What is Opinion, which has been hotly debated in the market recently?

Summary

Recently, attention on the prediction market sector has continued to heat up. Opinion, as one of the projects garnering significant market interest, attempts to transform people's judgments about real-world events into tradable probability assets through an on-chain protocol. The project proposes the concept of "Multiplayer Internet," aiming to use market mechanisms to allow dispersed viewpoints to form a priceable, verifiable collective consensus on-chain. In terms of product design, Opinion adopts a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB)-based trading structure, combined with on-chain settlement and an AI-assisted oracle mechanism, to build prediction market infrastructure akin to an "on-chain event exchange." The project previously raised approximately $25 million and completed the TGE of its OPN token and commenced trading on March 5, 2026. However, post-launch market performance has been generally cautious. High valuation coupled with airdrop selling pressure has weighed on the token price. Simultaneously, discussions within the community have arisen regarding the airdrop allocation ratio, claiming mechanism, and potential regulatory issues surrounding prediction markets.

1. Project Introduction

What is Opinion doing?

Opinion is a decentralized protocol built around prediction markets. It aims to turn people's judgments about real-world events—such as macroeconomic data trends, policy outcomes, or the direction of major news—into assets that can be traded on-chain. In the traditional internet, opinions are merely expressed: posting, commenting, sharing, with low cost and difficulty in verifying whose judgment is more accurate. Opinion seeks to establish a new mechanism where, when you have a judgment about something, you need to participate in the market with capital; the market price will automatically reflect the collective probability expectation. Price becomes the digital expression of consensus. Officially, this philosophy is termed "Multiplayer Internet." It emphasizes that the internet is not just an information dissemination space but an economic system where multiple participants engage, compete, and price together. Opinions are thus quantified, verified, and ultimately settled by the market.

Technology and Product Structure

From an overall architectural perspective, Opinion can be understood as a three-tier system: the underlying protocol defines how events are created and settled; the liquidity and matching layer handles trade execution and price formation; and the front-end application is the entry point for users to actually participate in prediction trading. Opinion has chosen a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB)-based matching model. Users can place limit orders as they would on a traditional exchange, with buyers and sellers matched via orders, and prices formed by real trading depth. This structure is closer to the market mechanism of centralized exchanges, emphasizing price discovery through multi-party competition rather than relying on algorithmic curves to automatically derive prices. From an information discovery standpoint, the order book model offers finer price granularity and more robust competition, which is more conducive to forming probability prices with reference value. However, it simultaneously places higher demands on liquidity, requiring continuous market-making support and active user participation.

At the event settlement level, Opinion introduces an AI-assisted oracle mechanism to help parse complex real-world information, such as policy texts, macroeconomic data releases, etc. This is not about AI determining outcomes but using technical means to transform unstructured information into clear, verifiable settlement conditions, thereby reducing disputes and ambiguity. Opinion's product approach is not simply replicating traditional prediction markets but attempting to build an infrastructure framework more akin to an "on-chain event exchange": the order book handles real price formation, the protocol layer ensures clear settlement logic, and AI assistance reduces information processing costs.

How do opinions become "price"?

In Opinion's system, an event is not merely put to a vote but is split into tradable "outcome assets." For example, the question "Will next month's released CPI be higher than 3%?" would be split into two outcome tokens: YES (will be higher than 3%) and NO (will not be higher than 3%). Since the event can ultimately have only one outcome, the combined price of these two tokens typically approaches $1.

Assuming the current price of YES is $0.70 and NO is $0.30, it means the market collectively believes the probability of the event occurring is approximately 70%. This price is formed by the collective buying and selling actions of all participants. When more people are willing to pay a higher price for a particular outcome, the market probability rises; conversely, it falls. After the event is announced, the market settles based on the outcome: if CPI is higher than 3%, the YES token settles at $1, and NO becomes worthless; if it is not higher than 3%, the NO token settles at $1, and YES becomes worthless. Therefore, when a user buys YES at $0.70, they are essentially purchasing an asset that could become $1 in the future, with profit or loss depending on the accuracy of their judgment.

This mechanism shares basic logic with prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, but Opinion places greater emphasis on decentralized protocol structure and on-chain settlement, aiming to become reusable infrastructure rather than just a single trading platform. Compared to expression via likes, this mechanism requires judgment to bear cost. When opinions require taking on risk, noise naturally decreases, and price has a better chance of becoming an effective expression of collective cognition.

