24H Hot Cryptocurrencies and Key News｜US Treasury Secretary Besant: Expects Fed Not to Take Swift Action on Balance Sheet; Data: Despite Silver Plunge, Retail Investors Double Down on Bets (February 9)
- Core View: Recent crypto market volatility may stem from risk deleveraging actions within the traditional financial system, rather than a deterioration in industry fundamentals. Meanwhile, US prediction markets exhibit "fragile prosperity" amid regulatory tussles, and stablecoin regulation and yield issues are becoming focal points of policy discussions.
- Key Elements:
- Bitwise advisor analysis points out that the Bitcoin plunge on February 5th is related to forced deleveraging by multi-strategy funds in traditional finance. The overall net inflows into ETFs indicate selling pressure is not from long-term capital flight.
- The growth of US prediction markets (e.g., Kalshi) relies on regulatory arbitrage, with sports-related trades dominating. Non-sports markets are small in scale, lack liquidity, and face risks from tightening regulations.
- The White House will hold a crypto meeting, focusing on stablecoin yield issues. The banking sector hopes to restrict interest payments to prevent deposit outflows, while crypto companies argue this would stifle innovation.
- The US CFTC expands stablecoin rules, allowing state trust banks to issue dollar-pegged tokens under the GENIUS Act. Illinois proposes a bill to establish a state-level Bitcoin reserve.
- Trader Eugene emphasizes survival as the priority in a bear market, advises that trading requires strict stop-losses, and notes that Bitcoin at $60,000 may become a key support level.
- Bithumb has completed the handling of the Bitcoin mis-send incident, using its own assets to cover the unrecovered portion to ensure user asset safety, and has initiated multiple user compensation measures.
- The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has remained negative for 25 consecutive days, reflecting significant selling pressure in the US market and declining investor risk appetite.
1. Hot Tokens on CEXs
Top 10 CEX Trading Volume and 24-hour Price Changes:
- BTC: +1.96%
- ETH: +0.07%
- BNB: -1.46%
- WLFI: +1.69%
- SOL: -0.56%
- PSG: -0.75%
- DOGE: -1.65%
- ATM: +2.22%
- CITY: +0.19%
- JUV: -2.76%
24-hour Top Gainers (Data Source: OKX):
- ICX: +14.12%
- BERA: +11.78%
- TOSHI: +7.02%
- SWFTC: +4.41%
- SONIC: +4.29%
- HYPE: +4.19%
- LQTY: +3.53%
- SPK: +3.36%
- MAGIC: +3.14%
- BABY: +2.59%
24-hour Top Gainers in Crypto Stocks (Data Source: msx.com):
- PSTG: +10.44%
- RMBS: +9.17%
- GLW: +8.31%
- BTCS: +6.94%
- BTOG: +6.07%
- NVO: +4.76%
- VERB: +4.18%
- ICG: +4.17%
- NTAP: +3.77%
- SUIG: +3.65%
2. Trending On-chain Memes (Data Source: GMGN):
- WhiteWhale
- USELESS
- Buttcoin
- PENGUIN
- WAR
Headlines
US Treasury Secretary Besant: Fed Not Expected to Take Swift Action on Balance Sheet
US Treasury Secretary Besant stated that gold appears to be in a typical speculative sell-off; cyclical components of the market are seen in an expansion phase; the Fed is not expected to take swift action on its balance sheet. He expressed confidence that Warsh will be very independent.
Bithumb Completes Handling of Bitcoin Mistransfer Incident and Initiates User Compensation
According to a Bithumb announcement, the platform has completed all handling work for the previous Bitcoin mistransfer incident and confirmed that as of 22:42:52 on February 7, 2026, user Bitcoin (BTC) assets have achieved over 100% asset consistency. Bithumb stated that approximately 99.7% of the mistakenly sent Bitcoin was recovered on the day of the incident, and the remaining 0.3% (1,788 BTC) that had been sold was covered by the company's own assets to ensure user assets were unaffected.
The announcement shows that all crypto asset reserves held by Bithumb, including BTC, are now fully consistent with or exceed user holdings. The platform also published a timeline of the incident handling and announced that user compensation measures will be launched in batches starting February 8. These include distributing 20,000 KRW compensation to users online during the incident, refunding the price difference to users who sold at low prices with an additional 10% consolation payment, and offering a 0% trading fee promotion for all trading pairs for 7 days starting February 9.
