Opinion Nearly All Users Suffered Losses, Airdrop Value Less Than Platform Fee Income?
- Core Viewpoint: The prediction market project Opinion, due to repeated delays in its TGE (Token Generation Event) and the announced airdrop token unlock ratio being far below market expectations, has led to a sharp drop in the OTC price of its points, causing significant losses for early participants, severely damaging community trust, and resulting in a sharp decline in platform data.
- Key Elements:
- Once Highly Anticipated by the Market: The project raised over $25 million, with support from top-tier VCs and the Binance ecosystem, and was considered one of the most anticipated airdrops for 2026, with its OTC points price once reaching as high as $45.
- Multiple TGE Delays: The TGE, originally scheduled before the Lunar New Year, was postponed due to a market correction, causing the points price to drop from $45 to $20 and accumulating negative sentiment within the community.
- Airdrop Allocation Sparks Controversy: The tokenomics reveal that early users will only unlock 3.5% of the total airdrop at TGE, while the marketing portion unlocks a much higher 7.7%, far exceeding user allocations.
- Price Severely Misaligned with Expectations: Following the announcement of the allocation plan, the points price plummeted to $6. Some users who invested $200,000 received airdrop tokens worth only about $1,000, creating a "rug pull" situation.
- Significant Decline in Platform Data: The trust crisis has led to reduced user activity, with the platform's TVL plummeting from approximately $150 million to $36 million, and trading volume dropping from $150 million to around $15 million.
Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)
Repeated Delays in TGE Lead to Continuous Decline in OTC Point Prices
Secured Another $20 Million Funding in February This Year, Opinion Was Once Considered the Most Anticipated Airdrop of 2026
The rising narrative around prediction markets garnered significant attention for Opinion even before its TGE. Coupled with endorsements from top-tier VCs and deep integration with the Binance ecosystem, the market once viewed it as one of the most anticipated airdrop projects of 2026.
In terms of funding, Opinion has completed two rounds, raising over $25 million in total. In March 2024, the project was selected for the Yzi Labs Season 7 MVB Accelerator Program, becoming one of 13 early-stage projects. In March 2025, Opinion completed a $5 million seed round led by Yzi Labs, with participation from institutions including Echo, Animoca Ventures, Manifold Trading, and Amber Group. By February 2026, Opinion announced another $20 million Pre-Series A funding round, co-led by Hack VC and Jump Crypto, with participation from Primitive Ventures, Decasonic, Continue Fund, and others.
Receiving continuous support from multiple leading institutions fueled higher market expectations for its airdrop scale and potential valuation.
TGE Originally Scheduled Before Chinese New Year, Repeatedly Postponed Due to Market Conditions
In December 2025, Opinion founder Forrest stated in the official Discord that the project's TGE was expected to occur before the Chinese New Year. This statement quickly ignited community sentiment, with many users starting to "work overtime" to farm points and frequently participate in various prediction events to boost trading volume. As point competition intensified, some users' farming costs even exceeded $20 per point, all to accumulate more points before the TGE and secure the first "big airdrop" of 2026.
Opinion founder previously indicated TGE would happen before Chinese New Year
However, entering February, the overall crypto market experienced a significant correction, and Opinion's TGE timeline became uncertain. The TGE, originally anticipated before the Lunar New Year, saw no news, leading to cooling market expectations for the points. Although Binance launched Opinion-related Binance Wallet Booster and Alpha airdrop activities on February 4th, the official team still did not announce a clear TGE schedule. As expectations gradually cooled, the OTC price for Opinion points also dropped from a high of around $45 per point to $20 per point.
As the TGE was repeatedly delayed, community sentiment gradually turned negative. Some users began questioning the project's progress in community groups. However, in the official Discord, members expressing clear negative views were often quickly removed. Some dissatisfied users even went to communities of other prediction market projects, such as predict.fun, to continue criticizing Opinion's various issues.
Opinion community members venting in other prediction market project communities
Repeated TGE delays, continuous point dilution, and arbitrary member removal in the official community led to accumulating dissatisfaction within the Opinion community. Points kept increasing, transaction fees kept being paid, but answers regarding when the TGE would happen and the final token value became increasingly elusive.
Airdrop Allocation Sparks Controversy: Only 3.5% of Airdrop Tokens Unlocked at TGE, While Marketing Gets 7.7%
After Tokenomics Revealed, Point Price Plunged to $6
On the evening of March 2nd, the Opinion Foundation officially announced the tokenomics of its native token OPN. The total supply of OPN is 1 billion, with the airdrop accounting for 23.5% (235 million tokens). At first glance, this proportion is not considered low among current crypto projects.
However, what truly sparked controversy was the actual unlock ratio at TGE. Of the total airdrop allocation, only 3.5% (35 million tokens) will be released on the TGE day, with the remainder unlocking linearly over 7 months. This means that for the vast majority of users who farmed points for the airdrop, the number of tokens they can actually receive on TGE day is far below previous market expectations.
What further dissatisfied the community was the unlock ratios for other allocation categories. According to the official token distribution, the Marketing portion accounts for 8.9%, but 7.7% is released at TGE, significantly higher than the airdrop release ratio. In contrast, users who participated in early interactions and contributed trading volume only receive 3.5% at TGE.
This comparison quickly sparked controversy within the community—users who participated in early interactions and contributed volume receive a minimal share at TGE, while marketing-related allocations get a much higher proportion released at launch. Simultaneously, Binance Launchpool directly received 2% of the token supply, further intensifying community dissatisfaction.
Meanwhile, the internal token holding proportions also exacerbated community discontent. According to the token distribution, investors hold 23%, the team and advisors hold 19.5%, and the foundation holds 12%, totaling over 54%.
OPN Token Unlock Schedule
After the tokenomics were revealed, market expectations shifted rapidly. Prior to this, OPN points were quoted as high as $45 per point in secondary markets. With only 3.5% of the airdrop released at TGE, the OTC price for Opinion points plummeted, with pre-market quotes quickly falling to $6 per point.
Furthermore, many "airdrop farming whales" who spent real money on transaction fees to farm points were ultimately flagged as Sybils. Based on community member feedback, while 1 point ultimately corresponded to $6, many users with high point rankings received airdrop values even lower than this. KOL 带带带比特 posted on X detailing his losses: investing $200,000 to farm points, ultimately receiving 2000 OPN tokens, valued at approximately $1000 at current prices. "200k USD for 2000 tokens. Yes, you read that right." This statement quickly went viral in the Chinese crypto community.
Adding to the community's sense of irony, according to Dune data, Opinion has accumulated over $17 million in revenue from transaction fees over the past months. Yet, based on current market prices, the value of the TGE airdrop is even lower than this figure.
Opinion's cumulative fee revenue exceeds $17 million
Summary
From "the most anticipated airdrop of 2026" to being mocked by the community as "almost everyone got farmed," Opinion's plot twist took only a few months. Although Opinion founder Forrest recently stated that more emphasis will be placed on Season 2 rewards, for many early participants, the Season 1 airdrop outcome has severely eroded trust.
Opinion founder emphasizes greater focus on S2 rewards
This sentiment quickly reflected in user behavior. An increasing number of participants are choosing to reduce or even stop trading on the platform, with on-chain data showing a significant decline. Platform TVL has plummeted from around $150 million to $36 million, and trading volume has dropped from $150 million to about $15 million, indicating a clear cooling in user activity.
Against this backdrop, the controversy surrounding Opinion is more than just an airdrop incident. As one of the most watched prediction market projects in the BNB Chain ecosystem, this event has had a significant impact on the entire sector.
After this turmoil, can the BNB Chain ecosystem still foster new prediction market platforms?
