Hold Bitcoin Mid-Term Short Positions, HYPE Successfully Rides the Wave for Profits | Guest Analysis

Hello everyone, I'm Cody, an invited analyst for Odaily. Wishing all our readers an early Happy Lantern Festival!

Looking back at Bitcoin's performance last week, the overall trend largely followed the previously established trading framework and rhythm. At the short-term strategy level, the market's movement closely aligned with our short-term assessment. We executed one short position (1x leverage) based on the short-term trading strategy, achieving a single-trade profit of approximately 2.12% (see Table 2 for details). Regarding the medium-term strategy, Bitcoin continued to adhere to the previously established mid-term approach, maintaining the short position opened at $89,000 (1x leverage). As of last week's close, the price had retreated to around $65,770, resulting in a paper profit of about 26.10% for this mid-term trade, with a maximum floating profit of around 32.58% during the period.

From a market analysis perspective, Bitcoin continued to trade within a weak range-bound consolidation structure last week. The rhythm of the price action remained consistent with our previous judgment of the C-2 wave rebound phase, with the nature of the short-term rebound unchanged.

Furthermore, I remain optimistic about HYPE's price action. Therefore, this weekly report continues with a weekly tracking and breakdown of HYPE's multi-cycle price structure. Last week, based on my own short-term structural assessment, I executed one short-term long position (1x leverage), achieving a single-trade profit of approximately 11.14%. The trading logic and execution results formed a good correspondence (see Table 1 for details).

The following sections will provide a more detailed explanation of the above content, covering market forecasts, strategy logic, trade execution, and result reviews.

1. HYPE Price Action – The Prelude to Wave III?

In my weekly review on February 22, I first highlighted the investment opportunity in HYPE, clearly stating: its original downtrend might be reversing. The current market is in the Wave II correction phase following the Wave I rally, with the potential for a major upward (Wave III) move in the near term. The core basis is as follows: (see Figure 2)

• During the Wave I rally, the price effectively broke through the long-term descending trendline (blue line in the chart) connecting the September 2025 high (approx. $59.48) and the October 2025 high (approx. $50.17).

• At the starting point of Wave I, our proprietary Momentum Quantification Model issued a daily-level momentum divergence signal.

• At the starting point of Wave I, our proprietary Spread Quantification Model triggered a strong bottom warning signal (white bars in the chart).

It is worth noting that the effectiveness of the signals from these two major models has been confirmed by the market through the strong upward performance of the price during the Wave I rally.

1. HYPE Short-Term Operation Review (1x Leverage): (02.22～03.01)

Last week, we strictly followed the trading signals issued by our proprietary Spread Trading Model and Momentum Quantification Model, combined with the forecast for the Wave III main upward move, to execute one short-term (long) operation, successfully profiting 11.14%.

(See Table 1)

• HYPE Short-Term Trade Details Summary: (Leverage*1x)

Table 1

• Entry Decision (see Figure 3): Based on the forecast for the main upward move; simultaneously, the Spread Quantification Model issued multiple bottom warning signals (red dots in the chart), followed by a bottom resonance signal with the Momentum Quantification Model; and the price broke through and held above a key previous resistance area. Therefore, a position was opened (long) at $27.28.

• Exit Decision: The Spread Quantification Model and Momentum Quantification Model issued a top resonance signal, so the position was closed around $30.32.

• Trade Summary: This operation successfully captured the upward opportunity in the early stage of Wave III, achieving a profit of approximately 11.14%.

HYPE 30-Minute K-line Chart

Figure 1 (Short-Term Trade Illustration)

2. Preliminary Division of Daily-Level Price Structure: (Based on price action evolution after January 21)

HYPE Daily K-line Chart

Figure 2

• Wave I (Impulse Wave): Started from the low of $20.46 on January 21 and ended at the high of $38.41 on February 3. Lasting 14 days, with a maximum gain of 87.73%, it constituted the first major impulse wave of this upward cycle.

• Wave II (Corrective Wave): Started from the high of $38.41 on February 3 and ended at the low of $25.60 on February 24. Lasting 20 days, it corrected Wave I with a maximum retracement of 33.35%.

• Wave III (Potential Impulse Wave): Initiated from the low of $25.60 on February 24, currently in progress. The third impulse wave is often the most explosive one.

• Confirmation of Wave III Starting Point Validity: The current price action has shown multiple technical characteristics consistent with the early stage of a strong impulse wave:

a. Break of Key Resistance Line: The price successfully broke through an important resistance line (yellow line in the chart) that had been in place since the Wave II correction, after three consecutive failed attempts. This marks a shift in the balance of power between bulls and bears.

b. Strong Momentum Validation: The rebound from the February 24 low completely covered the losses of the previous 10 days in just 6 days of gains. Particularly notable was the large bullish candlestick on February 28 with a gain of 14.25%, demonstrating significant strength characteristic of early Wave III momentum.

c. Structural Trend Reversal: The current high has surpassed two important structural points adjacent to the February 24 low during the Wave II correction: the high of $30.59 on February 21 and the low of $27.73 on February 19. This preliminarily forms a "higher high" pattern, indicating that the original downtrend structure has been largely reversed.

• Wave III Endpoint Confirmation: The high of the Wave III move must exceed the Wave I peak of $38.41. Otherwise, this price action may still belong to a wide-range consolidation or a rebound within a downtrend structure.

3. HYPE 4-Hour Level Subdivision Structure

HYPE 4-Hour K-line Chart

Figure 3

In Figure 3, we provide a finer subdivision of the daily-level waves mentioned above.