2. Market Dynamics

Funding and Institutional Backing

Since its inception, Opinion has raised approximately $25 million in total funding, with a financing lineup reflecting strong capital recognition. The 2025 seed round was led by YZi Labs and attracted participation from well-known Web3 investment institutions including Animoca Ventures and Amber Group. YZi Labs' backing provided Opinion with opportunities for close collaboration within the BNB Chain ecosystem and integrated the project into a broader strategic resource network. In early 2026, it secured further support from capital more focused on technology and ecosystem building, such as Jump Crypto and Hack VC, institutions with rich experience in investing and resource integration within DeFi and infrastructure layer projects. This financing lineup not only provides long-term funding support for Opinion's technology development but also helps it establish a relatively solid strategic network within the industry.

Prediction Market Sector Heat: A Continuously Warming Structural Opportunity

Over the past few years, the prediction market sector has seen a significant increase in attention, gradually evolving from a relatively niche activity towards a more serious, application-oriented tool. On one hand, macroeconomic data, central bank policies, etc., have become subjects of interest for traders, driving growth in demand for probabilistic judgment. On the other hand, on-chain prediction markets can transform collective judgment into price signals, an information discovery function valued by many market participants. Protocols like Opinion are precisely attempting to evolve traditionally speculative prediction markets towards a more standardized, infrastructure-layer direction, forming a more open market foundation. Prediction markets are currently in a transitional phase from experimental activities to more mature infrastructure applications.

Airdrop Controversy

Prior to the TGE, market expectations for the scale of Opinion's airdrop were high. As the project had long incentivized user participation in prediction trading and community activities through a points system, some over-the-counter (OTC) markets even began pricing the points. Before the airdrop ratio was clarified, the price of related points in OTC markets once approached $45 per point. When the official announcement revealed the TGE airdrop ratio was approximately 3.5% of the total supply, market expectations adjusted rapidly, and point prices fell to around $6 per point, a drop of over 80%, sparking strong dissatisfaction among community users.

Furthermore, while the total airdrop ratio for OPN is about 23.5%, only about 3.5% was allocated for the initial distribution at TGE, with the remainder scheduled for gradual release in subsequent phases under different conditions. Some community users therefore believe the initial release ratio is too low, creating a gap with the expectations of early participants and contributors. Additionally, the relatively complex points acquisition and distribution mechanism has been perceived by some users as having a high understanding cost. These factors have sparked ongoing discussions before and after the launch, affecting market sentiment to some extent.

TGE Launch and Initial Market Feedback

Opinion's OPN token completed its TGE at 21:00 (Beijing Time) on March 5, 2026, and launched spot trading on multiple exchanges including Binance, Bitget, Gate, and CoinW. With the token officially circulating, the project has transitioned from the months-long phase of points incentives and expectation games into the price discovery phase of the secondary market. According to the tokenomics, the initial circulating supply at TGE was approximately 19.85% of the total supply. This circulation mainly came from community incentives, Binance Launchpool rewards, and some liquidity allocation. Therefore, in the initial launch phase, the overall supply of tradable tokens was relatively limited.

Before the launch, Opinion, relying on the prediction market narrative, Binance Launchpool participation, and a high-valuation funding background, had accumulated significant attention within the community. However, judging from actual market performance, OPN did not form sustained buying support. After starting trading at a fully diluted valuation of approximately $450 million, the token was soon affected by selling from airdrop and Launchpool users, leading to a price decline. Within less than 24 hours of launch, the price had fallen by about 17.8%, with the current FDV around $370 million, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

This trend also reflects the shift in prior market expectations. On one hand, incentive mechanisms like the airdrop and Launchpool released a certain scale of circulating supply at TGE, leading some users to cash out profits after the token launch, creating short-term selling pressure. On the other hand, previous community discussions regarding the alignment between airdrop scale, points incentive mechanisms, and real usage demand have also impacted market confidence to some degree. Under the combined effect of multiple factors, OPN's initial market performance has been generally weak.

3. Team Background

Opinion is built by Opinion Labs, with the team overall presenting a composite structure of traditional finance + blockchain technology. The project's founder and CEO, Forrest Liu, graduated from Columbia University and previously worked in corporate financing and investment at CMB International Capital, possessing experience in private equity and institutional capital markets. On the technical side, co-founding members have experience in quantitative trading and large-scale system development, with public information indicating some core members have held positions at institutions like JPMorgan Chase, McKinsey & Company, and Amazon. However, compared to some leading prediction market projects, Opinion's team has relatively limited public exposure, and the community has also discussed transparency issues. Overall, Opinion's team strength lies in the combination of finance and technology backgrounds, but long-term development still needs further validation through product performance and data growth.