Previous news: Bithumb Mistakenly Airdropped a Total of 620,000 BTC Last Night, 99.7% Has Been Recovered
Data: Despite Silver Plunge, Retail Investors Double Down on Bets
Despite a plunge in silver prices that nearly erased its impressive gains from the beginning of the year, retail investors poured nearly $500 million into the silver market over the past week. Data analysis from Vanda Research shows that as silver prices plummeted, retail investors invested $430 million into the largest silver ETF, SLV, over six trading days ending Thursday. This included over $100 million on January 30, when silver prices fell 27%, marking the largest single-day drop in history. Rona O'Connell, an analyst at StoneX, said, "People are drawn to the allure of silver." She added that silver's appeal was further enhanced by its "massive sell-off," with some investors seeing it as an opportunity to buy at a lower price.
Reviewing last week's market, trader Eugene stated that from a high-timeframe (HTF) market structure perspective, significant issues remain. Although Bitcoin's $60,000 level can still be considered reasonable support, he said the lesson learned from the previous cycle is: never go all-in long without stop-loss protection.
Eugene pointed out that in bull markets, rallies are often crazier than expected, while in bear markets, declines are always more severe than anticipated. He admitted that it's currently unclear where the bear market bottom is or whether Bitcoin has bottomed at $60,000, but emphasized that "survival is always the top priority." He advised traders to assess risk for each operation individually and implement stop-loss strategies to guard against further downside.
Analysis indicates that the prosperity of the US prediction market is built on an unstable foundation, primarily benefiting from regulatory arbitrage opportunities. For example, currently, there is no comprehensive system in US states to regulate user participation in sports betting through prediction market formats. Dune Analytics data shows that in 2025, sports-related trading accounted for about 85% of Kalshi's trading volume and approximately 39% of Polymarket's. Devin Ryan, Head of Financial Technology Research at Citizens Bank, believes the market needs to establish sound integrity rules, and trading volume in non-sports markets needs to increase. Currently, the market size for predicting January's CPI inflation data on Kalshi is less than $1 million, and for core inflation, it's less than $30,000. Such liquidity is insufficient to attract institutional participation.
Furthermore, the current US prediction market exhibits characteristics of "fragile prosperity," with growth primarily reliant on regulatory gray areas and substantial marketing investment. Once regulations tighten or user interest wanes, growth may face pressure. There is also regulatory博弈; for instance, US prediction markets typically argue they fall under event contract trading regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), but state-level regulators hold a more cautious stance. Related legal disputes may ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court.
Industry News
Strategy Bitcoin Strategist: Strategy Will Never Stop Buying BTC
Strategy Bitcoin strategist Chaitanya Jain posted on X platform, stating that he will never stop buying BTC.
Coinglass data shows that the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative territory for 25 consecutive days, currently reported at -0.0864%. In 2026, there have been only two days with positive values: 0.011% on January 6 and 0.0023% on January 15.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index measures the difference between Bitcoin prices on Coinbase (a mainstream US trading platform) and the global market average price. This index is an important indicator for observing capital flows in the US market, institutional investment enthusiasm, and changes in market sentiment. A positive premium indicates Coinbase prices are higher than the global average, typically meaning: strong buying pressure in the US market, active entry by institutional or compliant funds, ample USD liquidity, and optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium indicates Coinbase prices are lower than the global average, typically reflecting: greater selling pressure in the US market, declining investor risk appetite, rising market避险 sentiment, or capital outflows.
Project News
Prediction Market Kalshi Confirms "Greek Freak's" Stake is Less Than 1%
NBA Milwaukee Bucks star "Greek Freak" Giannis Antetokounmpo previously announced he had become a shareholder in Kalshi, a prediction market platform regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to a company spokesperson, Giannis's stake is less than 1%, but specific shareholding data was not publicly disclosed, nor was the actual gap between his stake and 1% explained. However, based on Kalshi's recent $11 billion valuation, a 1% stake would be worth $110 million.
Tether has invested profits from its stablecoin business into 140 investments spanning from agriculture to sports and plans to expand its workforce to 450 people.
