When Military Invasion Becomes a Word Game: Decrypting the White House's ATM Behind Polymarket

In the early hours of January 3, local time in Venezuela, U.S. forces entered the country simultaneously from the air and ground, took control of several key military facilities, and escorted President Nicolás Maduro to the United States.

Precision airstrikes, armed ground troop control, the abduction of a head of state... According to common definitions under international law, this constitutes a military invasion of a sovereign nation.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, on the globally hottest prediction market, Polymarket, a group of traders had already begun celebrating their own victory due to this attack.

They had bet before the incident that the U.S. military would invade Venezuela, and the smoke and gunfire reported in the news seemed like an early celebration of their massive profits from high odds.

At that moment, no one would have thought they had already become losers the moment they participated in the trade.

News Reported Globally Never Happened Here on Polymarket

The market "Will the US invade Venezuela before Jan 31, 2026?" had a straightforward definition for "invasion" before the attack: "a military offensive by US forces intended to establish control."

After the attack, the probability on this market surged from 2% to 80%. This probability-as-odds trading model meant traders who bet "Yes" before the attack saw massive unrealized gains.

Just as global mainstream media was reporting "US attacks Venezuela," the market suddenly saw multiple trades betting "No," asserting "the US did not invade Venezuela." This caused the probability to drop back down to a low of 7%.

Even after Trump brazenly stated "run Venezuela" following the attack, as of the time of writing, this market has still not been resolved, and the probability has fallen back to 4%.

This world-shaking military invasion seems to have never happened on Polymarket.

"Tailor-Made" Rule Updates: Using Wordplay to Deny an Invasion

If you want to find evidence on Polymarket that the invasion indeed occurred, there is some: hours after the attack, the platform officially issued a rule clarification:

This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will「run」Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.

In simple terms: U.S. troops entering and bombing doesn't count as an invasion. Trump talking about invasion, occupation, and running the country doesn't count as an invasion. Capturing the president also doesn't count as an invasion.

But the rule still stands: "Military operations intended to establish control count as an invasion."

Even writing job requirements based on a household register probably hasn't been this meticulous. Traders who bet earlier didn't need to consider these non-existent hidden clauses when analyzing the military situation.

Meanwhile, traders (mostly whales) who bet during the period when the "No" odds skyrocketed profited handsomely once again, thanks to the tailor-made rule update.

The same script played out in another market: "Will the US and Venezuela engage in military conflict in 2025?" On December 26, 2025, Trump publicly stated in an interview that the U.S. had destroyed an important facility within Venezuela.

Multiple mainstream media outlets subsequently reported on the incident, with CNN noting the operation was "planned and executed by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)."

Shortly after the event, the platform issued a rule clarification stating that "operations executed by non-military intelligence agencies do not qualify."

What a coincidence, the CIA happens to fall under the category of a non-military intelligence agency.

Without any official U.S. government clarification on the operation's attribution, Polymarket, based on "anonymous sources" in CNN's report, precisely excluded a military strike from the settlement criteria.

Why Were the Rules Changed? Digging into the Trump Family's "Prediction Market" Ties

As losing traders gathered on forums to protest, a more fundamental question emerged: Why would Polymarket risk its reputation being completely destroyed by modifying rules in plain sight?

Clues point to some unusual names at the top of the platform.

Despite its decentralized facade, Polymarket is a private company regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). A pivotal investment that changed its fate occurred last August:

Donald Trump Jr. — the eldest son of the current U.S. President — had his private investment firm formally take a stake in Polymarket, and he himself subsequently joined the company's "Advisory Board."

The timing is intriguing: after Trump Jr.'s investment, Polymarket, which had long operated in regulatory gray areas, quickly obtained an operating license from the CFTC, legalizing its operations in the United States.

And the five highest-ranking commissioners of the CFTC are all directly appointed by the President.

"This is just normal business investment," some commentators tried to downplay the connection. "The Trump administration has always supported cryptocurrency innovation."

The next step would be to verify whether people around Trump are profiting from Polymarket using information asymmetry.

From On-Chain Data to White House Connections: When "Coincidences" Are Too Many to Be Coincidences

Let's turn our attention back to three hours before the raid.

In another related market, "Will Maduro be removed from office before Jan 31, 2026?", a previously inactive new wallet address suddenly injected $30,000 into the market, all betting "Yes." As Maduro was escorted onto a plane, that $30,000 turned into over $400,000 within hours.

The account's behavior pattern was highly suspicious: newly registered, single deposit, betting on only one market within a specific time window, immediate withdrawal after profit. This is the behavior of treating a prediction market as a private ATM.

Who is this "insider"?

On-chain analysis blogger @Andrey_10gwei discovered, by comparing on-chain deposit/withdrawal amounts from exchanges, that the funds for this insider account could be traced back to an account with the domain "stevencharles.sol".

Steven Charles?

Upon opening the website for the core members of WLFI, spearheaded by Donald Trump Jr., one finds that the second person from the left in the front row is a co-founder of the company, also a New York real estate developer who provided campaign funds to Trump, with a friendship spanning nearly 40 years.

(cr: https://x.com/Andrey_10gwei/status/2007904168791454011?s=20)

His full name? Steven Charles Witkoff. A perfect match for the on-chain domain "stevencharles".

A mysterious account turning $30k into $400k in 3 hours, an on-chain funding source named "stevencharles", and a business magnate with inseparable ties to the President's family who can directly influence Polymarket.

Three events with probabilities close to zero, strung together, can no longer be explained away as coincidence.

Conclusion

Polymarket, touted as a decentralized and fair trading platform, might seem to ordinary people as just a financial tool to profit from betting on outcomes.

Yet, perhaps in corners unseen by the common eye, it has long become a white glove for those who can arbitrarily redefine right and wrong itself, frequently using market-intervening rule updates and unequal information asymmetry to repeatedly drain people's assets.

How long ordinary people can survive here depends entirely on the desires and moral boundaries of the elite group.