• Wave I Internal Structure: Can be subdivided into 5 upward segments: 0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, 4-5, forming a complete upward move.

• Wave II Internal Structure: Can be subdivided into 7 corrective segments: 5-6, 6-7, 7-8, 8-9, 9-10, 10-11, 11-12, forming an orderly retracement.

• Wave III Internal Structure: Currently in progress. Temporarily can be subdivided into 3 segments: 12-13, 13-14, 14-15, with the 14-15 upward segment not yet complete.

2. Back to Bitcoin – Mainly Range-Bound Consolidation: (02.22～03.01)

1. Short-Term Operation Strategy Review: (See Table 2)

We strictly followed the trading signals issued by our proprietary Spread Trading Model and Momentum Quantification Model, combined with our market forecast, to execute one short-term (short) operation last week, achieving a profit of 2.12%.

①、Bitcoin Short-Term Trade Details Summary: (Leverage*1x)

Table 2

②、Short-Term Trade Review: (See Figure 4)

• Entry: Price encountered resistance upon retesting the descending trendline, while the Spread Trading Model triggered a top warning signal (green dot in the chart), combined with two model short resonance signals. A 15% short position was established at $68,876.

• Risk Control: Initial stop-loss for the short position set at $72,000.

• Exit: Price fell near support, combined with a model bottom resonance signal and candlestick pattern bottoming signals. The entire position was closed at $67,415.

• Summary: This trade yielded a profit of 2.12%.

Bitcoin 30-Minute K-line Chart: (Momentum Quantification Model + Spread Trading Model)

Figure 4 (Short-Term Trade Illustration)

3. Bitcoin Indicator Analysis: Weekly and Daily Comprehensive Assessment

Weekly Level: Mid-Term Bearish Structure Persists

From the weekly structure perspective, the momentum line in the Momentum Quantification Model continues to decline. Although the negative momentum bars have shortened periodically, no effective divergence signal has formed, indicating the bearish trend has not fundamentally changed. The Sentiment Quantification Model shows the market has not yet entered a clear oversold panic zone, and conditions for bottom sentiment repair remain insufficient. Meanwhile, the Digital Monitoring Model has not given a bottom confirmation signal.

In terms of chart structure, last week's weekly candlestick closed as a bearish candle with a decline of approximately 2.76%. The price broke below the previous triangular convergence structure, with the trading center of gravity clearly shifting lower. The overall pattern is more consistent with a bearish continuation (descending consolidation) feature, suggesting the mid-term trend remains weak.

Daily Level: Oversold Rebound Continues, but Momentum is Limited

Observing from the daily level, the market has maintained a sideways consolidation pattern in the short term. The momentum line formed a "golden cross" below the zero line and is rising slightly, indicating short-term rebound momentum is being released. However, the positive momentum bars are arranged disorderly with insufficient persistence, suggesting a weak rebound rhythm.

Regarding the Sentiment Quantification Model, although the sentiment indicator is slowly moving out of the oversold zone, capital participation remains limited. Both bulls and bears are mainly in a wait-and-see mode, making it difficult to drive a trend-based upward attack.

Multi-Cycle Comprehensive Judgment

Combining weekly and daily analysis, Bitcoin is currently still trading within a bearish-dominated downtrend structure. The daily-level rebound is more inclined to be a technical correction during the decline. Until the weekly trend is effectively reversed, caution is warranted regarding the rebound's height and sustainability.

The above data suggests: The daily bearish trend has not changed; the oversold rebound is continuing.

4. Market Forecast: (03.02～03.08)

1. Bitcoin Uptrend Central Pivot Construction (Based on price action after the February 6 low)

Bitcoin 4-Hour K-line Chart

Figure 5

Using Bitcoin's 4-hour chart as the operational timeframe:

• Central Pivot Construction: From the 4-hour chart, it is known that the probability of currently constructing an "uptrend central pivot" structure is relatively high. Its highest resistance is around $72,300, and its lowest support has shifted down to around $62,500.

• Core Operation Plan:

• Upward Rebound: If the price effectively breaks through the resistance near $72,300, escaping the current "central pivot gravity", it may continue the C-2 segment oversold rebound. However, the rebound space is expected to be limited.

• Downward Adjustment: The current central pivot's lowest support has shifted down to around $62,500, close to the February 6 low of $60,000. If the price breaks below this support, the C-2 segment oversold rebound may end, potentially initiating the C-3 segment correction.

• Regardless of which of the above price actions occurs, it is recommended that investors adhere to a "sell on rallies" strategy for short-term operations.

2. This Week's Core View: Maintain the range-bound consolidation pattern, focusing on the struggle between bulls and bears near the range edges. Strategically, firmly implement the operational principle of "reduce positions (longs) on rallies, control risk".

3. Core Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $68,500-$70,000 area (previous high-volume trading zone)

• Second Resistance Zone: $72,300-$74,500 area (near last April's low)

4. Core Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Around $65,000 (previous important support area)

• Second Support Level: $60,000～$62,500 area (near the February 6 low)

• Third Support Level: Around $57,400 (near the 210-week moving average)

5. Plan A & B Strategies (Excluding Impact of Sudden News): (03.02～03.08)

1. Mid-Term Strategy: Maintain 60% short position. If the rebound effectively breaks above $74,500, the position can be reduced to 40%.

2. Short-Term Strategy: Utilize 30% of capital, set stop-loss points, and look for "spread" trading opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use 30-minute/60-minute as the operational timeframe).

3. Since the market's mid