BitMart Research Weekly Highlights: Geopolitics Dominates Pricing, Crypto Volatility Awaits Breakthrough

Macro Market

1. Geopolitics and the Shift in Pricing Logic

The US-Iran conflict and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will be the most critical macro variables over the next 1 to 3 months. The current market pricing logic is gradually shifting from "central bank-led interest rate paths" to "oil price increases driving higher actual inflation."

Currently, the market has not fully priced in more extreme scenarios, such as the US deploying ground troops. If the conflict persists into May or June, the impact of rising oil prices will further transmit to corporate costs, creating a more significant drag on disinflation.

2. Economic Data Breakdown: Employment, PMI, and Inflation

Labor Market:

Although the headline Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data pushed the market towards a more hawkish pricing, the actual labor market feels weaker. Nearly all new jobs came from the private sector, with the healthcare industry contributing the most, driven by aging trends, and foreign immigration also being a significant source of growth. In contrast, most other industries, and even government and financial sector employment, showed contraction.

Relevant Federal Reserve research indicates that, under the combined influence of an aging population and changes in immigration policy, the future growth rate of the US labor supply may approach zero, with the corresponding "breakeven" employment growth potentially falling below 10,000. This suggests the labor market is entering a new structural normal.

PMI and Inflation:

The overall performance of Manufacturing and Services PMI remains decent. The Manufacturing PMI has stayed above the 50 expansion/contraction line for three consecutive months, but its internal employment component has fallen back into contraction territory, indicating a divergence between business activity and hiring demand.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures are accelerating. For instance, the price component within the Services PMI has risen to 70.7, primarily driven by oil prices. The upcoming CPI data this week is particularly crucial. The market will closely watch whether CPI climbs back above 3% and how risk assets handle such an outcome.

Exchange Rates and Treasuries:

The Japanese Yen has depreciated rapidly recently, with USD/JPY approaching the 160 level. Concurrently, Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have risen to multi-decade highs. Against the backdrop of rising oil prices and the possibility of Trump announcing a significant increase in military spending, both the 10-year US Treasury yield and long-term mortgage rates face substantial upward pressure.

3. Macro Outlook and Trading Ideas

The global economy is still in a recovery or soft-landing phase overall. Short-term oil price shocks are not yet sufficient to directly trigger a recession. In the next 2 to 4 weeks, while the situation remains unclear, market volatility could be intense. It is advisable to avoid being whipsawed in the back-and-forth.

Strategically, it's more suitable to position in directions with better risk-reward ratios, such as going long on crude oil and related infrastructure assets, and shorting long-duration US and European government bonds. Meanwhile, previously strong stocks in the upstream AI industrial chain, such as optical communications and memory, can still be held or accumulated on dips. The reason is that the AI industry possesses stronger endogenous growth momentum and is relatively less affected by macroeconomic slowdowns. Overall, the inclination remains to buy risk assets on dips in the second half of the year.

Crypto Market

1. Market Position and Overhead Resistance

Judging by market rhythm, the previous correction cycle for US stocks and the crypto market has most likely ended, and the current trend has largely stabilized. However, Bitcoin has been consolidating within the $65,000 to $75,000 range for two months. On-chain data shows significant overhead supply from both trapped and profitable holders, indicating clear resistance: over 380,000 BTC are held above $75,000, and there is also substantial selling pressure above $80,000. Therefore, a price breakout upward still faces considerable pressure.

2. Trading Volume and Derivatives Metrics

Spot trading volume remains relatively weak, significantly below historical averages. However, the spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) shows signs of improvement, suggesting the market may be gradually entering a reversal phase. Overall contract trading volume hasn't changed much. But in the options market, the Put Skew remains persistently high, indicating the need to stay vigilant for the risk of a false upside breakout in a ranging market, triggering short liquidations, followed by a rapid pullback.

3. Policy and Newsflow Expectations

The market expects that the Senate will review a regulatory clarity bill related to "Clarity" next Monday, with the potential for further progress or even passage by the end of the month. If progress is smooth, this could serve as a relatively clear positive catalyst for the Crypto market in the short term.

This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risks. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and implement strict risk management before trading.