Pentagon Pizza Index Soars 1250%: Who Will Be the Next Venezuela?

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜jk

On January 7, 2026, a seemingly absurd yet consistently effective intelligence indicator captured global attention. According to social media monitoring, pizza order volumes near the Pentagon surged by 1250% over the past 48 hours, a figure nearly double the 700% increase observed on the eve of the Venezuela military operation. This is "The Pentagon Pizza Index," a remarkable indicator whose underlying implication is that the United States is brewing a new military action.

Pizza Orders and Military Intelligence?

The concept of the Pentagon Pizza Index dates back to 1990. At that time, Frank Meeks, owner of a Domino's Pizza franchise in the Washington D.C. area, noticed a peculiar phenomenon: on the evening of August 1, 1990, the CIA placed a record 21 pizza orders, and the very next day, Iraq invaded Kuwait.

This pattern has repeated itself:

• Before the Panama operation in December 1989, order volumes spiked from 30-35 to over 100;
• During President Clinton's impeachment hearings and the "Desert Fox" operation in Iraq in December 1998, extra-cheese pizza orders to the White House increased by 32%.

The logic behind this is straightforward. During high-pressure crisis moments, Department of Defense (now the Department of War, renamed by Trump) staff often work 16-20 hour shifts. Pizza, being cheap, filling, and convenient for delivery, becomes the go-to choice for overtime meals.

Today, dedicated websites exist to monitor six pizza shops near the Pentagon in real-time, including Papa John's and Domino's. Currently, this website is showing crazy multiples across the board, ranging from 150% to 1250%.

What About Before the Venezuela Operation?

In the early hours of January 3, 2026, U.S. forces launched a raid in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, successfully capturing President Maduro and his wife. Hours before the operation, the Papa John's pizza shop near the Pentagon was unusually busy.

This was not a sudden military action either. The U.S. had been conducting a large-scale military buildup in the Caribbean region since August 2025: In August, the USS Iwo Jima amphibious assault ship group arrived; in November, the USS Ford carrier strike group arrived; totaling approximately 15,000 U.S. military personnel, marking the largest military deployment in the region in generations. Therefore, Pentagon staff worked overtime, causing all nearby pizza shops to work overtime as well.

A 1250% Surge: Who is the Next Target?

The latest data from Sunday evening shows that activity at a Papa John's pizza shop 2.3 miles from the Pentagon surged by 476%, while a closer Extreme Pizza saw a 200% increase. The peak-to-trough increase of 1250% set a new historical record.

The Trump administration has indicated this is part of its "Don-roe Doctrine." This is a metaphor for a modernized version of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, essentially an advanced version of MAGA. Trump declared on Saturday: "American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again."

Based on the latest statements from Trump and his senior officials, the following countries and regions could be the next targets:

• Greenland: Trump emphasized the U.S. needs Greenland to ensure national security. Prediction markets show the probability of the U.S. "controlling any part of Greenland" has risen from less than 20% last week to 38%. The Danish government is reportedly in "full crisis mode."
• Cuba: Secretary of State Rubio warned that the Cuban government "is in big trouble." He noted that Maduro's bodyguards were Cuban, and 32 Cuban officers were killed in the Venezuela operation. Trump stated: "Cuba looks like it's going to fall."
• Colombia: Trump directly threatened: "Colombia is also very sick, run by a sick man who likes to make cocaine and sell it to the United States. He won't be doing that for much longer." When asked about potential military action, Trump replied: "Sounds good."
• Iran: After Trump threatened to "hit Iran hard," prediction markets place a 54% probability that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei will be out of power before next year.

How Have These Countries Responded?

Colombian President Petro has adopted a tough stance. He reportedly said in November 2025: "Brother, if you want to put me in jail, see if you can." More recently, he announced that any commander who prefers the American flag over the Colombian flag would be immediately dismissed from the military.

The Cuban government has already held two days of national mourning for the 32 officers killed in the Venezuela operation, clearly on high alert regarding Rubio's warnings.

Memes and Prediction Markets: Already One Step Ahead

When such events occur, meme markets and prediction markets are always the fastest to move.

On Polymarket, the market for "Trump 'acquires' Greenland by 2027" is highly sensitive. The market probability has risen from about 7% on December 28 to the current 14%, a 7 percentage point increase, with trading volume exceeding $2.1 million. This rise coincides with the timing of the Venezuela operation.

The "U.S. strikes Cuba by xx date" market shows a tiered probability distribution: only 2% by January 31, 8% by March 31, but jumping to 20% by the end of the year. The loss of 32 Cuban officers in the Venezuela operation could serve as a trigger for U.S. action.

The "U.S. strikes Colombia by xx date" market exhibits a more aggressive probability curve: 3% by end of January, 7% by end of March, 15% by year-end.

Simultaneously, related memes have already emerged, such as Pentagon Pizza Watch (PPW); featuring a logo of a glowing pizza hovering over a green Pentagon, adorned with missile elements.

In terms of market performance, PPW has seen a 78.20% gain over one week, with a 24-hour trading volume of $114,369, ranking 3689th by market cap.

Here, we strongly recommend reading this Odaily article: "When War is Settled Before the News: How Prediction Markets 'Priced' the Maduro Capture 6 Days in Advance".