Crypto Market Observer x 0xTodd: Stablecoins Are a Severely Underestimated Killer App, On Crypto Research and AI Judgment

BitMart "Market Observer" is a newly launched in-depth Chinese interview series by BitMart, inviting the most insightful and influential builders, investors, and researchers in the Web3 industry to engage in conversations centered on financial innovation, technological evolution, and long-term trends, leaving behind judgments and experiences of genuine reference value for the industry.

In the crypto industry, most discussions revolve around price fluctuations, narrative rotations, and the next opportunity. However, what truly determines whether someone can stay at the table long-term is often not a single doubling of investment, but rather: whether they still know what they are doing when the market gives no feedback.

This is also something 0xTodd has repeatedly verified over the past eight years.

Guest for this episode of "Market Observer": 0xTodd, Partner at Nothing Research, Co-founder of Ethereum Staking Pool EBunker

Host: yuanyuan, BitMart Marketing VP

Transitioning from a materials chemistry background into the crypto industry in 2017, 0xTodd is both a long-term researcher and a builder persistently seeking "certainty" within the underlying structures. Compared to emotionally driven participation, he is more concerned with: which things are worth a long-term bet.

I. The Crossover: From the Lab to the "Arrival Moment" of Bitcoin

Todd's entry into the industry was not gradual but carried distinct marks of the era.

In 2017, he was preparing to apply for overseas PhD programs. Simultaneously, the "WannaCry" ransomware attack erupted globally, with hackers demanding victims pay the ransom in Bitcoin. While most focused on the cybersecurity risk itself, he saw another signal—Bitcoin entering the mainstream narrative for the first time with a "real-world use case."

Having been exposed to Bitcoin as early as 2013, Todd was extremely sensitive to this point. He later mentioned an empirical judgment multiple times:

Whenever mainstream media begins seriously discussing "what Bitcoin can be used for," it often signals the unfolding of a major cycle.

Thus, he halted his PhD applications and turned to the crypto industry. In his view, this was not a speculative choice but a rational decision made after witnessing a new financial species entering the mainstream—a shift from a traditional academic path with limited growth potential to a rapidly evolving new field.

II. Taking a Stand Amidst the Noise: A Structural Judgment on Luna

After entering the industry, research and writing quickly became Todd's primary labels.

From early content output on Zhihu, to establishing formal research systems within family offices and exchange research institutes, to later founding Nothing Research, he consistently focused on long-term research around core themes like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins. As his platform shifted to Twitter (X), his research gained wider visibility and more frequent challenges.

In 2021, when Luna and UST were at the peak of market sentiment, he chose to stand in perhaps the most unpopular position—publicly questioning their underlying structure and defining them as systems highly reliant on confidence. For a period, this judgment brought him not applause but continuous attacks and ridicule.

The result came in 2022 with the collapse of UST. The funds managed by Todd achieved significant net value growth during the extreme market conditions by shorting UST. While he didn't completely "exit at the top" during the DeFi Summer, this successful judgment validated his repeated emphasis on "earning money through understanding."

"The thrill of proving one's understanding with real money is more exhilarating than ordinary profit-making; it's a frenzy of dopamine secretion."

III. Research Methodology: I Welcome the World to 'Challenge' Me

Unlike many researchers, Todd does not shy away from debate; he even actively encourages "challenges."

He is accustomed to inviting people with different stances to offer rebuttals after publishing his research views. In his view, the real danger is not being opposed, but having research conclusions that are repeatedly self-consistent in a closed environment without ever undergoing external validation.

This habit stems from his early training in materials chemistry:

Every conclusion needs a source, every piece of logic must be traceable, and every judgment must be reviewable.

Because of this, his research standards remain restrained and strict—preferring slowness over sacrificing accuracy for attention. In an industry of extreme information overload, this "slow thinking" has helped him avoid a vast amount of noise.

In his view, the biggest challenge in the crypto industry is not a lack of information, but how to judge which information is worth believing. The methodology formed during his academic research phase has precisely become a crucial tool for filtering information.

