substantive easing in Middle East geopolitical conflicts, with the differences at the negotiation table significantly smaller than the market's previous extreme pessimistic expectations. The rapid decline in geopolitical risk premium has directly driven stability in commodity markets, represented by crude oil, and opened up space for valuation recovery of global risk assets. Against this backdrop, coupled with the stability demands of the U.S. election year and expectations for potential easing in macro trade relations, U.S. stocks have experienced a strong oversold rebound. Capital remains highly focused on the upstream AI supply chain and core tech stocks like Oracle.

SUNX Analysis: In the short term, the upward recovery of macro capital remains the path of least resistance. However, it is crucial to remain vigilant as the tail risks of geopolitics are not completely eliminated. Within a wide-ranging volatile zone, traders' margin for error remains extremely low.

2. Intensifying Monetary Policy Divergence: The "Hawkish" Undercurrent of the FOMC

The latest released FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting minutes revealed a dangerous signal: policy divergence within the Fed is widening further compared to the past. In the "last mile" of fighting inflation, the "rate hike" option was explicitly included in internal discussions, indicating a clear hawkish shift in the overall stance. However, from a practical operational path perspective, most Fed officials at this stage still prioritize the fragile balance of a cooling labor market. The market generally prices in a low probability of an actual rate hike occurring this year.

3. The "Gray Rhino" of Inflation: March CPI and Supercore Inflation Transmission

The overall March CPI data showed a clear upward trajectory driven by strong energy prices. Although core CPI was slightly below expectations, indicating that energy-side inflation has not fully permeated into core goods and services, the real hidden danger lies in the long-term price anchor for crude oil. If international oil prices remain consistently high above $80, the high energy costs are likely to gradually transmit to the more sticky "Supercore inflation" within the next 3 to 6 months. This could not only pose a serious upside risk to inflation data in the coming months but also force the Fed to be more conservative in its rate-cutting decisions. Additionally, influenced by base effects from the same period last year, next month's housing rent data is highly likely to show an abnormal spike.

II. Crypto Market Microstructure (Crypto): BTC Stabilizes Above $75K and Bullish Resonance in Derivatives

1. BTC Stabilizes Above $75K, Altcoins Face Liquidity Drain

In the recent rebound cycle, BTC has demonstrated an exceptionally strong dominant posture. According to the latest market data, the Bitcoin price has climbed robustly and stabilized around $75,700. Previous market disagreements about the bottom are rapidly dissipating, with $75,000 transforming from a previous resistance level into a strong short-term support zone. This level was quickly breached due to previous short liquidations, resulting in sufficient turnover of holdings, making it highly significant as a reference point.

In stark contrast, the current altcoin (Altcoins) market overall lacks underlying fundamental support. The price action exhibits more characteristics of "strong whale dominance," with major capital primarily relying on Futures liquidations and funding rate arbitrage to generate PnL, placing retail traders at an absolute disadvantage in such games.

2. Derivatives Trading Data: Smart Money Entry and Crowded Short Sentiment

● Spot Active Buying Returns: Although overall spot trading volume across the network hasn't exploded, the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta), representing active buying willingness, remains consistently high. This clearly indicates that some "Smart Money" is actively accumulating positions, absorbing previous selling pressure.

● Futures and Options Diverge: Catalyzed by external factors like geopolitics, Futures market trading activity has increased significantly, yet the overall funding rate remains negative. This extremely crowded structure of "spot buying, Futures shorting" is highly prone to triggering intense technical short squeezes if the spot price breaks further.

● Strong Bullish Sentiment in Options Market: The total notional trading volume for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF options surpassed $1.15 billion, with a put/call ratio as high as 2.27. The total notional open interest reached $22.63 billion, with a put/call ratio of 1.52. The overall high put/call ratios and an implied volatility of 44.74% show extremely strong bullish sentiment among capital for the future market.

III. ETF Frenzy and Wall Street Positioning: Over $1 Billion Returns and Track Expansion

The influx of ETF capital from traditional financial institutions is the absolute lifeblood supporting BTC's current stabilization above $75K. This week, the crypto spot ETF market delivered a remarkable report card.

1. Net Inflow Data: BlackRock Leads, Ethereum Regains Favor

● U.S. Bitcoin ETFs: Recorded an astonishing total net inflow of $816 million this week, with total assets under management (AUM) nearing the $94.92 billion milestone. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT remains the absolute capital magnet, with net inflows reaching $612 million.

● U.S. Ethereum ETFs: Emerged from previous sluggishness, securing $187 million in net inflows (primarily driven by $168 million contributed by BlackRock's ETHA).

2. "Old Money" Entry and Deep Extension of Giant Ecosystems

● Baby Boomers Awakening: According to Bloomberg analysts, U.S. "Baby Boomer" investors quietly funneled approximately $500 million into Bitcoin spot ETFs amid macro pressures. This contrarian accumulation signifies deep recognition of BTC's long-term allocation value by traditional capital.

● Morgan Stanley's Entry and "Nighttime" ETF: Morgan Stanley's newly launched Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) achieved the best first-day trading performance among all the bank's ETF products. Concurrently, a Bitcoin "nighttime strategy" ETF (NGHT) was also launched, further enriching institutional trading tools.

3. Horizontal Track Expansion: Dense Filings for Altcoin ETFs

Wall Street's ambition is no longer confined to BTC and ETH:

● Bitwise Updates Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP): Bitwise has again updated its filing for the Hyperliquid ETF. The fund's ticker is set as BHYP, with a management fee of 0.67% (67 basis points). Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that such actions typically indicate the product will launch imminently.

● Canary Capital Tests Waters with PEPE ETF: Asset management firm Canary Capital formally submitted an S-1 registration statement to the U.S. SEC for the Canary PEPE ETF. This marks Wall Street's further exploration of the possibility for meme coins to enter the mainstream institutional investment market.

IV. SUNX Trading Strategy Guidance

Overall, the resilience of the macro economy and the accelerated return of ETF capital are building a solid bottom support for the Crypto market. With the consensus of BTC's strong climb to around $75,700, the short-term downside correction space has been significantly limited.

For SUNX's high-net-worth users and Futures traders, this week's core strategy should be "steady defense, focus on core assets":

1. Asset Focus: Given the liquidity drought and severe volatility in the altcoin market, it is recommended to concentrate core positions towards BTC and ETH to avoid becoming a casualty of major capital's funding rate arbitrage in the existing capital game.

2. DCA on the Left, Trend Following on the Right: Against the backdrop of high spot CVD and negative funding rates, the market could brew a technical short squeeze at any time. It is recommended to use SUNX's spot grid tool, which boasts excellent depth, to accumulate positions in batches near the $75,000 support level. Simultaneously, closely monitor opportunities for trend-following long positions after breaking through previous historical resistance highs. Rely on SUNX's industry-leading matching engine for fills with minimal slippage, and strictly set stop-loss lines to guard against disruptions from geopolitical black swan events.

3. Embrace Passive Income: In volatile market conditions, if unwilling to bear high volatility risks, idle funds like USDT can be transferred into SUNX's Earn account to obtain steady passive PnL, safely navigating through cycles.

The essence of navigating bull and bear markets lies in the long-term conviction in quality assets. As a centralized platform with 100% Reserve Proof (PoR) and 24/7 rapid customer service response, SUNX is committed to providing you with the safest, most hardcore trading experience. Follow SUNX's official channels to receive the most cutting-edge institutional-grade investment research analysis weekly.