4. Token Information

OPN is the native token of Opinion, with a total supply of 1 billion tokens. According to the officially disclosed tokenomics, approximately 23.5% is allocated for airdrops and community incentives (with about 3.5% released at TGE), 23% to investors, 19.5% to the team and advisors, with the remainder used for ecosystem development, foundation, and marketing purposes. Team and investor allocations typically have lock-up and linear vesting mechanisms to mitigate short-term selling pressure risks.

In terms of design, OPN is the core functional asset of the entire "Multiplayer Internet" ecosystem. It can be used to access premium data and oracle services, such as macroeconomic data analysis, prediction signals, and on-chain analysis tools. As ecosystem applications increase, some data services and analytical tools may require OPN for access. OPN also serves as a credential for ecosystem usage and permissions. For example, in certain applications, holding or using OPN can grant benefits like trading fee discounts, VIP privileges, or advanced features. Additionally, OPN is used for protocol governance, allowing token holders to participate in voting on key parameters, oracle rules, and ecosystem development directions.

Overall, the project aims to bind the token's value to the development of the prediction market ecosystem through various scenarios like data services, platform privileges, and governance rights.

5. Competitive Landscape

Sector Comparison and Competitive Situation

From a sector perspective, prediction markets are not a completely new concept. Over the past few years, various projects with different models have emerged, such as Augur, Polymarket, and Kalshi. These platforms all attempt to transform people's judgments about future events into tradable probability prices through market trading.

However, in terms of positioning, Opinion's approach is slightly different. Platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi are closer to single prediction trading platforms, where users primarily participate in market trading through their front-ends. Opinion emphasizes its role as an infrastructure protocol layer more, hoping that through standardized event tokens and shared liquidity mechanisms, different applications can connect to the same set of prediction market infrastructure. Its goal is not just a prediction trading website but to become the underlying protocol for prediction markets. If this model can be established, theoretically, multiple applications could share the same liquidity and market structure in the future, thereby improving overall market efficiency. However, this also means the project needs to simultaneously drive both protocol ecosystem and trading market growth in its early stages, presenting relatively higher development difficulty.

Market Share

Opinion had accumulated a certain level of trading activity before its token launch. The platform launched on BNB Chain in October 2025. According to Messari research statistics, during the first three weeks from October 24 to November 17, 2025, the platform's average daily notional trading volume was approximately $132.5 million, with cumulative notional trading volume exceeding $3.1 billion. As user participation increased, during the week of November 11 to 17, 2025, Opinion's weekly notional trading volume reached about $1.5 billion, accounting for roughly 40% of the global prediction market trading volume that week, briefly surpassing Polymarket and Kalshi to become the highest-volume prediction market platform for that week.

In terms of actual trading volume, according to DefiLlama data, since launch, the platform's cumulative trading volume has approached $10 billion, with a 30-day trading volume of about $1.2 billion, open interest of approximately $31 million, and TVL of around $29 million. In the current prediction market sector, Polymarket and Kalshi still hold strong brand recognition and user bases, while Opinion, leveraging its points incentive mechanism, has gained a certain market share in a short period. However, these trading activities primarily occur at the platform application layer and are not fully directly reflected in the on-chain data of the OPN token. Therefore, its long-term value still depends on whether prediction market trading demand can sustain growth.

Risks and Challenges

Although prediction markets hold unique value in information discovery and probability pricing, this sector still faces certain uncertainties. Prediction markets often rely on oracles to obtain real-world data; if data sources or settlement rules become disputed, it could affect market credibility, meaning related mechanisms need long-term operation to verify stability. Secondly, Opinion's prices depend on real trading formation; if the number of market participants is insufficient, prices may struggle to fully reflect true probabilities, and trading depth could be impacted. Finally, as prediction markets involve trading outcomes of political, economic, or social events, some countries and regions may view them as gambling or financial derivatives businesses, creating a certain gray area at the policy level. Future changes in regulatory attitudes could also impact the development of the entire sector.

References

1.Opinoin Official website: https://opinion.foundation/

2.Opinoin docs: https://docs.opinion.trade/

3.Opinoin tokenomics: https://medium.com/@info_82635/introducing-opn-the-native-token-of-the-multiplayer-internet-445cf2c575a2 

4.Opinion Prediction Market Thwarts Kalshi and Polymarket With $1.5 Billion Weekly Volume: https://beincrypto.com/opinion-trade-leads-prediction-markets 

5.Opinion Nearly All Users Suffered Losses, Airdrop Value Less Than Platform Fee Income?: https://www.odaily.news/en/post/5209576 

6.Opinoin DefiLlama: https://defillama.com/protocol/opinion