When Polymarket Enters the Dow Jones, Prediction Markets Are Becoming Part of Serious Journalism

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Ding Dang (@XiaMiPP)

Recently, the prediction market platform Polymarket has entered into an exclusive partnership with Dow Jones Media Group. According to the agreement, the real-time prediction probabilities provided by Polymarket will become the sole prediction market data source adopted across all of Dow Jones' consumer platforms, covering various sections including its dedicated data modules, event pages, and customized earnings calendars.

Dow Jones Media Group owns renowned financial media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Barron's, and MarketWatch, with The Wall Street Journal being one of the most credible media outlets in global financial information dissemination. This means that in the future, ordinary readers browsing the news will not only see traditional expert analysis or opinion polls but will also encounter probability predictions based on the "wisdom of the crowd"—covering various scenarios from elections and economic trends to cultural issues.

Furthermore, this collaboration is expected to bring new changes to news reporting methods: prediction markets serve as a tool to supplement "truth," presenting a set of probability outcomes formed by real-money competition, providing the public with a more multi-dimensional and real-time reference for trend judgment.

Dow Jones: An Unusual "Mainstream Endorsement"

Unlike typical media collaborations, the symbolic significance of the Dow Jones Group likely far outweighs mere traffic or exposure. As one of the world's most influential financial news organizations, the primary audience of Dow Jones' media outlets is not the general public but institutional investors, professional traders, high-net-worth individuals, and policy and business decision-makers. This dictates that its content system has always been known for being prudent, conservative, and verifiable, with extremely strict standards for screening information sources.

From this perspective, the systematic embedding of Polymarket's prediction data into The Wall Street Journal represents not just product-level integration but also a form of recognition: prediction markets are no longer just entertainment or speculative tools but are information sources with certain reference value. At least within Dow Jones' editorial system, they have been placed in the context of "serious news," rather than gambling or fringe platforms.

In fact, prior to Polymarket, Kalshi had already partnered with CNN and CNBC in early December: for instance, CNN's data analysts would cite Kalshi's real-time probability data in reports on political and public events; CNBC would display Kalshi's brand ticker in some programs and integrate related content on its digital platforms. While these moves have brought prediction markets into the public eye, they are essentially fragmented, multi-party collaborations.

In contrast, Polymarket's agreement is an integrated, exclusive consolidation: the entire Dow Jones Group platform will uniformly adopt Polymarket as its sole data source, covering comprehensive embedding from print to digital content. Therefore, Polymarket's current exclusive partnership with Dow Jones Media Group is stronger and has greater influence.

Why Now? Prediction Markets Proved Themselves in 2025

Although prediction markets have existed for several years, they only experienced explosive growth in 2025. Data shows that Polymarket and Kalshi achieved their best historical performance records in 2025, with cumulative trading volume approaching $40 billion, and both companies reaching valuations in the tens of billions of dollars. This scale of leap has transformed prediction markets from entertainment speculation into financial infrastructure.

More importantly, during the 2024 election, Polymarket outperformed traditional polls with high accuracy rates (especially in swing states). It priced Trump's probability of winning above 95% early on, while many polls still showed a "tight race." Over the past year, prediction markets have further demonstrated with their own performance that monetary incentives filter out noise, forcing participants to "use real money" to back their judgments, making incorrect judgments "costly." It is precisely for this reason that prediction markets have truly earned their place in the mainstream information system. They are no longer simply viewed as "gambling" but are seen as an efficient "aggregator of crowd wisdom."

Shedding the "Gambling Label" Does Not Equal Completing Institutional Transformation

However, being accepted by mainstream media does not mean prediction markets have completed their institutional transformation from a "gambling format" to a "financial instrument."

At the regulatory level, significant divergence remains in this field. Taking Kalshi as an example, although it holds relevant licenses from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), in the eyes of some state-level regulators, prediction contracts are still considered gambling activities. Especially in places like Nevada, debates over their legality continue. Recently, Kalshi lost a preliminary injunction to block enforcement actions by Nevada regulators just before Thanksgiving and is now petitioning the court to continue blocking state regulatory actions during the appeal. The court's revocation of the injunction means Kalshi faces potential legal risks, including being deemed an illegal gambling platform and facing prosecution, if it continues to operate in Nevada. Nevada regulators accuse Kalshi of "continuously engaging in illegal activities" without a state gambling license and emphasize that similar companies like Crypto.com and Robinhood have agreed to suspend local operations during their appeals.

As for Polymarket, recent events where it accurately predicted U.S. actions against Venezuela, leading to insider trading suspicions, have reignited discussions about regulatory gaps in prediction markets. Insider trading is illegal in traditional financial markets, but it is unregulated in prediction markets like Polymarket. Currently, there is no unified, clear mechanism to define whether such actions constitute violations.

Conclusion

Polymarket's partnership with Dow Jones does not mean the regulatory issues surrounding prediction markets have been resolved, but it at least sends a signal: prediction markets are being used by mainstream media as a new information tool and are gradually shedding the marginalizing labels of gambling and betting platforms. When The Wall Street Journal starts displaying prediction probabilities, this transformation can no longer be ignored.