"Lucky Dumb Whales" Hunting Quantitative Bots

In today's financial landscape where quantitative trading dominates the stock market, most people view these cold, algorithmic robots as Wall Street's ruthless harvesters, constantly siphoning off the hard-earned money of retail investors at millisecond speeds, capitalizing on emotional misjudgments or information asymmetry.

However, in a nascent market over the past 48 hours, the near-perfect profit curves of multiple top-tier quantitative bots collectively snapped. Meanwhile, a mysterious account named a4385 raked in a staggering $280,000 from the chaos.

This market is called the prediction market, and it is here that a trader named a4385 showcased to the world a meticulously planned hunt targeting quantitative bots.

The Financial Version of "Heads or Tails": A Quantitative Model's Arbitrage Paradise

Everyone understands "heads or tails," and prediction markets have a similar game.

For example, if you bet on "up" in "Will the price of gold rise or fall tomorrow?" and the price indeed rises tomorrow, then regardless of the magnitude of the increase, your "up" position will be settled for profit based on the odds at the time of betting. The odds themselves correspond to the probability of the event occurring. Conversely, if the price falls, no matter how much it drops, your position will be wiped out to zero.

"Will XRP rise or fall in 15 minutes?" is a typical representative of the numerous markets within prediction markets. Each 15-minute market opens with a starting price; 15 minutes later, if XRP's price is higher than the starting price, traders who bet "up" profit, and vice versa for those who bet "down."

As shown, 'Price To Beat' corresponds to the starting price, and 'Current Price' corresponds to the real-time price. The red '12:29' in the top right corner indicates the remaining time until settlement. If the price line is above the 'target' in the chart at settlement, bets on 'up' profit; otherwise, bets on 'down' profit.

This real-time mechanism makes this market a paradise for quantitative bots: algorithms use sophisticated statistical models to capture pricing deviations caused by retail investor emotions, information delays, remaining time, and other factors, perfectly eroding steady profits through automated trading.

0x8dxd is a perfect example among many quantitative bots: Since its launch on December 5, 2025, it has accumulated $740,000 in profits over the past 44 days, participating in an average of 219 different markets daily, with a remarkably smooth profit curve.

XRP Soars Exactly at Settlement: "Lucky Big Whale" Doubles Their Money

On the afternoon of January 17, 2026, a4385 placed a bet on "up" in the "Will XRP rise or fall in 15 minutes?" market.

The starting price for XRP in this market was $2.0784. Until 17:58:54 (66 seconds before settlement), XRP's price still hovered around $2.0737, with a corresponding probability of rising of only 36%—the market consensus was that it would be difficult for XRP to rise above the starting price in the remaining single minute.

Yet, in the very next minute, XRP suddenly began a sustained climb, and the quoted price at market settlement locked in at $2.0817—just barely surpassing the starting price.

This meant a4385's position from entry to settlement realized massive profits, while quantitative bots, like the one in the chart below, were forced to surrender all their historical profits from this single market, even incurring additional losses.

This quantitative bot had profits exceeding $40,000 over the past 7 months, but incurred a loss of $34,000 in this specific market.

The Meticulous Manipulation Behind Repeated "Luck"

After this market settled, people discovered that a4385 subsequently replicated this "incredible luck" several times: in multiple markets, just one minute before settlement, the XRP price suddenly surged, only to plummet rapidly the second after settlement.

This led people to suspect that his "luck" might not be coincidental but rather a precise snipe targeting quantitative bots.

Theoretically, a4385 could first bet on "up" when XRP's real-time price is below the starting price. Then, in the minute before settlement, he could place large market buy orders for XRP, artificially pushing the price up to ensure it exceeds the starting price at settlement, thereby locking in profits.

At this point, all previously seemingly trivial details become crucial: the 17th was a weekend, meaning the order book depth provided by market makers for XRP was insufficient to buffer large, short-term trades.

Choosing XRP, a less popular asset compared to Bitcoin, further ensured shallower order book depth, allowing the manipulator to move the price with less capital in a short time.

This gave a4385 a perfect, brief window for manipulation:

First, in the prediction market, place multiple large bets on "up" within the 10 minutes before market settlement. Since the real-time price during this period is below the starting price, the odds for betting at this time are higher.

On the corresponding XRP price chart, the price hovered around 2.074 until just before 17:59. In the final minute, several abnormal large-volume trades flooded in, causing the price to instantly break through the starting price (red horizontal line).

Immediately after the market successfully settles, sell off the recently purchased XRP, causing the price to instantly drop back down.

If we assume all market buy orders at 17:59 came from a4385, then based on the trading volume of $569,000 for that minute's candlestick and an exchange fee of 0.32%, the total cost of buying and selling would be approximately $6,200.

His profit from betting "up" in this market was $40,218. By repeatedly replicating this strategy, he has earned nearly $300,000 within 48 hours.

While marveling at a4385's seemingly money-printing operation, we must also account for the costs behind this seemingly "retail investor strikes back" thrilling story.

Beyond bearing thousands of dollars in fee slippage from buying to pump the price, selling off after settlement also incurs massive losses due to the price drop.

Therefore, while pumping, he also needs to hold an equivalent 1x short position. Only in this way can his total asset value remain unchanged regardless of how violently the spot XRP price in his hands fluctuates.

In other words, besides bearing fee slippage, he also requires over a million dollars in liquid capital to ensure the feasibility of this strategy.

So, this is not a gambler's game of luck, nor is it a carnival for ordinary retail investors.

Behind each legendary story of casino-like profits, perhaps the one laughing last is never luck itself, but the inevitable outcome of capital, structure, and rules being precisely calculated.