Financing
Relay Completes $17 Million Series B Funding Led by Archetypevc and USV, to Launch Relay Chain
On-chain fund interoperability infrastructure Relay posted on X platform, announcing the completion of a $17 million Series B funding round led by Archetypevc and USV. Additionally, Relay will launch Relay Chain, an infrastructure specifically built for instant cross-chain settlement.
Regulatory Developments
CFTC: Allows National Trust Banks to Issue Stablecoins Under GENIUS Act Framework
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has expanded stablecoin rules, allowing national trust banks to issue tokens pegged to the US dollar under the GENIUS Act framework.
Illinois Proposes Bill to Establish State-Level Bitcoin Reserve
Bitcoin.com News posted on X platform, stating that Illinois proposed the "Community Bitcoin Reserve Act" earlier this week. The bill aims to establish a state-operated program to hold Bitcoin via multi-signature cold storage, initially setting up the Altgeld Bitcoin Reserve. According to the bill, the reserved Bitcoin can only be traded or sold upon authorization by new legislation.
Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett disclosed that the White House will hold a new round of cryptocurrency meetings next Tuesday, focusing on stablecoin yield issues. This meeting is the second in a series, still at the staff level, and will not invite corporate CEOs. However, senior policy personnel from several banks will attend for the first time.
Informed sources said that large banks including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo have received invitations; Citibank, PNC Bank, and U.S. Bank may also participate. Banking representative institutions include the Bank Policy Institute, American Bankers Association, and Independent Community Bankers of America.
The report stated that the banking side hopes to restrict crypto companies from paying interest to stablecoin holders, concerned that high-yield accounts could attract deposit outflows and affect loan funding supply. Crypto companies argue that this stance would weaken competition and stifle innovation. Scott Besant stated this week that deposit volatility is undesirable and efforts will be made to avoid stablecoin yield payments causing deposit instability.
This meeting is related to the advancement of the "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" (CLARITY Act). Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the White House Cryptocurrency Committee, has urged all parties to reach a consensus by the end of this month.
Voices
Arthur Hayes: HYPE Will Outperform Any Altcoin with Market Cap Over $1 Billion in 2026
Arthur Hayes posted on X platform, responding to Kyle Samani's comment that HYPE has underperformed, proposing a bet. Arthur Hayes predicts that from 00:00 UTC on February 10, 2026, to 00:00 UTC on July 31, 2026, HYPE's USD-denominated performance will outperform any altcoin with a market capitalization over $1 billion on CoinGecko. The loser must donate $100,000 to a charity designated by the winner.
Vitalik: Algorithmic Stablecoins Are True DeFi
Vitalik Buterin posted on X platform, stating that algorithmic stablecoins belong to true DeFi. He believes that if there is a high-quality algorithmic stablecoin with ETH as the underlying asset, even if the majority of liquidity is supported by CDP holders holding negative algorithmic dollars, the ability to transfer counterparty risk to market makers is an important feature. Even if an algorithmic stablecoin is backed by RWAs, if it can ensure sufficient collateral through over-collateralization and diversification in case a single RWA fails, it is an effective improvement in risk characteristics for holders. He pointed out that the industry should develop in these directions and gradually move away from using the US dollar as a unit of account towards a more general diversified index. Furthermore, the current operation of depositing USDC into Aave does not fall into the above categories.
Tom Lee, Chairman of Ethereum treasury company Bitmine, stated in an interview that in just the past 8 years, Ethereum has experienced 7 pullbacks exceeding 60%, each followed by a rapid recovery. He noted that these movements typically manifest as a sharp decline first, followed by a swift rebound.
Tom Lee also said that if the current crypto market is in a bottoming phase, there is a possibility based on some market performances, mentioning Strategy's recent approximately 25% rebound as one observation factor. He stated that historical experience shows such recoveries often exhibit relatively rapid repair characteristics.
"Rich Dad Poor Dad" author Robert Kiyosaki responded on X platform to community质疑 regarding his previous claim of "stopping further purchases around $60 for silver, $6000 for Bitcoin, and $300 for gold." He stated he knows his Bitcoin purchase cost (around $6000) but does not focus on the specific purchase date, criticizing that doubters only question the authenticity of his statements based on the timing. Robert Kiyosaki further questioned the motives of some community users overly focused on purchase dates, stating he pays more attention to the asset's price range and long-term value. If Bitcoin prices fall back to the $6000 level in the future, he still plans to continue buying and will not care about the specific timing. He also revealed he is currently preparing to continue