IV. Investment Philosophy: An Asset Portfolio That Lets You "Sleep Soundly"

Discussing asset allocation, Todd presented the portfolio structure he currently finds most compelling—Bitcoin + U.S. Treasuries.

The logic is not complex:

• Bitcoin: Only needs to observe one variable—whether major economies are still expanding their money supply. As long as the fiat system continues to inflate, Bitcoin's hedging value as a "non-sovereign, limited-supply asset" will not disappear.
• U.S. Treasuries: In a high-interest-rate cycle, lock in long-term yields around 4%–5%, providing stable cash flow for the portfolio.

This, in his view, forms a complete cycle:

If money printing continues, Bitcoin benefits; if money printing stops, U.S. Treasuries provide stable returns.

"This is a portfolio that allows one to sleep soundly long-term."

V. The Underestimated Killer App: Stablecoins

If Bitcoin is the first killer application in the blockchain space, then in Todd's view, stablecoins are the second, and they remain underestimated to this day.

After living and working overseas, his perception of stablecoins' value became extremely direct. The traditional banking system is not as stable as imagined; account restrictions, compliance reviews, and cross-border friction can arise at any time. With stablecoins, all you need is a wallet to complete global value transfers.

On the topic of RWA, his attitude remains restrained and differentiated:

He is cautious about the "full tokenization of securities," believing traditional finance is already highly mature in these areas; however, for stablecoin products pegged to real yield assets, especially U.S. Treasuries, he shows clear long-term optimism.

In this context, he has also noted products like BMRUSD (in collaboration with DigiFT) launched by BitMart. These stablecoins, pegged to real assets and offering predictable yields, represent a form more likely to gain long-term market acceptance under the trend of compliance.

"After using stablecoins once, it's hard to fully return to the traditional banking system."

The Silicon-Based Perspective of AI: Crypto is Its Natural Solution

Regarding the relationship between AI and crypto, Todd is not obsessed with conceptual overlap but thinks from a structural perspective.

In his view, AI-assisted trading is an almost inevitable direction. As model capabilities continue to improve, AI's stability and speed in execution will eventually surpass the vast majority of human traders.

More importantly, there is the issue of collaboration and payment between AIs. When AIs start calling each other's services, purchasing computing power, or data, binding a bank card is clearly unrealistic. High-precision, programmable, permissionless stablecoins become the most natural settlement medium.

From this perspective, Crypto is not a subsidiary narrative to AI but its natural complement at the economic level.

When asked if he, as a content creator, worries about being replaced by AI, Todd said he would prepare expectations in advance and wait for its arrival.

Advice for Newcomers, and Three Judgments for 2026

For newcomers wanting to enter the industry, Todd's advice remains practical and conservative:

Learn technology first, then learn trading.

Understanding the technical principles of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and DeFi is far more important than staring at price charts from the start.

Regarding future judgments, he proposed three main themes:

1. Crypto finds its place in the AI wave: AI provides productivity, Crypto provides production relations.
2. Continued expansion of stablecoin use cases: Payments, wealth management, and cross-border settlements will truly enter the mainstream view.
3. Compliance brings structural growth: Participation from large financial institutions will propel the industry into a new stage of development.

Slow Judgment is the Real Long-Term Competitiveness

Todd does not chase the crest of narratives. He is more like someone constantly moving within structures: researching, verifying, building, reviewing.

In a highly cyclical industry, the market rewards speed, but those who ultimately remain are often those who truly understand the structure and are willing to take responsibility for every word they say.

Recording date for this episode: December 16, 2025. To listen to the full content, please search for and follow "Market Observer" on Xiaoyuzhou, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify.

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Risk Warning:

Opinions or views expressed in this series represent the personal stance of the guest(s) only and do not represent the views of BitMart or its affiliates, nor should they be considered professional financial investment advice.

Cryptocurrency investment is highly speculative and carries a significant risk of loss. Past performance, hypothetical scenarios, or simulation results do not guarantee future returns. The value of digital currencies may fluctuate, and buying, holding, or trading digital currencies may involve substantial risks. Before participating in trading or holding digital currencies, please carefully assess their suitability based on your own investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance. BitMart does not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice.