Oscar Awards Preview: Who Are the Big Players in Prediction Markets Betting On?
- Core Viewpoint: Based on data from the crypto prediction market Polymarket, the article analyzes the prediction odds and key address holdings for the main categories of the 2026 Oscars, revealing the market's collective expectations for award outcomes and potential trading opportunities.
- Key Elements:
- Best Picture Prediction: "Fight Again" leads with 76% real-time odds. Trading volume for this event has exceeded $29 million, indicating high market attention.
- Best Director & Best Actress Predictions: Paul Thomas Anderson (91%) and Jessie Buckley (97%) have extremely high odds. The market sees these awards as almost certain, treating them as "sure bets."
- Best Actor is Highly Competitive: Michael B. Jordan (57%) recently overtook the previously leading Timothée Chalamet, showing dynamic shifts in market expectations.
- Address Holdings Analysis: Reveals the profits/losses and strategies of the addresses with the largest holdings in different categories. For example, one address hedged its risk by betting on both top contenders for Best Actor.
- Other Category Odds: The article lists the real-time odds leaders for popular categories like Best Supporting Actor/Actress, Cinematography, and Original Screenplay. "Sinners" leads Best Original Screenplay with a significant 96% odds.
Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026. As the awards night approaches, discussions about "who will win" are rapidly heating up.
Beyond predictions from traditional media, film critics, and fans, crypto prediction markets are also providing their own set of answers. So, in the eyes of prediction market participants, who is most likely to take home the major Oscars awards this year?
Next, Odaily will analyze the latest market data from Polymarket, breaking down the win probabilities for each award category one by one. At the same time, we will analyze the betting positions of the top addresses holding contracts related to these events to identify potential trading opportunities.
Best Picture Award: "One Battle After Another" Leads with 76% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Event: Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner, trading volume exceeding $29 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-picture-winner.
Currently, for the Best Picture award, "One Battle After Another" leads with a real-time probability of 75%, while "Sinners" ranks second with a probability of 20%.
Address Holdings Analysis
Top YES Holder for "One Battle After Another": 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397. This address has a win rate as high as 89.7%, with an average YES purchase price for "One Battle After Another" at 54.8 cents.
Address Holding Only the "One Battle After Another" Single Event: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d. This address bought nearly 10,000 YES contracts 5 days ago at an average price of 74 cents and currently holds only the "One Battle After Another" for Best Picture single event.
Best Actor Award: Michael B. Jordan Leads with 57% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner, trading volume nearly $7 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-winner.
Currently, for the Best Actor award, Michael B. Jordan leads with a real-time probability of 57%, while Timothée Chalamet ranks second with a probability of 34%.
It is worth mentioning that before the 7th of this month, Timothée Chalamet's probability of winning had consistently been in first place, once reaching as high as 80%.
Address Holdings Analysis
Top YES Holder for Michael B. Jordan: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271. This address has a win rate of only 48%, with a historical profit/loss of negative $200,000.
Top NO Holder for Michael B. Jordan: 0xafbacaeeda63f31202759eff7f8126e49adfe61b. This address has a win rate of 53%, with a historical profit/loss of $172,000.
Top YES Holder for Timothée Chalamet: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, which is also the top YES holder for Michael B. Jordan. This indicates the address is betting on either Michael B. Jordan or Timothée Chalamet winning Best Actor.
Top NO Holder for Timothée Chalamet: 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344. This address has a high win rate of 63%, with a historical profit/loss of $2.82 million.
Best Director Award: Paul Thomas Anderson Leads with 91% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Event: Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner, trading volume nearly $5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-director-winner.
Currently, for the Best Director award, Paul Thomas Anderson leads with a real-time probability of 94%. Judging by the probability, this award seems almost certain, possibly a "sure bet" scenario.
Address Holdings Analysis
Top YES Holder for Paul Thomas Anderson: 0x998154d8eb4ba7c4b34b10d76b9742d922d7dec4. This address has a win rate as high as 83.6%, with an average YES purchase price for Paul Thomas Anderson at 93 cents.
Best Actress Award: Jessie Buckley Leads with 97% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner, trading volume exceeding $1.5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actress-winner.
Currently, for the Best Actress award, Jessie Buckley leads with a real-time probability of 97%. Judging by the probability, this award also seems almost certain, possibly a "sure bet" scenario.
Other Popular Awards
Furthermore, awards with relatively high discussion heat include:
1. Best Supporting Actress Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actress-winner). Amy Madigan leads with a real-time probability of 52%; Teyana Taylor ranks second with a probability of 26%; Wunmi Mosaku ranks third with a probability of 21%.
2. Best Supporting Actor Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actor-winner). Sean Penn leads with a real-time probability of 73%; Stellan Skarsgård ranks second with a probability of 19%; Delroy Lindo ranks third with a probability of 7%.
3. Best Cinematography Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-cinematography-winner). "One Battle After Another" leads with a real-time probability of 73%; "Sinners" ranks second with a probability of 20%.
4. Best Original Screenplay Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-original-screenplay-winner). "Sinners" leads with a real-time probability of 96%, possibly a "sure bet" scenario.
